We might still be a couple of months away from the start of the 2026-27 NHL season, but it is not too early to start taking a look at some projected performances for the Pittsburgh Penguins this season. So let’s start our yearly look at some over/unders.
We start today with Ben Kindel and some of the potential young players that could make an impact or see significant playing time for the Penguins this season.
Ben Kindel: Over/under 18.5 goals
The play of Ben Kindel was one of the biggest (and most surprising) developments for the 2025-26
Penguins. After being initially viewed as a potential reach and overdraft at no. 11 overall, Kindel arrived in Pittsburgh in training camp and kept checking every box along the way to eventually earn a spot on the opening night roster.
Then he stuck around beyond the opening nine games.
Then he ended up becoming one of their best all-around players at only 18 years old and scored 17 goals in 77 games.
His ceiling remains a bit of an unknown, but there is no reason why he can not be an outstanding No. 2 center for the next decade. And potentially more.
So what is a reasonable expectation for him going into year two?
Let’s just look at some comparable seasons and performances.
Since the start of the 2005-06 season there have been 11 players, outside of Kindel, that scored between 10 and 20 goals in their age 18 season in the NHL. Enough goals to be a full-time player, but not quite enough to look like an immediate superstar.
It’s a list that includes Andrei Svechnikov, Sam Gagner, Valeri Nichushkin, Evander Kane, Zach Benson, Kaapo Kakko, Aaron Ekblad, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Cole Sillinger, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and David Pastrnak.
There are a lot of REALLY good players on that list. Pastrnak and Svechnikov are the best-case scenarios. Nugent-Hopkins, Benson, or Nichushkin would be outstanding.
There are also some that kind of stalled out and disappointed.
But the one thing that stands out about almost all of their year two performance is that there was not always a huge immediate progression, and sometimes there was even a little bit of a regression.
Nugent-Hopkins, for example, scored only four goals in year two. Pastrnak scored just 15. Svechnikov was the only one that topped 20 in his second season. As a group, they averaged a 17-goal pace over 82 games in year two of their careers. Sometimes the sophomore slump and a regression is a real thing. It doesn’t mean the career doesn’t pan out. It just means progress and development is not always steady and consistent, and does not always work the same way for people. It is not always a steady, consistent line.
It’s also entirely possible that the goal-scoring numbers do not take a big increase, but that the player becomes a better all-around player.
So with all of that in mind, I am saying over/under goals for Kindel in 2026-27 is 18.5. That might seem underwhelming given his rookie total, but I think it’s right in line with what should probably be reasonably expected.
Rutger McGroarty: Over/under 10.5 goals
I still believe in McGroarty, and I still think he has a chance to have a good NHL career and be a player that can make it. It might not be a first-line star, but I could still see him being a very good second-line or middle-six winger. You still need players like that. It can be beneficial if they come from within the organization.
The 2025-26 season was a struggle for him as injuries limited his start to the season, and he never really got going at the NHL level. Or got much of an opportunity given how deep the roster turned out to be. At the moment, there is still a big-time log-jam at forward, but I still have to think (or want to think) he can force his way into the lineup at some point and produce.
I liked what I saw from him this past season, even if it didn’t always translate into offense at the NHL level. But he was still a point-per-game player in the AHL, and still showed some goal-scoring touch. Let’s set the over/under here at 10.5 goals.
Harrison Brunicke: 40.5 NHL games
I am not even looking at goals or total points here. Just NHL games. Brunicke’s development is going to be enormous for the Penguins for a couple of reasons.
For one, he is one of the prospects in the organization that might actually have top-line (or top-pairing) potential. He also showed enormous improvement as the 2025-26 season went on as he played in multiple different levels of the sport. By the time the season ended, he was playing a big-time role in the AHL as a 19-year-old, and was one of Wilkes-Barre’s most trusted and best all-around defensemen.
All of that is encouraging.
But it is also important to keep in mind he is still only going to be 20 years old and has still only played 20 games of pro hockey. The Penguins have a lot of options on defense right now, and especially on the right side, and his proper development still has to take priority over everything else. He is too important long-term to mess this up.
I do not necessarily think it would be a bad thing or hurt him to get some time in the AHL. It’s where he should have been this past season if he were eligible for it. But will he force the Penguins’ hand and play well enough to be an NHL regular? Or will the Penguins try to push him no matter what?
Ville Koivunen: 5.5 goals
This is not really a question of Koivunen’s ability or potential, but perhaps more of a question of whether or not the Penguins still believe in him.
I am not sure of the latter.
He was perhaps the most underwhelming of the Penguins young players in 2025-26, scoring just two goals in 39 regular season games.
For his career, he is only at two goals in 47 games.
There are still some things to like in his game. His possession metrics are consistently strong. He seems to be a good playmaker. He has been outstanding in the AHL. But something is missing when he gets to the top level, especially when it comes to his ability to get pucks on net and score goals.
The Penguins reportedly told him this was a big offseason for him, and the pressure seems to be on. He is going to be 23 years old this season, and while that is not old in hockey player years, it is starting to get into danger territory for prospects.
Bill Zonnon: 10.5 points
I do not expect Zonnon to start the season in the NHL, but I do think there is a real chance we see him at some point. Either as a temporary call-up in an injury situation, to replace somebody that is traded, or because he simply forces the issue and plays his way into a spot. At the time of the 2025 NHL Draft, it almost felt like he was the one guy among the three first-rounders that was the best bet to be an NHL-ready player. The way he arrived in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton late in the season did not really do anything to hurt that reputation. He was outstanding from the moment he arrived.
The most likely outcome for this season is that he gets a full season in Wilkes-Barre and becomes a bigger factor in 2027-28, but I am not going to eliminate the possibility of him exceeding that expectation. Will he get enough games, and play well enough, to top 10.5 points?
Sergei Murashov: .900 save percentage
If there is a prospect in the organization that has “franchise player” upside, it is most definitely Murashov.
The talent is there.
The ceiling is high.
His time in North America so far has been highlighted by dominant play and dominant numbers.
It is all very, very encouraging.
But he is a goalie, and still a young goalie with almost no NHL resume at this point. There is not a more volatile, more random, and more unpredictable type of player in the NHL than this. The ceiling is high. The floor is low. The Penguins seem ready to commit to him and Arturs Silovs as their goaltending duo for the season, and it will be the biggest X-factor in how their season goes.
Murashov might eventually end up reaching his ceiling at some point in the future. I do not expect it right away as a rookie. I would be happy with anything that is league average or above, and a .900 save percentage would be decently above the league average. Can he get there this season? It would be a nice step and a nice debut as a full-time NHL goalie if he can.
