Obviously, these two schools hate each other, but rivalries differ across different sports. For the Michigan Wolverines, expectations are through the roof when it comes to basketball, with the whole conference seeing a target on their back. That is especially true for the Ohio State Buckeyes, who currently sit right around an 11 seed in bracket projections and would love the chance to both knock down their rivals and boost their own resume.
The expanded Big Ten allows for three home-and-home opponents
each season. Michigan has traditionally had just one protected rival, but this season features a second in Ohio State, potentially due in part to interest from each head coach from seeing each other twice annually. Should that be the case indefinitely, expect the fire to ratchet up a bit, starting with this meeting in Ann Arbor on Friday.
Ohio State (13-5, 5-3) at No. 3 Michigan (17-1, 7-1)
Date & Time: Friday, Jan. 23, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: FOX
The teams split in 2023-24 (giving Juwan Howard one of his three conference wins that season), but it was the Wolverines who took the lone battle last year. It went back-and-forth all game long, but Michigan held on in the final minute to escape Columbus with a three-point victory, led by 20 points from Vlad Goldin and another 17 from Danny Wolf.
Two Stats to Watch
Ohio State 2PT Shooting: 57.3% (5th B1G)
The Buckeyes have a top-25 offense nationally thanks to strong shooting, particularly inside the arc. They do not take, or make, many threes, but instead try their luck inside. Bruce Thornton and Devin Royal are the clearest examples of this, drivers who do not favor the long-ball; however, while getting to the rim is the preference, neither is fearful of pulling up from midrange either.
This is where Ohio State’s ability to keep it close will be decided. All season long, Michigan has relentlessly locked down the paint, allowing no easy baskets of any sort. This forces teams into the midrange, which typically is feeding into the nation’s best defensive two-point figure. Friday offers a unique situation where the opposing offense seems more than comfortable settling here.
I am very curious to see how the Buckeyes try to attack. They do not generate a ton of assists, do not get to the line at an extraordinary rate, and struggle a bit with turnovers. Despite this, the Wolverines will let them take the jumpers that Thornton and friends have grown accustomed to, and hitting these shots could force the home team into making some changes on defense. One more thing to watch is Michigan on the defensive glass, as Ohio State is top-three in the conference in offensive rebounding, making some of these less efficient looks a little more enticing.
Michigan Turnovers: 15.0% (11th B1G)
Amongst all of the surprises this season, the improvement in taking care of the ball remains near the top. Just once in conference play did Michigan exceed a 20% turnover rate (Oregon), though the team is still below-average in the Big Ten in this area. Most of these giveaways are non-steals, meaning the Wolverines continue to deal with some lingering sloppiness despite the overall positive progression.
The first half against Indiana featured many of these mistakes, and the last two games have been Michigan’s worst in conference play when it comes to ball security. In come the Buckeyes, who rarely turn anyone over and have actually posted turnover rates over 13% just twice against Big Ten teams. In short: there is no excuse for a sloppy effort against this defense.
For Michigan, the culprits are no one too surprising. Aday Mara and Morez Johnson have been as expected, and Elliot Cadeau is unfortunately living up to his billing. Getting these players to be even a little bit cleaner could turn flip the Wolverines to the right side of average when it comes to turnover rate. One more player to keep an eye on is Roddy Gayle: the former Buckeye is sure to be amped up on Friday, but his five-turnover performance against Indiana needs to be kept in mind.
