It’s always a bummer to have to be talking about the draft before the start of the conference finals, yet here we are looking ahead to the offseason for a second straight year.
It’s not all bad though. For draft freaks like me, the final 2+ months before the draft are a wonderful time. I love the scouting process, I love the stakes of the lottery (which will look very different this time next year), and I love learning about prospects I’ve never seen before.
The entire draft cycle is sort of like observing
fine art: there’s no wrong answers, a lot of it is subjective, and the conversation can go anywhere even as we analyze the same things.
While we’re roughly six weeks away from the Wizards making the first selection, we’re in the throes of mock draft season, and we should use this opportunity to learn more about what could be available for Boston with the 27th and 40th picks. And so, we’ll be using the launchpad of one mock draft each time and springboarding it into a conversation of who these draft pundits see the Celtics taking and what those prospects can provide if they truly are Boston-bound.
For this first one, we’ll be starting with The Ringer’s J. Kyle Mann’s post-lottery mock draft on May 11, which has Boston selecting forward Karim Lopez, who is projected to be the league’s first Mexico-born prospect to be selected in the first round.
Here’s what Mann had to say about the pick:
Now that we’ve got a quick blurb, and a little bit of reasoning as to why Boston would go this route at Pick 27, let’s dig a little deeper into who he is and what his potential fit looks like for the Celtics.
Going into this, I know absolutely nothing about Karim Lopez. That means we can start from the ground floor and work our way up, but first, we have to see what resources are at our disposal.
Finding sufficient film on an international prospect can be a real throw of the dice. It’s not like the old days (circa 2014) where you were scrounging for any seconds-long Bruno Caboclo clip you could get your hands on. There are full on 20-minute highlight videos at your disposal for almost any overseas draft hopeful, but the more difficult challenge is finding a full game of film, or even a cutup of a full game, to provide much-needed context on what a prospect is and isn’t at this stage in their development.
Luckily for us, there is just enough Lopez film that’s accessible, giving us a chance for a more well-rounded view of the 6-foot-9 Breakers forward.
It’s a personal preference, but I generally like to start with a highlight package as Step 1 of the process. You start off on a positive note, you see someone at their absolute best, and you get a quick idea of the type of player we’re working with. It’s a great starting point to shape things out, but we can’t let it cloud our judgement too much.
When it comes to Lopez, this was my first impression:
Yeah, pretty cool opener.
Right off the bat, Lopez is a noticeably powerful slashing wing, who possesses NBA size (6’8”, 225 pounds) and a bruising, contact-initiating downhill style. He does well creating off the dribble against fellow pros, often utilizing a hang dribble before accelerating into a promising ballhandling package, and his finishing at the rim is strong. Even when he doesn’t score on the first attempt, you see the energy on second efforts.
In two seasons with the Breakers, Lopez’s strength ultimately proved impactful at this pro level. He averaged 12 points and 6 rebounds in 30 NBL games this year, connecting on 49% of his shot attempts.
He’s also an active off-ball cutter, aggressive help defender and a high-effort rebounder, particularly on the offensive end. On defense, the biggest standout area appears to be the secondary rim protection he provides. On more than a few occasions you can notice him swoop from behind, soar up with his 38-inch max vertical, and send shots to the stands.
This highlight package doesn’t play too much of his on-ball defense, so that’s something we’ll need to look closer at with the additional materials.
This was an exciting highlight reel, but we need to dig deeper.
Highlights are all about the end result. Hardly ever do we see the entire possession unfold leading up to the highlight itself. Let’s get as much context as possible, and really round out an opinion on Lopez as a first-round talent.
Thanks to the wonderful YouTube channel @cashiggy, we have access to game cutups against Perth, Illawarra and Brisbane, along with a godsend video that shows his entire unedited appearance against South East Melbourne.
After a little more tape to chew on, I think we can get a better idea of the strengths and flaws of Lopez.
Starting with Perth, Illawarra, and Brisbane, we get a good look at Lopez as a shooter. Based on his numbers, he hasn’t been a volume-heavy shooter from distance. He took more 3-point attempts this year than he did the season prior, and hit them at a slightly higher 32% clip, but it doesn’t look like a plus-area yet. He has a quick shooting release, with a lot of the power coming from the arms rather than the knee bend.
We also get a better feel for his playmaking. He’s definitely a score-first player, but has shown an ability to hit the low man or a kickout option when he gets into his drives. Once he gets into the paint, tunnel vision does tend to happen, and you’ll see a few out-of-control moments or a loose handle lead to a turnover. When he’s in the restricted area he’s tough to stop, but the path to it can get murky.
We also see a lot more of his defense, particularly in the South East Melbourne game. Defending on the ball, he can take contact as well as he can initiate it, but he does get caught by moves when shadowing in his backpedal. He’s at his best as an off-ball helper, though in that area, he tends to play overly aggressive a little too often, which leads to recoveries that end up a beat or two slow on his closeouts.
Watching Lopez reminds me a bit of what it was like watching Jonathan Kuminga’s G-League Ignite tape. You see a lot of that translatable power, but also a need for real refinement in a lot of other areas. A part of me thinks Lopez could play in an NBA game today and hold his own, but I’m leaning slightly toward him being a project player that requires some patience.
So, in the event Brad Stevens takes a chance on Lopez, how does he fit? I think in this instance, there’d definitely be a patient approach.
Boston has a lot of wing options, and maybe that can change with a trade this offseason, but as it stands, that part of the rotation does feel pretty fleshed out. Lopez does possess a downhill style that addresses the need for more “impact at the rim” that Stevens was talking about at the end of the season, but there’s work to do for him to jump over a bench group that currently features Baylor Scheierman, Jordan Walsh, Hugo Gonzalez and Ron Harper Jr., all of whom earned enough trust to warrant playoff opportunities.
Would this be a pick I’d be a fan of? I think I’d consider myself sort of down the middle. I like him as a prospect, and I think his value at 27 is fair, but it’s not a position I feel needs another development pick at this moment.
At 19 years old, Lopez is in a good spot in his development. He seems to have gotten a lot out of his NBL experience (as did the Breakers fanbase), and he has taken pride in the expectations surrounding him as the next big thing for Mexican basketball. Perhaps that hype will follow him to Boston.
What are your thoughts on Lopez as a Celtic? And what are your takeaways on him as a prospect?
