The Atlanta Braves
and their league leading offense are facing the Detroit Tigers having just won twenty games before the month of May for the first time in franchise history.The Braves lead MLB with 5.72 runs scored per game. To put that in perspective, if they continue to score this many runs per game it would be the second most in franchise history since MLB started playing 162 games. It would be more than the historic 2003 high octane offense, and just below the 2023 season where the Braves tied
the record for most HRs in a season by a team.
This offense will be tested in this series because the Braves are projected to face Casey Mize (2.51 ERA), two-time reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (2.72 ERA), and new Tiger Framber Valdez (3.41 ERA). The Braves have already faced tough pitching this season, but not a gauntlet like this.
The key for the offense will likely be to work counts and get to the bullpen as early as possible because the Tigers’ bullpen currently ranks in the bottom half of MLB in ERA, even with Kenley Jansen anchoring the back end.
With Mize being a righty, the biggest question mark was whether Michael Harris would get the start in CF so that Dominic Smith could slot in at DH again. With the day off, it would make sense that Harris may be rested up enough and that Drake Baldwin would be rested to be behind the dish. On paper, tonight’s game is the one the Braves could do the most damage offensively, and they may need it with Martin Pérez showing signs of upcoming regression to the mean, the offense may need to step up tonight.
As predicted, Harris back at CF means Smith is at DH. Another interesting note is that Riley is still below Harris and Albies in the order.
No player on the Braves has more at-bats against Mize than six. Matt Olson leads the team in at-bats and has made good of them with a HR, .500 average, and 1.625 OPS. Outside of Olson the rest of the team is pretty much a question mark.
Martin Pérez has spent a decent amount of time in the AL Central in his career so it should come as no surprise that a few of the Tigers have a decent number of at-bats against him. Four players have fourteen or more at-bats against him, and none have done more damage than Gleyber Torres. Torres has three HRs in his twenty-two at-bats against Martin Pérez which has resulted in a 1.087 OPS.
Good news for the Braves is that their bullpen is the polar opposite of the Tigers, so if Martin Pérez can suppress the Tigers’ league average offense, then the Braves have a decent chance of pulling out a game one victory.
First pitch is at 7:15 EDT.
