Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The only downside to staking yourself to a 15.5-game division lead, you ask? It gives you the chance to be the first team in baseball history to squander a 15.5-game division lead.
Despite their precipitous collapse, the Detroit Tigers clung onto a playoff berth by their fingernails, finishing with the same record as the Houston Astros and beating them out for the third Wild Card slot on account of a tiebreaker.
2025 record: 87-75
Manager: A.J. Hinch
Top hitter by fWAR: Dillon Dingler (4.1)
Top pitcher by fWAR: Tarik Skubal (6.6)
You can blame Detroit’s inability to finish the job in the AL Central to many factors, not least of which is the Cleveland Guardians’ astonishing late-season surge. As they prepare to face those same Guardians at Progressive Field for a three-game set, the Tigers have a chance to redeem themselves by besting the team in October that humiliated them in September. Cleveland went 5-1 against Detroit down the stretch to make that collapse possible.
Of course, Detroit’s great hope remains Tarik Skubal. Their ace is the odds-on favorite to repeat as AL Cy Young after posting a 2.21 ERA in 195.1 innings. Recording nearly a third of outs via punchout while walking fewer than five percent of batters and allowing well below a homer per nine is a deadly formula.
The optimistic Detroit fan will look to Skubal as their differentiator in any series, particularly a short one. If the southpaw can shut down the offensively-challenged Guardians in Game 1, they’ll only need one of their two other projected starters — Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize — to keep up their end of the bargain to advance. Even if they struggle, manager A.J. Hinch could fall back on his alternatively maligned and celebrated “pitching chaos” strategy that led the Tigers to an unlikely Wild Card Series victory last year in Houston, relying on relief ace Will Vest and a talented group of bullpen arms to keep opponents at bay. Of particular import will be former Nationals closer Kyle Finnegan, who posted a 1.50 ERA in 16 games with Detroit since coming over at the deadline. It is worth noting though that Detroit’s bullpen hasn’t been nearly as good down the stretch this year as it was in 2024, so the chaos could come back around and bite them.
These plans will only work, of course, if they can put some runs on the board themselves. The Tigers’ lineup is replete with hitters — Riley Greene, Gleyber Torres, and Javier Báez among them — who posted banner first halves before puttering out as the season went on. Keep a particular eye on Greene, the closest Detroit has to a star position player, who’s showcased immense talent alongside maddening inconsistency throughout his career. It’s a similar story with Spencer Torkelson, another former top prospect who’s demonstrated a flair for the dramatic but failed to hit consistently enough to justify his pedigree. As a unit, the Tigers’ offense ranks top 10 on the season despite their slide. As with every team in October, they’ll be counting on their starters to get hot at the right time and reclaim the identity that made them a trendy World Series pick a few months back.
In any playoff series where they can line up Skubal to start Game 1, that game should be considered all but win-or-go-home. In tournament baseball, having a true ace on your side can take you very far, even if your roster has holes elsewhere. If he struggles, or if the scrappy Guardians find a way to win his start anyway, the Tigers’ calamitous collapse may have its exclamation point in short order.
