Part 1: What If the Colts Drafted Ryan Leaf Over Peyton Manning?
This six-part Colts What If series looks back at some of the biggest turning points in franchise history, from the Peyton Manning draft decision to playoff heartbreak, quarterback pivots and coaching chaos, while revisiting what happened, what could have changed, and how different the Colts might look if one major moment had gone the other way.
For Part 2, there is no better place to go than one of the most painful moments of the Peyton
Manning era!
Mike Vanderjagt’s missed field goal against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2005 divisional round has lived in Colts history for nearly two decades. It was a shocking ending to a bizarre game, one that included a massive comeback attempt, a rare Jerome Bettis fumble at the goal line, Nick Harper somehow being one cut away from one of the greatest playoff returns ever, and then the most accurate kicker in NFL history pushing a 46-yard field goal badly wide right.
It is remembered as the kick that ended the Colts’ season, and that is true, but it’s also important to frame the play correctly.
If Vanderjagt makes that kick, the Colts do not beat the Steelers… they tie the game!
That distinction is important because this was not a guaranteed Super Bowl path that disappeared the second the ball missed. The Colts still would have needed to win overtime against a Pittsburgh team that had outplayed them for most of the afternoon. Still, if Indianapolis survives that overtime period, the entire 2005 playoff picture changes, and the Colts likely become the clear favourite to win the Super Bowl.
The first step would have been surviving overtime
The mistake people make with this what-if is jumping straight from “Vanderjagt makes the kick” to “the Colts win the Super Bowl.”
The field goal would have tied the game at 21, sending it to overtime. From there, the Colts still would have needed to beat a Steelers team that had been physical, aggressive and better prepared for most of the game. Pittsburgh had controlled the early stages, pressured Manning, disrupted the timing of the offense and put Indianapolis in a hole that took nearly the entire game to climb out of.
In the sudden-death overtime format of that era, the next part of the story is basically a coin flip. Maybe the Colts win the toss, get the ball, and Manning finally settles into rhythm. Maybe Pittsburgh wins the toss, leans on the run game, and gets one more drive from Ben Roethlisberger. Maybe the Colts defense, which had already survived the Bettis fumble sequence, creates another stop. Maybe Vanderjagt gets another chance. There are too many variables to pretend the result is obvious.
So the fairest starting point is simple: if Vanderjagt makes the kick, the Colts probably have about a 50/50 chance to win the game in overtime.
That might sound conservative, but it keeps the discussion honest. The Colts were the better team over the full season, but that day was not being played on paper. Pittsburgh had already proven it could win in Indianapolis. Making the kick gives the Colts life, not a win.
But if they do win overtime, then the real pain of this what-if begins.
Denver would have come to Indianapolis
If the Colts beat Pittsburgh in overtime, they host the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game.
The Broncos had already beaten the Patriots the night before, handing Tom Brady his first playoff loss. That meant the AFC title game was waiting to be played in Denver if Pittsburgh won, or in Indianapolis if the Colts survived.
In the actual timeline, Pittsburgh went to Denver and beat the Broncos convincingly. That result does not automatically mean the Colts would have done the same thing, but it does tell us something about the strength of the remaining field. Denver was a good team, but the Broncos were not viewed the way the Colts were viewed that season.
Indianapolis was 14-2 and had been the league’s most complete team for most of the year. The Colts had Manning in his prime, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Edgerrin James, Dallas Clark, an excellent offensive line, and a defense that had taken a major step forward with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis rushing off the edge. They were not just a great offense anymore. They were a balanced, dangerous team with home-field advantage.
The betting market reflected that. The Colts were roughly nine-point favourites against Pittsburgh in the divisional round, while Denver was only around a three-point favourite against Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship Game. If Indianapolis had hosted Denver, it is fair to assume the Colts would have been clear favourites.
Maybe the line is not as high as it was against Pittsburgh. Denver was a better regular-season team than the Steelers and had just beaten New England. But with the game in Indianapolis, the Colts likely would have been at least five-point favourites, maybe higher.
A five-point favourite generally wins somewhere around two-thirds of the time. In the gambling world, 5 point favourites win 68% of the time, so we’ll use that number.
That means if the Colts survive Pittsburgh in overtime, they likely have around a 65-to-70 percent chance to beat Denver at home and reach the Super Bowl.
The Seahawks would have been waiting
The Super Bowl opponent would have been the Seattle Seahawks.
Seattle was excellent that year. They went 13-3, had the league MVP in Shaun Alexander, a strong offensive line, Matt Hasselbeck playing efficient football, and a defense that was good enough to support a championship run. This was not some weak NFC team that accidentally made the Super Bowl.
But the AFC was viewed as the stronger conference, and Pittsburgh entered the actual Super Bowl as a 3.5-point favourite over Seattle. That matters because the Colts were viewed as clearly better than Pittsburgh entering the divisional round. Indianapolis was a heavy favourite over the Steelers, and if the Colts had survived that game, beaten Denver and reached the Super Bowl, they almost certainly would have been favoured over Seattle by a comfortable margin.
