The six seed Buffalo Bills are set to take on the one seed Denver Broncos and the predictions are all steering toward a close matchup. Buffalo’s defense has a laundry list of injuries that should concern Bills Mafia. If there’s a silver lining, however, it’s that the Bills have faced tougher challenges so far.
Denver Broncos have an average offense
To briefly recap my rule of four for the league’s 32 teams, the top four spots are considered “elite” in a metric, with spots 5-8 considered “good” or “above average.” Teams 9-24 being average. The
25-28 spots are “bad” or “below average” with the final four spots being considered “terrible” or some other antonym of “elite.” Got it? So let’s prove the statement in my heading.
My favorite metrics to discuss team quality are per-drive metrics. Denver’s points per drive sits at 2.05, which is 18th best in the league. They score on 37.8% of their drives, which is 20th. When it comes to avoiding turnovers, they’re actually in the realm of “good” coming in at the sixth spot with a turnover rate of 8.0% of drives.
I also like per-play metrics, so let’s look at some of those. The Broncos are 15th in total yards per play with 5.33 yards per play. They’re also 15th in rushing yards (4.43 per rush) but hit the bad category in passing. Their 6.21 yards per pass ranks 25th in the league. Their biggest strength is avoiding sacks. At 3.75% sack rate, no team in the league is better.
Like all teams, they have their ups and downs, but the overall numbers suggest a team in the realm of average. How has the Bills’ defense fared against teams similar to the Broncos? For purposes of “me not staying up writing all the various permutations until 3 a.m.” I’ll stick to points per drive for this exercise as points are usually understood to be the best predictor of who wins a game.
For points per drive, the Bills have faced the following average teams:
- Baltimore Ravens (12th) – The Bills took on the Ravens arguably at their best and Week 1 when things are wacky, but following my own premise they still qualify as an average team. Buffalo allowed 40 points to the Ravens, so we’re not exactly off to a great start. However, it’s also notable that this was the highest total allowed by the Bills this season.
- Cincinnati Bengals (13th) – Allowing 34 points to this team doesn’t look great either, so let’s move on the next team.
- Kansas City (15th) – Buffalo had a much better game against KC than the first two teams, allowing only 21 points in this contest.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (16) – This game is the feather in the cap of the 2025 Bills’ defense. A single touchdown was all the Steelers were able to produce in a dominant defensive performance.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (19th) – Buffalo allowed 32 points to Tampa Bay, which is not great.
- Houston Texans (21st) – The Bills allowed 23 points, which is exactly league average for per-game scoring this season. This means Buffalo allowed an average team an average amount of points. This isn’t a feather in the cap, or a red flag.
- Philadelphia Eagles (22nd) – The defense did their job in this context, allowing only 13 points. The loss was certainly not on the D.
- Miami Dolphins (24th) – The Bills played Miami twice. They allowed 21 points the first time (fine) and 30 the second time (not fine).
Buffalo played five teams in the bad to terrible range; the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets (x2), and Cleveland Browns. Buffalo shut down the Panthers, Saints, and Jets and kept the Falcons and Browns to an average amount of points.
The Bills played one elite team (New England Patriots x2) and one good team (Jacksonville Jaguars). Two of the three contests saw an average number of points allowed. The Patriots scored 31 in the second contest, which is the game Buffalo won.
The Final Straw
The Ravens, Bengals, and Buccaneers serve as cautionary tales. The Bills’ defense has not been shutdown during the 2025 season, and on three occasions even an average team dropped a ton of points. That doesn’t mean Buffalo should be scared heading in.
The Bills’ defense has been fine against average offense more often than not. Contrasting the Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Tampa Bay contests; it’s notable that in the three contests against the better competition they’ve faced they’ve mostly fared well.
For Buffalo, the defense has seemingly been the weaker side of the ball all season (though each of their losses was mostly or completely due to offensive woes). As the weaker side, the Bills’ defense is still average. This matchup is not a daunting one on paper.
