Good morning. It’s Wednesday, November 26. The Cleveland Cavaliers are 12-7. Let’s find something to feel good about.
The First Sip
Listen, I don’t want to keep talking about last season. But it’s impossible not to compare
the impeccable vibes from a year ago to the murky waters the Cavs are currently treading. Everything feels different, and the preseason expectation of competing for a title is starting to seem like wishful thinking.
But it isn’t doomsday yet.
Losing is never fun. The Cavs have already lost seven times this season. For reference, they didn’t lose their seventh game until January 22nd last season. That stat on its own means nothing. But it is pretty remarkable how much of a difference one year can make.
Of course, Cleveland has been riddled with injuries this season. Darius Garland has hardly played. Max Strus hasn’t played at all. And, the rest of the roster has been sprinkled with setbacks all throughout. Their most recent loss came with seven rotational players on the sideline. And yet, the loss still stung.
So, what’s there to feel good about?
Other than assuming the team will look radically different when (if ever) they are healthy — there are still a handful of encouraging trends. First, Donovan Mitchell is having one of the best seasons in Cavaliers history. He’s averaging a career-high 29.9 points even after his stinker versus Toronto. If this holds, he’ll have the third-highest scoring season the franchise has ever seen.
Other standouts include Sam Merrill’s hot start to the year, Craig Porter Jr’s noticeable improvements, Jaylon Tyson’s developmental leap, and other two-way players like Nae’Qwan Tomlin looking better than expected. These are all the diamonds in the rough of Cleveland’s season so far.
Finally, there’s one more reason for optimism. The 40-20 rule.
If you aren’t aware, winning 40 games before you lose 20 is the golden standard for championship teams. Since 1980, all but four championship teams accomplished this feat. Dominating the regular season is still the ultimate indicator of playoff success. Basically, if you’re a real contender, you’ll more than likely win 40 games before you lose 20.
At their current rate, the Cavs will fall just short of reaching that mark. They need 28 more wins and can only afford 12 more losses. With a win percentage of 63%, they’ll have to win at least 70% of their games moving forward to follow the 40-20 split.
If you’re wondering, last year’s team won 78% of their games. That means even an 8% regression from last year would still be enough for them to get over the hump again this year, if they can turn things around.
We assume they will look better once they are healthy. If that ever happens. Furthermore, Cleveland has had the 9th toughest schedule so far. They have the 10th-easiest strength of schedule remaining. So, if given a healthy roster and an easier schedule, we may look back at the season and remember November as the lowest point of an otherwise triumphant campaign.
The Cavs understand more than anyone that regular season success is no guarantee of anything. But, it’s far worse to enter the playoffs as a team that has been flailing around for seven months. Hitting your stride at the right time is important. The Cavs peaked too early last season. Maybe this time, they’ll overcome early struggles and find their groove later in the calendar.
So, I’m not telling you to place all of your faith in the 40-20 rule. I’m only saying I would hold off on counting this team out before they fall below that mark. There’s plenty of time for things to change for the better.
