Just like that, there is no real reason to parse scoring stats for the Cubs anymore. With 33 runs over their last three games and 47 over five, they are now up to 106 runs in 19 games (~5.6/game). Last season, over the whole season, they averaged about 4.9 runs per game. Summer weather and rosters depleted by injuries and/or trades haven’t happened yet.
I know some were worried about the offense after an anemic open to the season, but just like that, the Cubs offense is clicking. To be fair, when
they struggled over those early games, I noted that the distressing thing is that they really hadn’t had to go through very many elite pitchers. That was a daunting aside at that point. Now, through this earlier schedule, they’ve produced very well. The wear and tear of a season and those elite arms still lay ahead. But the Cubs offense has shown that they can be dangerous.
There is a lot of baseball to be played. I’m not going to be exuberant about things based off of three straight wins, just like I wasn’t in the doldrums when they had gotten off to a sluggish start. Even the worst teams look good sometimes and even the best teams look lousy sometimes. Through a little less than 15 percent of the season, the team is 10-9. Over 162 games, that would be an 86-win pace. I’m going to bet most of you won’t quibble that this team has felt like about an 86-win team over the course of the season.
The real question from here is does the team stay around that level? Or does this team take off from here? I’ve learned that, despite the marathon nature of baseball, a lot of fans suffer from a lot of recency bias. So this is a weird conversation for me to have with many of you. I thought they were a 90-95 win team before the season. So these three wins feel like some signal that they can be that kind of team. But if you thought they were an 80-85 win team, you are probably looking at the whole 19 and saying this is going to be a bumpy ride.
Either way, enjoy it when things swing up like this.
Three Positives:
- Moisés Ballesteros had two hits, one a three-run homer that blew the game open early.
- I love Nico Hoerner, he’s my favorite current Cub. That said, if I had to list Cubs who might put up MVP caliber numbers over a 20 game period, he’d be well down the list. I would be highly surprised to see a Hoerner like player do well in the MVP voting, but he’s having that kind of run right now. Three more hits, one more a homer and two more runs driven in. Second in all of baseball in RBI. Largely from the lead-off spot.
- Michael Busch had two hits, a walk and scored twice. The numbers are rebounding some and I’m hoping the power numbers start to fall in place next.
Game 19, April 17: Cubs 12, Mets 4 (9-8)
GRAPH
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Moisés Ballesteros (.226). 2-2, HR, 3 RBI, R
- Hero: Nico Hoerner (.156). 3-5, HR, 2 RBI, R
- Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki (.077). 2-5, 2B, RBI, 2 R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Carson Kelly (-.044). 1-4, R, DP
- Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.030). 0-3, BB
- Kid: Dansby Swanson (-.029). 1-2, BB, 2 R
WPA Play of the Game: Moisés Ballesteros hit a three-run homer with two outs in the first to add to an early 1-0 lead. (.206)
*Mets Play of the Game: Marcus Semien with runners at first and second and no outs in the second, scoring one and decreasing the Cub lead to three. (.122)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 18 Winner: Nico Hoerner received 145 out of 244 votes.
Up Next: Game two of the three-game set. Jameson Taillon (0-1, 4.86, 16.2 IP) makes his fourth start and seeks his first win. Old nemesis Freddy Peralta (1-1, 3.86, 21 IP) makes his first start as a Met against the Cubs. This is his fifth start for the Mets.
I have no objections to a fourth straight win. If the Mets want to implode, I’m definitely here for it.
