After Alabama’s upset loss at Georgia in Athens last Tuesday, I wrote the following regarding the Crimson Tide’s postseason outlook:
Alabama’s chances of playing its way up to a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament just got a lot harder as well, as it will likely take a deep run in Nashville (assuming the committee hasn’t already set the bracket before the Tide even takes the floor on Friday) in order for Nate Oats’ team to push up to that 3-line and avoid sharing a quadrant with one of the absolutely loaded
1-seeds this year.
In hindsight, I may have been a bit pessimistic in that analysis. The Tide got a lot of help from others battling for one of those coveted 3-seeds – Purdue lost at home to Wisconsin over the weekend, Texas Tech got swept in their two games last week, Nebraska got waxed by UCLA in their midweek match, and Kansas laid an enormous egg against an Arizona State team that turned around and fired its coach yesterday. Comparatively, losing a close game at Georgia really looks a whole lot better than those other outcomes, as the Dawgs are solidly in the NCAA Tournament field, and said loss would actually register as a Quad 1A game.
So, maybe a super deep run won’t be needed for Nate Oats’ boys this week. In fact, as of this writing, Bracket Matrix – an aggregate of all legitimate ‘bracketologists’ projected brackets for the year – actually has Alabama listed as the final 3-seed:
Now, that’s an incredibly slim margin over a Gonzaga team that beat Alabama pretty handily on a neutral floor earlier this year. However, the Zags have been without their starting big man, Braden Huff, and likely won’t have him back for the NCAA Tournament. The selection committee has said time and again that they take into account who will be available for each team, and Gonzaga has been substantially worse sans Huff. Either way, it’s probably best to root against the Zags tonight as they play bubble-team Santa Clara in the WCC Championship Game.
For Alabama’s part, it helps that the Tide is starting off in the Quarterfinals where a single win would likely register as a “deep run”. It helps further that Alabama’s opponent will likely be another Quad 1 opportunity, as the Tide will face whoever emerges from the Georgia/Texas/Ole Miss quadrant of the bracket. I personally would love another shot at Texas or Georgia in a game where they don’t have one of their guards making everything they throw up in the general vicinity of the basket.
Current Post-Season Odds
All in all, Alabama’s overall NCAA Tournament outlook is similar to where it has been most of the Oats Era – if things break a certain way, the Tide is hitting shots, pushing the pace, and at least competing on the glass, the Final Four is absolutely in the range of outcomes. ‘Bama may not be one of the outright favorites like they were in 2023, but pretty much every other year during Oats’ tenure the Tide is one of the trendy dark horses capable of making a Final Four run.
Avoiding the one-seeds until that final weekend in April would go a long way in making that a reality. Hopefully, Alabama can make the case for a spot on the 3-line this week in Nashville. More on the SEC Tournament to come later this week, but for now, here’s a glance at where FanDuel currently values the Tide’s chances of cutting down some nets in the Big Dance:
Odds to Make Final Four: 25/1
Odds to Win NCAA Tournament: 100/1
* Odds Subject to Change
Visit College Basketball Odds: NCAA Men’s Lines & Spreads | FanDuel for more information and to place your wagers.
