Sitting at 10-5, the Texans find themselves square in the playoff race. Sure, they are at the 7-seed, but they’ve notched victories over the Bills and Jags (two teams at higher seeding). They lost a close one to the Broncos, but that was as much about a hot Denver team and Houston dealing with a mid-game QB switch. This Saturday, they get the Chargers in a game that had playoff implications for both teams. Right now, Houston is in about as ideal a position as could be hoped for a squad that opened
the season 0-3 and sat at 3-5 after 9 weeks.
To make a trip to the playoffs official, all Houston needs to do is win one of its last two regular season games. Granted, neither a trip to face the surging Chargers, who likely still have some bad memories of their last duel, or a season-ending clash in Houston, where the Colts may still have a pulse for a playoff bid, are “gimmies”. It is entirely possible for Houston to back into the playoffs by losing their last two games, if the Colts drop their game against Jacksonville. Even if the Colts win out and Houston loses out, the Colts will still need a myriad of results to go their way to a degree that you would find better odds navigating an asteroid field.
Not that Houston wants to merely back into the playoffs. They still harbor legit dreams of winning their 3rd straight AFC South crown, and with it, a 3-seed home game that, if things play out right, could see Houston hosting more than just their usual Saturday afternoon Wild Card Weekend matchup. However, the Texans would need to see the Jaguars drop games against the Colts at Indy and against bottom-feeding Tennessee. The percentages say that Houston will enter the playoffs as a wild card for the 1st time in franchise history, meaning that they will open on the road. You know their 0-6 record in road playoff games.
Still, for the Texans, who have effectively been in win-out mode since dropping their home matchup against Denver, the playoffs effectively start now. They will face playoff-type teams from now until the end of their season. The intensity is ramping up, especially with “easy” wins no longer present on the schedule. Then again, they were projected to have an easy win against the dead-last Raiders, and…well…yeah, on any given Sunday. Yes, they could lose one, or even both of their remaining regular season games, but backing into the playoffs does them no good at this point.
For Houston, that means they must play smart. While the offense has been fair to meh over the past few games, they have only 1 turnover since CJ Stroud returned to the lineup. Yes, we’ve seen some stretches of not great play (3rd Quarter at Kansas City, the 1st half against the Raiders), but we haven’t seen the backbreaking mistake. The defense is generally playing up to its reputation and stats as the best in the league, even if they’ve seen some offensive opponents to put numbers (Trey McBride, Ashton Jeanty) that allowed teams to hang around on the scoreboard. Some of the play calling might get conservative (more field goals vs. going for it on 4th down in scoring position), but that would also mean leaning into the strengths of the team (allowing its defense to dictate the flow of the game and giving Stroud the chance to win the game with his arm). [Aside: I know, I know. Relying on the “play calling” of Caley, but while far from perfect, the offensive performance has improved over the season, and you aren’t seeing quite as many poor offensive mistakes/bad calls as we did early in the year].
Of course, the team must juggle the scourge of injuries at this time of year. Attrition at the DT spot is already impacting the defense and if Ersery and Brown must miss any significant time, then an already suspect offensive line will be that much more vulnerable to the better defensive fronts that Houston can expect to see the rest of the season. The running back spot is also concerning, as Mixon is not available to provide the tough running he did last year, and the current options are either an injured rookie (Marks), a former power-back on the down-side of his career (Chubb) and a practice-squad call up (Jordan). While Ogunbowale is a solid 3rd Down/special teams back, if he becomes a primary ball-carrier, that’s not good news for Houston.
However, the Texans have advantages. They already have playoff experience, no small thing at this time of year. Stroud and Ryans have been in this position before, and in their respective road playoff games, the team showed improvement. The defense can travel just fine and while Stroud hasn’t been an MVP player this season, he is more than capable of getting hot and leading the team to victory. With the AFC, if not the NFL, devoid of a dominant squad, Houston is in just as solid position as any team to go on a run, should they get into the playoff dance. A hot QB plus a hot defense, and you have a chance for glory.
Still, one step at a time. Houston must finish the regular season, ideally 2-0, but realistically, no worse than 1-1. Hopefully, they can avoid the big injury, as that is likely to be a season-ending one. The likely road game will not be an easy test (likely a cold weather game for a warm-weather team that plays most of its home games inside). However, the Texans do have the makings of a team that can go on a run. Shouldn’t be boring, if nothing else
