Selection Sunday is finally here. It is time to pick who I think should be in the field, and then an hour later complain about why the committee did not agree with me. Disclaimer: this is not my attempt to predict what the committee will do. This is purely my opinion of who deserves to be where, based on the criteria and rules laid out by the committee.
For Illinois, most of mine (and the bracketologi around the interwebs) have shown the Illini on the 2-line for most of 2026. Unfortunately, conference
tourney season has not been kind to the Illini. Besides choking away a 15-point lead, teams below them on the 3-line had good conference tournaments. Iowa State beat Arizona State and Texas before falling in a tight one to Arizona. Purdue has won three straight (and is tied at half with Michigan, not that that matters). Vanderbilt made the SEC championship, including a neutral site win over Florida. For me, those three teams clearly leap frogged Illinois this week. Illinois is in a cluster with Michigan State, Gonzaga, and Virginia for the second 3-seed to the first 4-seed. I would not be completely shocked if the Illini fell all the way to the 4-line, but don’t think Virginia has the top-end wins to compare with Illinois, and I also kept Illinois above Gonzaga, who only has two Quad 1A wins versus five for Illinois. The biggest punishment for falling to the 3-line is losing out on Saint Louis, as Iowa State and Purdue take those pods, pushing Illinois to Oklahoma City.
On the bubble, I think SMU should be the last team in, breathing a sigh of relief that VCU held off Dayton today, because I would have had VCU in the field either way. Miami (OH) makes my bracket as the third last team in, and I will be shocked if they do not make the field as everyone seems to respect the undefeated regular season. SEC fans will hate my bracket, as I have Texas, Oklahoma and Auburn all in the first four out. They’ll gripe about being punished for playing in such a strong league. They have no right to complain though. Texas was comfortably in, and then completely fell apart, losing at home to Oklahoma in their season finale and then opening the SEC tournament with a loss to Ole Miss. Kudos to Auburn for playing 17 quad 1 games but winning only seven Q1/Q2 games in 22 tries is not going to cut it, especially since they do not have a clean bottom of the resume either, with losses to SEC bottom feeders Mississippi State and Ole Miss at home. Oklahoma came on late but only has one win over a team in the top 30 and also has bad losses to South Carolina and Mississippi State. If I were to guess, the committee will leave out San Diego State to appease the SEC (Texas gets in), but I do not believe the resume backs that up. While all these bubble teams struggled in the Q1 games (Texas did the best) and beat every Q4 team they played, here is their records in Q2/Q3 games:
San Diego State: 12-3
Auburn 7-3
Oklahoma 8-5
Texas 4-5
Too many slip ups against the middling teams for any of those SEC teams to cry about getting left out.
East (Washington D.C.)
- Duke (Greenville)
- UConn (Philadelphia)
- Illinois (Oklahoma City)
- Arkansas (San Diego)
- Kansas
- North Carolina
- Miami (FL)
- Ohio State
- TCU
- Saint Louis
- UCF
- High Point
- Hawaii
- Wright State
- UMBC
- Queens/Siena
Notes on the Region:
Illinois starts off with the Mike LaTulip Bowl and Wright State. As frustrating as Illinois has been of late, I am not worried about a potential first round upset, as Wright State does not shoot a bunch of threes and does not have the size to keep the rebounding battle close.
In the second round of my projected 6-seeds, North Carolina is clearly the team you want. Their star freshman Caleb Wilson is out for the year, and they do not have the firepower for a deep run without him. The good news ends there though, as it is hard to picture Illinois going through UConn AND Duke, the two teams that most recently mollywhopped the Illini.
Midwest (Chicago)
- Michigan (Buffalo)
- Iowa State (Saint Louis)
- Gonzaga (Portland)
- Virginia (Philadelphia)
- Alabama
- BYU
- Kentucky
- Clemson
- Santa Clara
- VCU
- San Diego State/SMU
- Akron
- Hofstra
- Kennesaw State
- Tennessee State
- Long Island
Notes on the Region:
Michigan does not get punished for losing the Big Ten tournament final, as it comes too late to adjust, otherwise they might fall below Arizona, not that it changes much. An Elite Eight matchup of Michigan and Iowa State would be a clinic in pressure defense. There are some lower seeds capable of making a run here and spoiling that regional final, with Gonzaga, Alabama, BYU and Kentucky all being talented enough to give the top two problems.
West (San Jose)
- Arizona (San Diego)
- Purdue (Saint Louis)
- Vanderbilt (Greenville)
- Saint John’s (Tampa Bay)
- Wisconsin
- Louisville
- Saint Mary’s
- Georgia
- Iowa
- Texas A&M
- Mizzou/Miami (OH)
- McNeese
- North Dakota State
- Troy
- Idaho
- Lehigh/Prarie View A&M
Notes on the Region:
If there is any silver lining for Illini fans, it is seeing how quickly Purdue was able to turn it around from team in crisis to Big Ten Tournament Champions. Their run cost the Illini Saint Louis, but it shows talented teams can sometimes find their game at just the right time, which is what we are all waiting for. Wisconsin is the biggest enigma team perhaps in the whole bracket. McNeese is dangerous and I could see Wisconsin losing round 1 but could also see them shooting lights out a couple games and taking out Saint John’s and Arizona. Like I needed added motivation to root for the underdog, but I need Miami to beat Mizzou here, to quiet the SEC mob.
South (Houston)
- Houston (Oklahoma City)
- Florida (Tampa Bay)
- Michigan State (Buffalo)
- Nebraska (Portland)
- Texas Tech
- Tennessee
- Utah State
- UCLA
- Villanova
- North Carolina State
- South Florida
- Northern Iowa
- Cal Baptist
- Penn
- Howard
- Furman
Notes on the Region:
I do not think the committee will agree with me, but after Florida’s loss to Vanderbilt I moved Houston above Florida on the seed line. Their resumes are really tight, but I personally like that Houston has not lost to anyone outside of Q1A, while Florida has lost to TCU, Mizzou and Auburn. It does not make much difference, as they would just flip flop one and two in the region and Houston would still feel like the home team in the Elite Eight. Look at South Florida as a potential Cinderalla here to the Sweet Sixteen; they are good, and Tennessee and Michigan State are very gettable.
First Four Out: Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Auburn
Next Four Out: Indiana, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Cincinnati
Bids By Conference:
Big Ten: 9
SEC: 9
Big 12: 8
ACC: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Mountain West: 2
MAC: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
