The Miami Hurricanes (9-2) will head to Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving weekend to face the Pitt Panthers (8-3) for a shot at the ACC Championship Game and a potential invite to the College Football Playoff.
The Hurricanes have a 70% win expectancy per ESPN. The game kicks off at noon on ABC. The ‘Canes are about a touchdown favorite on the road. UM leads the series all-time with a 29-12-1 record, but Pitt won the last match-up between the two in 2022.
The Doppler
The Miami Hurricanes are 11th overall in the SP+ per
Bill Connelly’s metrics. The Panthers are 29th in FBS per the SP+ as well. Miami’s offense is 18th, defense 12th and kicking game is 15th. Pitt’s offense is 25th, defense is 45th and kicking game is 40th.
Regarding money downs, the UM offense is 19th on 3rd downs converting 46% of their tries, and 25th on 4th downs while converting just under 65%. On 3rd down Pitt is 116th while converting on only 33% of attempts but 37th on 4th down converting just under 61% of their attempts.
The Hurricanes are 17th in FBS in turnover margin per game sitting at +0.7 while Pitt is 40th at +0.3.
The ‘Canes are 126th in penalty yards per game with 67 yards in flags per contest. Pitt is 134th in FBS with 72 yards in flags meaning this just might be a flag-fest for the ACC refs.
Pitt has a pretty explosive return duo in Kenny Johnson and Deuce Spann. Johnson averages 31.8 yards per KR and 13.6 per PR with a TD. Spann averages 23.2 yards per KR. Pitt’s kicker, Trey Butkowski, is 19-of-21 on field goals this year while missing one PAT.
The Film
The film we’re going to use will be Pitt’s 53-34 win over NC State from October 25th. This was a healthy Hollywood Smothers (NCSU RB) game and QB Mason Heintschel was starting for Pitt.
Pitt was 7-of-15 on money downs while holding NC State to just 4-of-16 on their money downs. Both teams traded one turnover: Pitt an INT and NCSU a fumble. Pitt was flagged for only 46 yards while State was flagged for 97 yards. Pitt kicker Trey Butkowski finished 4-of-5 on FG attempts including a 43-yarder.
PITT OFFENSE
Heintschel didn’t just start, he dominated the Wolfpack. Heintschel averaged 8.8 yards per pass attempt with three touchdowns and zero INT’s. The freshman QB found 11 different receivers with seven averaging double-digit numbers per grab.
Miami native Cataurus Hicks averaged 30 yards per catch with a touchdown. Speedy WR/KR/PR Kenny Johnson also caught a TD pass on 16 yards per grab.
Pitt’s run game against NCSU wasn’t strong. Ja’Kyrian Turner averaged 3.8 yards per carry but did score twice on the ground. Desmond Reid averaged just 3.2 yards per carry with one TD as well. So they were effective when needed, clearly.
The OL allowed zero sacks and four TFL’s to the Pack defense.
Above– When a team plays 1-high as often as NCSU you just have to look off that deep safety. A little shoulder shrug pulls the S to the QB’s right.
Above– Now the Q just drops it in over the LB and inside the other DB. His ball placement isn’t great, he forces the WR to turn back and catch the ball which slows him down. It’s a huge play but not a TD.
Above– I think Heintschel could’ve thrown the slide route here but he sees the rotation and hands off instead. It’s triple option and you’re going to have to cover the QB, RB, and slot against Pitt.
Above– Miami LB’s have the tendency to over run plays as well. The NCSU LB overruns the RB and his hard jump cut and gets shaken for a big gain. Miami LB’s HAVE to work tracking and pursuit this week and hope the extra time spent on it pays off.
Above– This is a Pass Run Option: Swing-Draw. I’m not sure why Heintschel doesn’t throw this if he knows the TE is there to block the overhang but he’s got the numbers. it’s a 4-over-2 anywhere near that play. These can be deadly P-RO’s if the Q can read them right. Instead he keeps and gets drilled for a TFL.
Above– Now the 2-over-2 is clearly an ‘off’ read so Pitt will run an insert zone inside the +5. This goes for a TD. Toure and Bissainthe need to step up big this week.
