Alright, everybody … I make no promises and this has taken me a long time to think through. Any mistakes in this are mine, I have tried my best, I have looked at a lot of tables, and I have made a lot of big calls here. I will tell you the assumptions that I am making as I go. But, all else being equal, I believe I can tell you what we need to get for a Champions League spot & what we will actually end up with.
Brace yourself, troops — maths, witchcraft and wizardry follows. Look upon my mighty work
and weep. I know I did — right into my calculator.
At this stage of the season, currently in the November international break and six weeks away from Christmas, we are naturally drawn to league position at years’ end. That, my friends, is not what we are here for today. Instead, we will look at the rest of the 2026-27 season and cast a wide net to see where we end up. Troops, today we go all the way to the end … of … the … season.
Right now, there’s a six-point gap between Juventus and fourth place. I see that the mountain is steep, but, is it insurmountable? League tables in November can be deceptive. What ultimately matters is not where fourth place sits today, it’s where fourth place adds up to in May. On balance, when viewed through that lens, Juventus’ path back to the Champions League looks more achievable than current standings suggest.
The biggest mistake analysts make at this point of the season (I think) is assuming the current top four teams will continue at the same point-scoring pace. At present, Lazio, Inter, Roma and (not-so) surprise package Como occupy the Champions League positions. If each club maintained its current points-per-game average across a full 38-match campaign, the results would be extraordinary:
- Lazio 2.80 ppg, 106 points total
- Inter 2.50, 95
- Roma 2.45, 93
- Como 2.30, 87
Those numbers do not reflect the reality of a Serie A season, and have no real parallel to any experiences we have witnessed before. What I am doing here, simply, is looking at the average points per game over the season so far, and extrapolating that out. Actually, to be fair, the calculator is doing most of the work.
Recent history says that only the strongest title-winning sides sustain a pace north of 2.2 points per game. That’s just me averaging out the last few seasons — more on that later — but the likelihood is that every team currently over-performing will experience periods of regression, injuries, fixture congestion and loss of form. That matters because I am going to propose that Juventus are not chasing today’s pace — this pace. They are actually chasing the “averaged” pace that will come to be after the inevitable correction of over-performing teams.
How can I say that? Simple maths tells us that the race for fourth place is rarely won with 85 points. More often, it is secured somewhere in the low- or mid-70s. That’s the conversation we are about to have.
Now, to the whiteboard!
Juventus currently sit on 18 points after 11 matches. If you look at years past and do some basic numbering, my trusty old FX 82C (yes, a calculator) tells me that the threshold for fourth place in the table and qualify for the Champions League is approximately 73 points. Let’s say that’s the case, then that means we need 56 more points from the remaining 27 fixtures.
Broken down, that requires approximately 2 points per game, or roughly 17 wins from the final 28 matches. Juventus do not need to perform like the best team in Italy to do that — at least in theory. They simply need to perform like one of the four best teams from this point forward.
Right, now let’s look at the run here from the competition’s perspective. Inter possess the squad depth and quality most likely to sustain an elite level pace across a full campaign. So, let’s assume they do well and win the league. On average, that looks like around 85 or 86 points. Now, if we put aside the current disbelief around Roma and Lazio (accepting that one of these two may be replaced by, say, Como) and give them the “expected” scores for second and third, then we see Roma on 82 and Lazio on 80.
We can then do some maths on who beats who to get those points and that sharpens that fourth spot up some.
This is where Juventus enter the equation. While AC Milan, Napoli, Bologna and Juventus have all shown inconsistency, they possess stronger foundations than some of the season’s surprise packages. Also, history suggests maintaining European qualification pace across 38 matches is a different challenge entirely for clubs without the pedigree.
Some whiteboard gymnastics later, and I think you are looking at fourth place on 76 points (ish), fifth place on 73 points, and sixth place on 70 points. Looking at the “who beats who” to get spot in the top three, I think you are looking at a shootout here with Milan, Juventus and Como. (Apologies Napoli, but the whiteboard is not in your favor.)
Again, if you trust me and the whiteboard here, the rest of the season can effectively be simplified into three possible outcomes.
Firstly, if Juventus average 1.8 points per game for the remainder of the campaign, they finish with approximately 67 points. That’s sixth or seventh place and fighting for Europa League qualification. Call this the “We’re just not that good any more” scenario.
Secondly, if Juventus average 2.0 points per game from here, they reach roughly 73 points. That places them directly on the projected Champions League line and gives them every chance of a top-four finish. Call this the “Could go either way” scenario.
Thirdly, if Juventus can produce a sustained run worth 2.2 points per game, they finish with around 79 points. At that level they are no longer scraping into the top four. They are comfortably among Serie A’s leading clubs. Call this the “We’re back, baby!” scenario.
Over seven months, that difference amounts to a handful of victories. For instance, if Juventus take 10-ish points from their next four league matches, they immediately move onto a pace consistent with a top-four finish. Collect seven points and they remain in the fight. Collect four or five, and the margin for error rapidly disappears.
What are we talking here? Win three of the next four — say a only a loss to Como. Not impossible.
So, now we get to fixture bingo. Basically we can “afford” 10 losses more this league season. But, the reality is that we will not win the other 17 matches outright. That means a bit of “interpretation” here. I think that that balance looks more like seven losses and three or four draws (at most, if you want that sweet, sweet, Champions League cash). If that is the case, here are the games to watch, win and make the season in order of most likely to be a loss:
- Inter away
- Roma away
- Milan away
- Lazio away
- Inter home
- Roma home
- Como away
Then we get a few draws:
- Atalanta away
- Bologna away
- Lazio away
- Torino away
That, as they say, is that. Miss something else in some other game, you have to win one of these. Fourth place is unlikely to require an historic points total, but it will require improvement. Juventus remain close enough that a sustained run of strong, rather than spectacular form changes the narrative.
Good luck, lads. These are the games to watch.
And, yes, I did promise a prediction. Based on my assessment of ups and downs, I think we are in a race for fourth or fifth. Sadly, I think it’s fifth, troops, but I’d love to be proven very wrong.
