For the 2026 Orioles, there is a glass half full and a glass half empty way to look at their month of May. The glass half empty crowd would focus on the fact that the O’s went 13-16 in the second month of the season and currently sit four games below .500 at 28-32. The glass half full folks can point to Baltimore’s 7-3 finish to the month and the fact that they only find themselves one game out of a Wild Card spot in an American League that is struggling to find good teams.
And yet, while this remains
a frustratingly inconsistent Orioles team, May also showed increasingly mounting evidence of why this can be a playoff team. Through the second month of the season, we saw many Orioles reverse poor starts to the year as well as a largely resurgent pitching rotation. With that in mind, let’s look at three trend that have the Orioles’ arrow pointing toward a possible postseason birth after May.
Positive steps by Basallo, Mayo and Cowser
None of the trio of Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo or Colton Cowser go off to hot starts for their 2026 campaigns. Basallo posted a modest triple slash of .232/.315/.439 (.754 OPS) after rebounding from a rough start, when he often looked like a 21-year-old going through the struggles of adjusting to the majors.
Mayo and Cowser were just straight-up bad players in the first month of the season. The 24-year-old infielder was simultaneously trying to iron out the swing and miss in his game while adjusting to being a full-time 3B—and it showed. The prodigiously powerful Mayo only managed to slash .169/.244/.325 across March and April, while posting a 32.5% strikeout rate.
For Cowser, his early-season struggles were a continuation of a hole he’s had in his game since his rookie year. The former N0.5 pick in the 2021 draft has always been a great fastball hitter, but never sees any heaters because he’s so poor against everything else. Through the first month of the 2026 season, Cowser was 4-for-20 with a 48.8% whiff rate on offspeed pitches, while also going 0-for-17 with a 50% whiff rate against breaking pitches.
All of them were significantly better in May, with Basallo making the biggest jump. The rookie backstop’s May not only proved he’s already the Orioles’ best hitter but also one of the best hitters in all of baseball.
His .338 average in May was 3rd among players with at least 70 PA, just behind Rays’ All-Star Jonathan Aranda and multi-batting title winner Luis Arraez. His .597 last month ranked 7th among players with 70+ PAs, outpacing power hitters like Rafael Devers and Kyle Schwarber. Even more impressive, Basallo made this jump by cutting down his whiff rate (34.5% to 27.4%) and strikeout percentage (26.4% to 24.7%) while swinging at more pitches outside the zone (35.6% to 42.1%)
For Mayo, the turning point seems to have been his game-losing error in the finale of a series in his hometown, Miami. In the aftermath, Mayo had a quote about how his dog helps him keep perspective admist failure and since then he’s been a different player. In 15 games after the error, Mayo is .267/.365/.511 (.876 OPS) with three long balls. To watch Mayo take ABs now, he has a confidence about him that speaks to a player figuring things out. Mayo has also become a must play against LHPs, as he has a 1.013 OPS against lefties this season.
Cowser’s season has been redefined thanks to his two recent walk off homers and another three-run shot in the series finale win vs. Toronto. His May looks like the player Birdland alwasy hoped he’d be, slashing .275/.362/.529 (.891 OPS) with four homers and 15 RBIs. The biggest difference for Cowser is improved results against breaking balls, with the outfielder hitting .316 and slugging .568 against breaking balls in May.
Bradish and Baz finding their groove
The Orioels built this rotation on the idea that Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish would be cornerstones at the top, and Shane Baz would provide it depth as he realized his potential. Rogers remains a bit of a disappointment, posting a 10.31 ERA in four starts since coming off the IL on May 12th. However, the Orioles’ N0.2 and No.3 starters are rounding into form, as they showed throughout May.
Bradish was supposed to be the 1B to Rogers’ 1A, but after a true return to form this past month, Bradish is now atop the rotation power rankings. It started off rought for the 29-year-old, who had a 5.03 ERA after giving five runs over four innings in a loss to the Yankees. Since then, the right-hander’s dominated, posting a 1.72 ERA across five starts while posting 30 strikeouts over 31.1 innings. Throwing more curveballs has been the key to Bradish’s turn around, as hitters hit .091 with a 45.6% whiff rate against the breaking ball.
Baz has been equally dominant of late, posting three consecutive quality starts, including two against his former team the Rays. His most recent outing was his best in an Orioles uniform, limiting Tampa to one run over seven innings while punching out nine. We’ve only seen Baz make small tweeks to his reportoire, throwing slightly less cutters, slightly more sinkers, while still primarily relying on his four-seamer and knucklecurve. The 26-year-old has shown off his best breaking ball this past month, holding hitters to a .184 average while getting more swings and misses.
Baltimore is still figuring out the rest of the rotation around Bradish and Baz. Sometimes Chris Bassitt is good, sometimes he looks like Charlie Morton 2.0. Brandon Young had three quality starts in May, but he also may be one bad start from being back on the Norfolk express. Howevcer, the Orioles rotation was so bad at one point that it felt like the anchor that’d drag them back out of the playoff. With Bradish and Baz clicking, the rotation can finally stand on solid ground and help the O’s make up ground in the Wild Card race.
Struggles for Gunnar and Adley
While many members of the lineup had strong Mays, the same can’t be sad for franchise stars Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman. The Orioles’ star SS continued his prolonged cold stretch to start the year, hitting .225 with a .629 OPS in May. And while Gunnar has remained consistently disappointing, Adley has gone from hot to cold. The former All-Star backstop came into May hitting .356 with an OPS over 1.000. After hitting .188 with an OPS below .700 this past month, Rutschman went from the heartbeat of this offense to one of its biggest pain points.
So how are struggling stars a sign of good things to come? Common sense mixed with a dash of optimism says both should rebound to something far awy from their current location in Struggle Town. If/when they do, it should boost this lineup to the upper echelon most expected it to occupy.