Would they have been double-digit favourites? I would say yes. That is aggressive, but it is not unreasonable given how dominant the Colts had been before the playoff loss. At a minimum, they probably would have been favoured by a touchdown or more.
That would put their win probability in the 75 percent range, maybe a little higher depending on the exact line.
Again, none of this guarantees a championship. The Seahawks were good enough to win that game. The Colts had already shown against Pittsburgh that regular-season dominance does not protect you from playoff pressure. Super Bowls can turn on turnovers, injuries, special teams or one bad quarter.
But if Indianapolis gets there, it certainly enters Super Bowl XL as the best team left.
The math makes the miss even more painful
This is where the numbers make the what-if sting.
From the moment Vanderjagt lines up for the kick, even if he makes it, the Colts still have a difficult road. They need to win overtime, beat Denver, then beat Seattle.
If we estimate overtime against Pittsburgh as 50/50, Denver at home as about 68 percent, and Seattle in the Super Bowl as about 75 percent, the full path from the kick looks like this:
50% × 68% × 75% = roughly 25.5%
So no, Vanderjagt making the kick does not mean the Colts probably win the Super Bowl from that exact moment. They would still have had only about a one-in-four chance because overtime against Pittsburgh had to be won first.
But once you remove the overtime game and assume the Colts survive Pittsburgh, the picture changes completely.
68% × 75% = 51%
That means if the Colts win the overtime period against Pittsburgh, they likely have slightly better than a coin-flip chance to win the Super Bowl from that point forward. They would have been favoured over Denver at home, then likely favoured again over Seattle.
That is why the miss hurts so much.
It did not cost the Colts a guaranteed championship. It cost them the chance to remain the strongest team in the tournament.
The 2005 Colts may have been the best team of the Manning era
Part of the pain also comes from the quality of that team.
The 2006 Colts won the Super Bowl, so that team will always be remembered more fondly. That is how sports work. The team that finishes the job owns the legacy. But the 2005 Colts may have been better over the full season.
They started 13-0. They finished 14-2. Manning was still at the height of his powers. Harrison and Wayne were both elite. Edge was still in Indianapolis and gave the offense a complete run-game element that later Colts teams did not always have. The offensive line was strong. The pass rush was terrifying. The defense was fast, opportunistic and more reliable than people sometimes remember because the playoff loss overshadows the regular season.
This was not one of those Colts teams that needed Manning to drag a flawed roster through January. This was a complete team. It had the quarterback, weapons, run game, pass rush, home field and championship expectation.
That is why the Steelers loss felt different.
The Colts had lost painful playoff games before. They had lost to New England. They had been bullied. They had been criticized for not being physical enough. But 2005 felt like the year the path had finally opened as New England was eliminated. The AFC Championship Game would have been at home. The Super Bowl opponent was beatable.
And then the season ended on a kick that missed so badly it still feels surreal.
A win may have changed Manning’s legacy earlier
There is another layer to this.
If the Colts win that game in overtime, beat Denver, and then beat Seattle, Peyton Manning wins his first Super Bowl one year earlier. That changes the conversation around him immediately.
The “Manning can’t win the big one” narrative was still very loud at that point. It was unfair in many ways, but it was there. The 2006 title eventually ended that discussion, but if the 2005 team wins it all, Manning gets that burden lifted sooner and does it with arguably the best team he had in Indianapolis.
It also changes the way the 2006 season is viewed. Maybe the Colts repeat. Maybe they do not. Maybe the pressure is different. Maybe the defense does not have the same magical playoff turnaround. Maybe history plays out in a completely different way.
But the main point is that 2005 was not just a missed team opportunity. It was a missed legacy opportunity. Manning’s prime Colts teams were good enough to win more than one Super Bowl, and this was one of the clearest chances.
The 2006 title saved the era from being remembered as a disappointment. A 2005 title could have made the era feel even bigger.
The final verdict
If Mike Vanderjagt makes the kick against the Steelers, the Colts still have work to do.
They do not automatically win the game. They do not automatically beat Denver. They do not automatically beat Seattle. The kick only sends the divisional-round game to overtime, and in that moment, the Steelers still had a very real chance to win.
But if the Colts survive overtime, they probably become the Super Bowl favourite.
Denver would have come to Indianapolis for the AFC Championship Game. The Colts likely would have been favoured by around five points or more. If they won that, Seattle would have been waiting in the Super Bowl, and Indianapolis likely would have been favoured again, perhaps comfortably.
That is what makes this one of the biggest what-ifs in Colts history. It was not just about a missed field goal. It was about the best regular-season team of the Manning era losing its chance to stay alive in a playoff bracket that had opened beautifully.
The kick did not cost the Colts a guaranteed championship.
It cost them a chance to remain the best team left.
