Welcome back to the 2025-26 edition of Smash or Pass, in which we examine potential free agent and trade targets to determine whether the Red Sox should pursue them and what it would take to land them. Next up, a future Hall of Famer who is still hanging on.
There are Top 50 free agent lists complied by FanGraphs and MLB Trade Rumors and a Hall of Famer is still sitting unsigned as 2025 comes to a close. That’s not an exaggeration in this case: Justin Verlander, 20-year MLB veteran, is sitting on over
80 bWAR in his career and is, pending something unexpected or a ton of negative WAR seasons pitching until he’s 60, going to sail into the Hall of Fame.
Who is he and where does he come from?
Justin Verlander was drafted by the Detroit Tigers second overall in the 2004 draft. He made his major league debut on July 4, 2005 and was a force behind the Tigers 2006 World Series appearance. Verlander ultimately spent 13 seasons with Detroit, was traded to the Houston Astros where he spent 7 years (with half a season of New York Mets during this time because LOLMets), and then spent 2025 with the San Francisco Giants. He’s planning on spending his age 43 season in the majors pitching, hopefully, for a contender.
Is he any good?
Justin Verlander is on the fast track to a plaque in Cooperstown overall. But when you look at his last few years, well, he’s probably seeing his age catch up with him. Fastball down, exit velocity up, chase down, hard hit up. But he’s actually not doing that much worse. Granted he was still over 40 in 2023 as well.
Justin Verlander is just continuing to retire batters. He was still worth 1.2 bWAR, tossed 152 innings. His fastball velocity is a far cry from his younger days but he’s 43! I guess don’t tell Aroldis Chapman.
TLDR; just give me his 2025 stats
IP: 152
ERA/FIP: 3.85/3.85
K/BB: 137/52
Why would he be a good fit on the 2025 Red Sox?
He’s not the True Number 2 (TM) that people are looking for, but he’s a pretty known quantity at this point. Is he a third starter? Probably not. But he’s still rotation capable. Especially in a deep rotation. If he’s healthy. And there must be some veteran value he can provide. He’s older than Andrew Bailey.
Why wouldn’t he be a good fit on the Red Sox?
Well, the rotation is crowded and Verlander is old, though of course he probably only wants one year. But also he’s gonna be old and expensive and while more valuable than replacement level, not as valuable as other players who could take that roster spot.
Show me a cool highlight.
Smash or pass?
This is a hard PASS. There are much better players to sign or trade for. Verlander will probably end up on a team in 2026 if he’s willing to accept their terms. It just shouldn’t be the Red Sox. He’s a future Hall of Famer though and that’s enough in my book to get him a Smash or Pass article.
