For a while, it looked like the trip to Iowa City would be a potential pitfall for the Michigan Wolverines on their quest for a Big Ten championship. Instead, Dusty May and crew locked up that outright title before the calendar even hit March, and now the final two games of the regular season — as well as the conference tournament — are really just for positioning across the 1-seed line.
The other reason Thursday’s contest is much less daunting than before is the recent slump of the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Still likely in the Tournament field, and a top-25 team per Kenpom, Iowa has dropped four of its last six, including really bad stumbles against Maryland and Penn State. Year One under Ben McCollum still looks like a success, but the Hawkeyes are limping through the end of the season.
No. 3 Michigan (27-2, 17-1) at Iowa (20-9, 10-8)
Date & Time: Thursday, Mar. 5, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA
TV/Streaming: Peacock
There are always some fun ones when these teams meet. The last four contests have gone two apiece, with the Wolverines squeaking out a win in December 2024 thanks to a Roddy Gayle (goaltended) layup in the final seconds at Crisler. The teams split the series the season prior, with Michigan recording a 10-point victory the last time these schools faced off at Carver-Hawkeye.
Two Stats to Watch
Iowa Avg Possession Length: 20 sec (18th B1G)
Is this football? The Iowa offense is average in terms of efficiency, but dead last in conference play when it comes to pace. This methodical approach does not lead to many assists or particularly efficient shooting, as point guard Bennett Stirtz is far and away first on the team in both usage and offensive rating, and the Drake transfer is averaging over 20 PPG.
Stirtz is not Keaton Wagler, but after watching Yaxel Lendeborg’s defensive masterclass in Champaign, no opposing guard is going to feel great about facing this defense. The Wolverines are absolutely capable of locking in the for the entire length of a shot clock, and it could get messy if Iowa is forced to play outside of its comfort zone tempo-wise because of the score.
The play on the opposite end of the court is of course going to look significantly different. Michigan will sprint in transition and attack the rim relentlessly, and even the half-court offense can be quick. As the better team, the visitors should be able to control the pace, and that is not how McCollum wants to play. The only way the Wolverines slip is if they get sloppy, playing a little too free having already won the conference.
Iowa Foul Rate: 40.7% FTA/FGA (18th B1G)
The Iowa defense is top-6 in the Big Ten — hey, this is football! — but struggles against twos (17th) and struggles with fouls (18th). These are the exact areas that a defense does not want to have to figure out against a team like Michigan, but with an overmatched frontcourt there is really no avoiding the imbalance in this one.
Aside from Ohio State, nearly even recent opponent has feasted against the Hawkeyes on the interior, and even the Buckeyes drew a ridiculous number of fouls. The Wolverines have not always gotten to the line at a high clip, but it felt like a significant factor against Purdue and Illinois, and Iowa will have no choice but to cling on for dear life against the giants inside.
This is May’s chance to try out some new lineups with LJ Cason gone, and Gayle is one of those players who gets a shot at stepping up. Though both his jumper and finishing have struggled to be consistent, this is a game where he can use his ability to get to the hoop to make a dent in the box score. Michigan could use his aggressiveness this month, and this game represents a great chance to kick that off.
