Friday was another rough day at the park for the Cubs. The story really is the offense turning nine hits, four walks and a hit batter into four runs. One of those four runs was on a solo homer. So all of that traffic didn’t do the Cubs a ton of good. Simultaneously, the Reds turned eight hits and five walks into six runs. The Reds didn’t hit any homers, though they did have a triple. There isn’t a clear line between a certain number of base runners and a certain number of runs. But each team had
14 base runners and the Reds scored two more runs. Neither team had any errors, so that wasn’t a factor in the outcome.
Over this last week, I keep seeing the Cubs biggest stars in the key WPA spots. They are getting their big guns into a position to win. That’s a good thing. But on a night like Friday, it was a frustrating thing. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman each posted an 0-for-5. Pete had seven baserunners with one out and two baserunners with two outs and got none of them home. Bregman’s was less frustrating, he batted with just two baserunners all night. Of course, part of that is because Pete had a really rough night. It happens but it doesn’t make it less frustrating.
On the other side of the ball, Clay Holmes struggled early, righted the ship, struggled late and was ultimately charged with all six runs in just 5.1 innings. The last three of those were inherited runners, allowed by Javier Assad, thrust into a leverage situation out of the bullpen because the Cubs basically have no trustworthy relievers. I’ve been asking for Craig Counsell to generally look to one of his starters turned reliever as the first guy out of the pen most games and that strategy was ineffectively employed here. Many of you have clamored for Javier Assad over and over again. I like Javy, but he’s reached mythic proportions with Cub fans and I fear that he’s one pitcher the Cubs are right about and there’s a reason the peripherals suggest that over time his numbers would be a fair bit worse.
I don’t mean to be rude with Assad or too frustrated with Holmes. They are without question two of the more effective pitchers in a boat load that have pitched for the Cubs this year. I read AZ Phil who, at times, is pretty dialed in to things the Cubs do and often makes a lot of sense on things they should do. He suggested that Tommy Hottovy will take the fall for this season. I’m having trouble finding the logic hole. Hottovy was not one of Counsell’s guys but a holdover from the previous administration. I could see the wisdom of going in a different direction. He went on to suggest that they work on the whole strength and conditioning program for the pitching staff. When I’m referencing something not from BCB about the Cubs, I’m trying to give credit for ideas that weren’t mine and I’m endorsing the sentiments.
This whole Cub season is such a terrible miscalculation. There is zero question that the position player group is plenty good enough to win a World Series, even in a world where the other teams are healthy and executing. The Cubs couldn’t even find enough pitching to feel comfortable enough to feel like even a Wild Card series is anything more than a crapshoot. I did see at least one sportswriter at one of the larger sites project how the playoffs would go and have the Cubs beating the Dodgers in a second round series before getting knocked off by the Brewers. I understand where that sentiment is coming from and still raise an eyebrow at it. I’ve watched entirely too much Cub baseball this year to feel comfortable with that projection.
One more day comes off of the calendar. One more opportunity missed to regain comfortable control of the first Wild Card spot. Glass half full and glass half empty. Fangraphs updated their odds before this series and had the Cubs sweeping this series and the subsequent one with the Marlins. But the Cubs have now dropped another game they should have won. Even still, FG has the Cubs winning 90 along with the Phillies. They just can’t keep letting winnable games get away.
Three Positives:
- Michael Conforto had three hits.
- Carson Kelly had two hits, a walk and was hit by a pitch. He scored one and drove in another.
- Ian Happ had a solo homer.
Game 154, September 18: Reds 6, Cubs 4 (85-69)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Carson Kelly (.220). 2-2, BB, HBP, RBI, R
- Hero: Michael Conforto (.125). 3-4
- Sidekick: Ian Happ (.061). 1-4, HR
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.257). 0-5
- Goat: Javier Assad (-.232). 1.2 IP, 8 BF, 4 H, K
- Kid: Clay Holmes (-.203). 5.1 IP, 3 H, 5 BB, 6 R, 4 K (L 2-4)
Note: A point I’ve made a ton of times is that blown saves increasingly doesn’t mean what they once did. We picture a blown save as the closer allowing a run or runs in the ninth inning. Javier Assad blew a save in a 4-3 game in the sixth inning. He came in with the bases loaded and one out. In no world was he going to finish the game. While we would have loved a double play grounder or a pop up and another out leading to three stranded runners, in the Fangraphs numbers, I can see their expected runs projection for bases loaded with one out. A team is expected to score 1.6 runs runs from that point on in the inning. Javy definitely didn’t get the job done, allowing all three inherited runners to score, but it’s a silly blown save.
WPA Play of the Game: Jose Trevino singled with the bases loaded and two outs to give the Reds a two run lead in the sixth inning. Those were the last runs scored in the game. (.240)
Cubs Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki singled with runners on second and third with two outs in the fourth, it scored two runs, giving the Cubs a one run lead. (.203)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 153 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong 46-44 over Shōta Imanaga.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Alex Bregman +25
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +23.5
- Carson Kelly +19.5
- Shōta Imanaga +15
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Nico Hoerner -16
- Dansby Swanson -17
- Seiya Suzuki -17
- Caleb Thielbar -17.5
Note: The closest ever finish for the Rizzo award (excluding 2020) was two points, Strop (22) over Hendricks (20) in 2018. We’ve had a 0.5 difference for last place before in 2019: Heyward (-20) under Strop (-19.5). Kyle Tucker (27) was the defending champion, so we knew from day one we’d have somebody different this year. Imanaga is the only current Cub who has previously won a Rizzo.
Scoreboard Watching: Hat tip to the Braves on clinching a playoff spot. Phillies lose (tied with Cubs, Cubs own tiebreaker). Padres win (they’ve joined the tie, the Cubs also own the tiebreaker with them). Diamondbacks lose. The Cub magic number to reach the playoffs is three with eight to play. Spoiler alert, the Diamondbacks will lose three games. We have our six-team NL Playoff field, the only thing that remains is confirming the seeding order.
Up Next: Games aren’t won and lost on paper, but the Cubs have the most favorable pitching matchup of the four Wild Card hopefuls. The Diamondbacks have the worst, facing a possible Cy Young and certainly a finalist. I’ve got my money on a Yankee with a sub-2.00 ERA winning a Cy Young. Call me crazy.
Matthew Boyd (8-5, 4.16) starts for the Cubs. He’s tail-spinning. He’s 1-4 over his last seven with a 5.14. Because we can’t have even mediocre things. He pitched the last time the Cubs were in Cincinnati and allowed four runs over 6.1 innings (and won). That was during a month that he recorded a 1.67 ERA in five starts.
28-year-old lefty Nick Lodolo (3-5, 5.12) starts for the Reds. Stop me if you’ve heard this. He’s tail-spinning. He’s 0-3 with a 6.09 over his last seven starts. He also faced the Cubs in that July series. He allowed two runs over five innings and didn’t figure in the decision. After that game, he was out for a month. His seven starts counts back to his first start back. His last three starts, he’s thrown 100, 97 and 104 pitches. So he’s plenty stretched out. He has pretty consistently had a WHIP around 1.5 and that’s just too much traffic. The Cubs can certainly beat this guy if their pitching will at least act as a speed bump.
Find a way. 3-1 or 15-12, it doesn’t matter. Get a win, effectively eliminate the Diamondbacks and keep the inside track on the top Wild Card.