Above– The Pitt skills are SHIFTY. They’ll attempt to get Toure in 1-on-1’s or they’re stupid and Bell is a good OC. Texas routes, wheel routes… I’d throw ‘em all at the lumbering LB.
Above– This goes for a Pitt TD. The Pack could not tackle Pitt in space, period.
Above– Pitt is forcing defenses to defend the triple option in the red zone. The EMOL is frozen by the potential QB read option. The overhang is frozen by the swing route.
Above– This is the end zone look at how the LB over runs the play and the RB cuts back. The EMOL is too wide to defend the Q and the LB there is gone because of the RPO tag.
PITT DEFENSE
The Pitt defense held CJ Bailey to only 5.6 yards per pass attempt but did allow three TD’s. Bailey was not intercepted although he did fumble the ball away once.
The Panthers allowed the Pack to rush for 8.5 yard per carry as a team but only surrendered one TD on the ground. Smothers, who Miami dominated, averaged 10.8 per carry while scoring that lone TD.
TE Justin Joly caught two TD’s against Pitt while averaging 16.8 yards per catch. The Pack caught four total TD’s including one pass from WR Teddy Hoffman.
The Pack found nine different receivers with four hitting the double-digit yards per catch mark. The Pack OL held Pitt without a sack and only three TFL’s.
Above– So what worked for the Pack offense? The swing route in space looked great. Miami skills need to block at this level. I trust Toney but not Bauman out there in space. This needs to improve to get Pringle the ball out wide.
Above– The stack makes the DB’s communicate. Who is going to take whom? Usually the CB takes out and the S takes in. It’s an “out out out / in in in” call. Don’t take the man, take the threat.
Above– Both DB’s take the “out” and they leave Joly, the “in,” alone. It was a two TD day for the TE and with Elija Lofton picking up steam that could be a nice look for him, too.
Above– The Pitt LB’s over run the RB and he cuts underneath them. Miami can get duo cooking and wash those LB’ers out with the G’s while letting Pringle cut back under it.
Above– NCSU ran a WR screen–and–pass to Joly where he scores but gets injured on the play. If you run enough screens and swings (or jet sweeps) a Toney Pass can open right up. The little ‘stalk and go’ from the TE or WR can be deadly.
Above– The Pitt defense is known for going for the ball. Bailey with a big run but he’s stripped of the ball for a turnover. Miami backs need to tuck the ball high and tight. No free possessions.
Above– I LOVE working the goal post in the red zone. Forget your RZ Fade, work the middle off of play-action where you suck the LB’s up and get a CB 1-on-1 with plenty of room to catch a TD.
The Forecast
The Canyonero Keys to Victory main theme from the summer was another ‘head down and drive’ game like against Virginia Tech and NC State. The individual keys are:
1- Beck needs to protect the ball. The only way Pitt can slow Miami’s offense down is if the ‘Canes turn the ball over. That will come down to Beck and how he deals with whatever Narduzzi throws at him. Pitt likes to play quarters and get up in a WR’s face so I doubt it’s too much of a mystery. Take what’s given and you win the game.
2- Get to Heintschel. The Hurricanes need to continue to bring the heat to opposing QB’s. Mesidor, Poyser on the edge-edge, and Moten have to dominate up front to allow Miami to drop more guys into coverage. Push the pocket in his face and let Mesidor and Bain close in on him from the outside.
3- Come out on fire. Miami cannot afford a flat start like we saw against Louisville, Stanford or Syracuse. This has to be a quick start like the past two weeks. Pitt got out ahead of GT 28-0 before the Panthers knew what hit them.
Forecast: Miami by 3. The Miami Hurricanes are on the road and it’s Thanksgiving weekend. Miami this season is 1-1 outside the state of Florida and 2-1 on the road. I would love to see how Pat Narduzzi plays Malachi Toney knowing that CJ Daniels and Keelan Marion have become effective mid-range weapons for Miami when healthy. Pitt’s defense isn’t good enough to keep up with the Miami offense.
