Howdy, Merry Christmas, and Happy Playoffs. We’re here, doing a Fun With Numbers for the first round of the College Football Playoffs. If you’re new, that means we’ll do an advanced stats preview of the game, talking about things like efficiency, explosiveness, etc. If those are new concepts to you, you might want to check out a glossary like this one.
What Do We Know?
The Miami Hurricanes travel to Kyle Field, their third visit in the last 20 years. They are the 10 seed in the CFP, a controversial selection that
caused more uproar than we have time to discuss. They earned themselves two losses, dropping games against Louisville and SMU in the middle of the season. Originally, I’ll admit to breathing a sigh of relief when the matchup was announced. However, this is a talented and dangerous team. The Ags are a 3.5 point favorite, and while the SP+ and FEI both predict the Aggies to win… it’s incredibly tight (2.6 and .4 point projected margins, respectively). Let’s dive in and see what makes this such a tough draw for the good guys.
Aggie Offense vs Hurricane Defense
We’ve seen what the Aggie offense can do this season. At its best, it’s simply electric. A mobile QB, receivers who get separation and make big plays, and an efficient rushing attack that relies on a powerful and experienced OL to pick up easy yards. At its worst, it’s a mess. A QB who struggles to hit open players and a run game that doesn’t have the explosiveness needed to move the chains if the passing game goes sideways, and an OL that often costs the team field position and points with penalties. We’ve seen both sides this season (sometimes in the same game) and here’s the bad news: This is not a defense you can afford to bring your C-game against.
The Cane defense has been very strong in 2025, only 4 games where opponents scored more than 20 points and ranking Top 10 in DSP+ and DFEI. It’s been a remarkable turnaround by DC Corey Hetherman in his first year at the U, thanks to a lot of experienced defenders and a host of transfers brought in. Teams have struggled to run the ball against this Front 7 all season long and this is a very opportunistic defense, getting at least one turnover every game with the exception of their match with Florida. They do a great job of forcing teams into Passing Down situations (4th in the country) and are 10th in the country in 3rd Down Defense. They don’t have many holes, but in their losses and close games, opponents have found a way to attack the secondary. SMU put up 365 yards in the air and 23 yards on the ground (on 25 attempts!), with 4 receivers making catches of 20 yards or more. Everyone wants to see a healthy Moss back and establish the run and all that classic stuff, but this may not be a game where that is a winning strategy.
Aggie Defense vs Hurricane Offense
It’s another set of evenly matched units on the other side of the ball. The Aggie Defense has been really good for most of the season, although at times it has struggled mightily with big plays (particularly on the ground) and when teams are moving the ball well, they usually find a way to score. Like the Canes, the Ags are elite at getting teams into Passing Downs (3rd) and while they have a shockingly low number of turnovers created, they’re very effective at pressuring the QB.
Much like the Aggies, the Hurricane offense relies on its extremely experienced OL (3 seniors and 2 juniors) to create a semi-efficient run game and protect their QB to allow for easy completions. Whereas the Aggies have had a lot of success throwing to their transfer receivers, a major chunk of Miami’s offensive yardage comes from freshman phenom Malachi Toney, who’s averaging 11.5 Yards/Catch on 106 targets so far and doubles as a dangerous punt returner. At QB, they’ve got a guy who’s played a ton of football in a lot of big spots. Beck’s completion percentage has seen a big jump this year, from 64% back up to 74%, but otherwise his numbers are extremely similar (if not identical in some areas) to Marcel Reed’s. The big thing is interceptions still plaguing him at this stage in his career, Louisville picked him off 4 times in that loss and SMU managed to get 2, accounting for half of his INTs on the season. This has not been a strong point for the Aggie defense this season, so it would be nice to see some havoc in the secondary on Saturday.
So What’s the Verdict?
At first glance, this felt like a much better matchup than some of the possibilities when it came time for Selection Sunday. But the stats tell a story of a high potential team that suffered a midseason dip against conference opponents, but might be playing their best football since. The Aggies offense is going to have to find ways to be explosive against a really stout Hurricane defense, and the defense will have to get pressure on Beck and force mistakes. They’ve been good at doing all of those things at times this season, but not always in tandem.
My Prediction: It’s a tough draw, and I’m thankful the Aggies get this game at home. The Miami defensive front gives me a lot of concern, but by the numbers, this defense isn’t all that dissimilar from some of the top ones the Aggies have already scored a lot of points against (like LSU and Missouri). Maybe more concerning is how efficient this Miami offense has been all season, and the fact that the Aggies haven’t faced many quality offenses late this season. Still, I want to believe this team had a much needed reset following the disheartening end to the season, and I think they come out fired up to play a big, meaningful game at home. Aggies win 28-24, and it’s off to the Cotton Bowl.
Final Notes
Regardless of what happens this weekend, it’s been one of the most fun seasons I can ever remember.
- Bcftoys.com for Brian Fremeau’s FEI data and other fun projects from him.
- ESPN.com is the home for all of Bill Connelly’s SP+ info (as well as the FPI rankings). You’ll need to subscribe to ESPN+ for most of his stuff these days.
- CollegeFootballData.com is a great site for data and charts that you can download and play with on your own time, in case Fun With Numbers isn’t filling that statistical void in your life. Most of my data comes from here.
- And finally my blog can be found here, in case you’re not getting enough of my writing.
