It’s still tough to truly wrap your head around the season that Tyler Stephenson just had for the Cincinnati Reds, as a dive into the numbers sends you the four corners of the planet.
His strikeout rate
spiked over 11% to a career worst 33.9%, just one year removed from it being a career best 22.7% during a 2024 season that most hoped was a breakout. His BABIP somehow increased, though, up from .307 to .322 while his average still managed to dip from .258 down to .231.
His walk rate increased, which was a positive – up to a career best 10.8% from the 9.3% level in 2024.
He also managed to cut his groundball rate drastically, dropping it from 47.4% during the 2024 season down to just 38.0%, and that came with a requisite increas in fly ball rate and line drive rate. His ISO, though, remained mostly stagnant (.186 in 2024, up to .191 in 2025) even though he pulled the ball 3.6% more and upped his hard-hit rate from 43.9% up to 49.2%. His barrel rate jumped significantly, too, up to 14.4% from just 9.1% in 2024.
There’s a lot in there to suggest there was a tangible change in his approach, something that obviously coincides with a new manager and new hitting coach in the dugout for the first time in a bit. Still, his overall production dipped tremendously, his wRC+ down to 99 from 113 and his wOBA down to just .319 from its .339 peak in 2024.
That’s a lot to process for anyone, let alone a catcher who’s turning 30 in the same year he enters his final year of team control. If you put yourself in the shoes of the front office of the Reds and try to figure out just what to make it all, odds are it would be a pretty tough decision to make, too.
Who is Tyler Stephenson at this juncture, entering his twelfth year in the Reds organization? And is it worth doing what it takes to keep him around beyond just 2026?
I asked that question of you for in the latest MLB Reacts post, and when I got the results I’ll admit I was a little bit surprised. Frankly, I thought the lack of a ready-made replacement in-house (Alfredo Duno is incredibly promising but likely a bit further away) would make folks pine to keep him, and I was pretty sure nostalgic reasons would boost support for keeping him around, too.
I was wrong. Just 36% of those who participated in the poll think the Reds should do what it takes to get Stephenson under contract, meaning nearly two-thirds of those respondents think letting him walk when it’s time is a decent idea.
Maybe the frugality of this front office has gotten to plenty of folks, and they simply don’t think it’s worth throwing money at anyone. Or, maybe the frugality of the front office has gotten to plenty of folks who realize that if there are going to be extensions thrown around to the current Reds roster, Tyler’s simply not high enough on the pecking order to be the guy who gets one.
This also begs an interesting question – if you don’t think the Reds should work out an extension with Stephenson, is it worth exploring what you can get for him on the trade market this winter and at least get something longer-term for his services? He was valued at just 1.1 fWAR (1.3 bWAR) last season, and that’s probably something the Reds could find elsewhere on the market this winter, and there’s always a chance an acquiring team would still view him as the 3.3 fWAR (2.4 bWAR) catcher he was in 2024.
It’s quite the interesting conundrum, one complicated by the team’s decision to trade for and extend Jose Trevino prior to the start of the 2025 season. It’s really, really hard to envision the Reds doling out the kind of money it would take to lock up Stephenson when they’ve already dedicated a good chunk to the guy who’d be his backup, after all.
