This is it. This is the game that gives us the best data point as to how this season is going to go.
Last year Mizzou had some dominant wins followed by some typical, tight one-score-wins that made it seem like Mizzou was, indeed, great but just not as great as it had been in 2023.
Then Texas A&M beat the brakes off of Missouri and, a few weeks later, Alabama slammed the door on any hopes of a Playoff run.
Now that Alabama team is in Columbia and Missouri, once again, has some lofty goals creeping into
their sight lines.
But beating kansas and South Carolina – while important, emotional hurdles to clear – only says so much when they rank 31st and 42nd (respectively) and Mizzou is sitting at 9th and wanting more.
No, playing the 7th-ranked SP+ team at home is going to be the first real answer to the 2025 question of “what can this team be?”. Let’s take a look.
When Missouri Has the Ball
I don’t know if says more about Nick Saban or our modern NIL/portal era that you can watch Alabama play in 2025 and think “wow that defense doesn’t have it like it used to” and “man they don’t win at the line of scrimmage like I thought they would”…and it’s still the 9th-best defense in the country according to SP+. They still have a ton of former blue chippers and are tops in MANY defensive statistical categories. But this ain’t the dreadnaught-class defense that we got used to in the Saban years. Here’s how Mizzou can go about beating them.
Run The Dang Ball
HALLELUJAH ALABAMA HAS A WEAKNESS MIZZOU CAN EXPLOIT. AND BY WEAKNESS I MEAN, LIKE, A RELATIVE WEAKNESS.
Alabama allows a great success rate when opponents throw the ball, sure, but they are in the bottom 100 of defenses in terms of yards per rush allowed and yards per successful rush allowed, all of which should make Kirby Moore’s eyes triple in size like a cartoon wolf. Bama’s secondary gives up small completions and then doesn’t allowed any YAC (nor explosive passes, somehow) so running the ball and grinding them into dust is the best approach here. Let’s set the goal for a 41% success rate on the ground.
Play Ball Control
Here’s an interesting stat: Alabama’s defense does not face that many plays per game. Currently an average of 54.2 per game, which ranks 3rd. Can you guess one of the two defenses that faces fewer plays the Bama? Hint: it rhymes with “Shmissouri Shmigers”.
So in the ultimate showdown of couch-potato defenses that are used to doing the bare minimum and then going home, getting Bama’s defense worn out and grumpy is the key here, especially with such a dynamic offense on the other end. Luckily Alabama’s 3rd-down defense ranks 99th in the country at 42.9% which bodes well for a Missouri offense that converts at a much higher clip than that. Run the ball, kill the clock, set the goal at a minimum of 54% 3rd-down conversion rate.
Finish your dang drives
Missouri’s offense averages 5.35 points when they cross the opponent’s 40-yard line. Alabama’s defense allows an average of 4.56 points when an opponent crosses their 40-yard line. This has the makings of a “first to 35” sort of game so every trip needs to count. Let’s keep it at the average and look for at least 7 scoring opportunities created and at least 5 points per scoring opportunity (35 points!).
When Alabama Has the Ball
Ty Simpson might be the best quarterback in the SEC. Obviously the jury is still out but the dude has been quietly efficient, avoided dumb mistakes (other than that first pass against Vandy), and blessed with an abundance of weapons to distribute the ball to. It’s going to be zero fun watching Alabama play offense against Missouri on Saturday.
HAVOC
Hey. Bad news. Alabama creates a lot of explosive plays through the air. They’re the 10th-best team in the country at doing so. It’s going to be a nightmare watching Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard run routes all over Mizzou’s asses.
So let’s CREATE SOME HAVOC. TFLs, sacks, PDs, pressures…need to see all of it. A lot of it. Like 30% havoc rate levels of havoc, please!
Turn them over!
Alabama currently operates at a perfect “0” in turnover margin, same as Mizzou. They don’t really turn the ball over but, if they do, they inevitably get one back to neutralize it. Mizzou hasn’t been super great at generating turnovers but the defense needs to break serve to let the Tiger offense create a two score cushion and ride it out to the end. The goal is to be at least +1 in turnover margin but I’m thinking it’ll probably be at least +2.
Conclusion
If the only image of Alabama in your head in the Florida State game in Week 1, go ahead and throw that away. Alabama was uninterested in that game and it showed. Since then they’ve gone on a high-level spree of punch outs of their opponents, including the usurper Diego Pavia and his band of Commodores last week.
Here’s a secret though: Bama has been pretty ass on the road. Obviously there was the pantsing at Tallahassee in which they mustered a 4% post-game win expectancy, but their victory of Georgia was EXTREMELY lucky, finishing with a 19% post-game win expectancy in their 3-point victory.
Both of those games? On the road.
Missouri will have experience 375 sun rises and sun sets since they last lost at home, a close defeat to the Heisman-trophy winning quarterback and his fleet of NFL receivers. If you’re looking for a team to break Mizzou’s two-year undefeated home winning streak, this is a team built to do it.
But never has the gap between the Tide and the Tigers been closer. Whichever offense can play their style comfortably and whichever defense gets worn out first will determine the victor of this matchup.
