The 2026 Baseball Writers Association of America has released the Hall of Fame ballot for 2026, and the first time eligible group, made up of players who last appeared in the majors in the pandemic-shortened
2020 season, is somewhat lacking.
The first time eligibles are:
Ryan Braun
Shin-Soo Choo
Edwin Encarnacion
Gio Gonzalez
Alex Gordon
Cole Hamels
Matt Kemp
Howie Kendrick
Nick Markakis
Daniel Murphy
Hunter Pence
Rick Porcello
Of this group, only Hamels appears to have a serious shot of getting elected by the BBWAA, and even he would seem to be unlikely to be voted in on the first ballot.
Hamels had his best years with the Philadelphia Phillies, who drafted him #17 overall in the 2002 “Moneyball” draft. He and Jake Diekman were traded to the Rangers at the 2015 trade deadline, along with cash, in exchange for Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams, Jake Thompson, Jerad Eickhoff, Alec Asher and Matt Harrison. Hamels spent parts of four seasons with the Rangers, two of which saw the Rangers win the American League West, before being dealt to the Chicago Cubs at the 2018 trade deadline. He pitched well for the Cubs in 2018 and 2019, made one appearance for the Atlanta Braves in 2020, then unsuccessfully attempted comebacks with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2021 and the San Diego Padres in 2023.
With a 59.0 bWAR, Hamels is tied for 69th all time among starting pitchers, along with Urban Shocker, Eddie Cicotte, Mark Buehrle, and Joe McGinnity. JAWS has him 72nd, between Johan Santana and Tim Hudson.
Hamels’ case is hurt by the lack of awards recognition and black ink. He led the league in any category just twice in his career — WHIP, in 2008, and shutouts, in 2009 (with two). He didn’t come close to 200 wins, ending his career with a 163-122 record. He only had four All Star appearances, and only appeared in the Cy Young voting four times, never finishing higher than 5th. He was in the top 10 in pitcher bWAR for his league six times, never higher than third.
My guess is that Hamels gets into the Hall eventually, but not anytime real soon. I’d guess he’ll end up appearing on 30-35% of ballots this year, and will either get elected in his final couple of years of eligibility, or will get selected by a future committee.
Ryan Braun would have the best case among the rest of the group, but for the fact that he not only tested positive for PEDs, but then initially claimed the courier tainted the sample. Even setting that aside, his career was relatively short, and his JAWS score places him 25th among left fielders, between Bobby Veach and Luis Gonzalez. His 47.2 bWAR places him 31st among left fielders. He had a terrific five year peak — from 2008-12 he put up 31.1 bWAR, won the Silver Slugger each year, was an All Star each year, and won an MVP award while also finishing second in one season and third in another. He also was a Rookie of the Year Award winner.
Despite his relatively short career and lacking in the counting stats — he failed to reach 2000 hits or 400 home runs — he’s someone whose hardware and great peak could have gotten him voted in at some point down the road, but for the PED black mark.
Nobody else really has a case. Edwin Encarnacion, Howie Kendrick, Alex Gordon, Shin-Soo Choo and Nick Markakis are all around the 34-35 career bWAR mark, with no extenuating circumstances that would warrant them being elected. Hunter Pence and Gio Gonzalez are around 30, and Daniel Murphy and Matt Kemp are barely over 20 career bWAR. Rick Porcello ended his career with just 18.8 bWAR, though I guess a Cy Young Award and 150 wins was enough for the BBWAA to put him on the ballot.
Hamels and Gonzalez are the only pitchers whose last season in the majors was in 2020 who accumulated at least 20 bWAR. The position players with at least 20 bWAR who didn’t make the ballot are Brian Dozier, Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Kipnis and Neil Walker, so I don’t think we can say anyone got shafted by not being on there.
Next year’s class doesn’t look much better as far as first-timers go, with Buster Posey being the only realistic candidate for future inductions, unless you’re just super hot and heavy about Brett Gardner or Jon Lester.
Here are the returning candidates, along with their vote percentages last year and where they are in terms of years on the ballot.
Carlos Beltrán | 70.3% | Enters 4th year on ballot
Andruw Jones | 66.2% | 9th year
Chase Utley | 39.8% | 3rd year
Álex Rodríguez | 37.1% | 5th year
Manny Ramírez | 34.3% | 10th-and-final year
Andy Pettitte | 27.9% | 8th year
Félix Hernández | 20.6% | 2nd year
Bobby Abreu | 19.5% | 7th year
Jimmy Rollins | 18.0% | 5th year
Omar Vizquel | 17.8% | 9th year
Dustin Pedroia | 11.9% | 2nd year
Mark Buehrle | 11.4% | 6th year
Francisco Rodríguez | 10.2% | 4th year
David Wright | 8.1% | 3rd year
Torii Hunter | 5.1% | 6th year
