Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, October 18 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: DATCU Stadium — Denton, TX
- Spread: North Texas (-3.5)
- Over/under: 67.5
- All-time series: UTSA leads, 8-5
- Last meeting: UTSA 48, North Texas 17 — November 15, 2024
- Current streak: UTSA, 4 (2022-24)
Setting the scene
The dust has settled in the Denton Desert.
Denton, TX was the center stage of the college football universe last Friday night as a record crowd of 31,386 stormed into DATCU Stadium for a spectacle between undefeated North Texas and ranked South Florida. The electrifying atmosphere brought the energy, but North Texas could not live up to its moment, falling 63-36 to the Bulls. However, the Mean Green are still very much alive in the American Conference title race, and while Friday night will be tough
to replicate, they’re trying to concoct another special atmosphere — with more student tickets sold this week five days prior to kickoff than last week at the same time.
Taking the in-state trip to Denton is UTSA fresh off a demolition of Rice. The Roadrunners share plenty of history with the Mean Green and ride a 4-game win streak heading into the contest — which includes the 2022 Conference USA Championship Game. However, North Texas’ last win over UTSA transpired in 2021 in Denton when the Mean Green knocked off a ranked 11-0 Roadrunner team. This time UTSA enters as the underdog looking to play spoiler to a special season.
UTSA Roadrunners outlook
UTSA (3-3, 1-1 American) won in a very cathartic manner last Saturday. The Roadrunners opened conference play with a heartbreaker at Temple and all of that frustration was properly channeled into a 61-13 beatdown of Rice. UTSA set a new program record for scoring in a 48-point margin of victory where the offense, defense, and special teams all shined under the lights of the Alamodome.
The Alamodome is UTSA’s comfort zone, but the Roadrunners must learn to thrive on the road in order to contend for a conference title. UTSA is 1-9 in its last 10 regular season road contests, most recently winning a conference road game in November 2023 at North Texas.
Jeff Traylor’s team enters Denton with a heap of momentum as the passing game finally ignited in Week 7 vs. Rice. Quarterback Owen McCown fired for an efficient 236 yards and three touchdowns, only needing 21 throws in the lopsided contest. A healthier wide receiving corps greatly benefited the lefty quarterback last Saturday, and he’ll work with targets Devin McCuin, AJ Wilson, David Amador II, and a horde of tight ends to find an advantage in the aerial game.
UTSA’s bread and butter all season has been the run game, primarily the man in the No. 3 jersey. Robert Henry Jr. currently ranks fourth nationally with 730 yards rushing, and he has 10 total touchdowns in a remarkable first half of 2025. Henry generated 140+ yards in each of the first four weeks, striking with touchdowns from 70+ yards out five times in those four games. The tailback only managed 106 yards in the two conference matchups, but he is receiving valuable assistance from Will Henderson III, who is coming off a 115-yard, 2-touchdown performance.
The Roadrunner defense made history in its prior outing with a program-best 16 tackles for loss in a game. UTSA fields a viable run defense limiting opponents to 130 yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry. The group is led by inside linebacker Shad Banks Jr., a former TCU starter whose experiencing is shining in a new city. Banks has 42 tackles, 3.0 tackles for loss, two interceptions, two fumble recoveries, and a defensive touchdown (one of two last week) in a well-rounded effort.
The linebacking room, which includes Kendrick Blackshire and leading pass rusher Nnannu Anyanwu, is the unquestionable strength of the defense, but the Roadrunners will be especially tested in the secondary by the Mean Green. UTSA ranks 87th in pass defense and has only forced seven takeaways (four of which were interceptions) on the year. South Florida proved takeaways are the premier way to get North Texas off track, and UTSA will look to stockpile some on the road through a secondary led by Jimmy Wyrick and KK Meier.
North Texas Mean Green outlook
North Texas (5-1, 1-1 American) was one of the last 15 undefeated teams but not one of the 11 remaining. The Mean Green’s first 5-0 start since 1959 ended in dramatic fashion in front of a record crowd last Friday night — and it all happened within a 5-minute stretch. After trading shot for shot with South Florida for the bulk of the first half, North Texas saw a stretch where it was outscored 28-0 thanks to committing three turnovers, and Eric Morris’ team never recovered in the 63-36 defeat.
It was an uncharacteristic game for North Texas which led the FBS in points off turnovers prior to Week 7. Additionally, quarterback Drew Mestemaker never threw a pick all season prior to the South Florida game, yet he tossed three in an abbreviated timespan. Still, the Mean Green have every reason to believe in the redshirt freshman quarterback due to the high-level throws he made throughout the game. Mestemaker still exhibits 13 touchdowns to three interceptions on a 66.7 completion rate, connecting on some eyebrow-raising passes on a weekly basis.
Mestemaker utilizes a slew of receivers to guide the nation’s sixth-ranked scoring offense. Wyatt Young and Cameron Dorner enter this game as questionable, but leading receiver Miles Coleman (30 receptions, 320 yards), Landon Sides, and Simeon Evans give the quarterback plenty to work with. North Texas’ wealth of skill position talent is also evident in the running back duo of Makenzie McGill and Caleb Hawkins. Hawkins, a true freshman, averages 6.4 yards per carry and is an end zone machine with eight touchdowns on the year.
North Texas hasn’t produced a winning season since 2018, but the offense’s firepower was never a question in the 2020s. Although the defense has shown drastic improvement to date, the jury remains out after allowing 63 to South Florida. Of course, 21 of those points were tallied off turnovers, and North Texas was placed in many compromised positions. However, the Mean Green are still 127th nationally in defending the run, albeit top 15 in pass defense.
Where North Texas excels most on defense is generating turnovers. The Mean Green only trail South Florida in turnover production with 14 takeaways. The starting linebackers — Trey Fields, Ethan Wesloski, and Shane Whitter — all boast at least one interception on their season résumé and also serve as the top three tacklers on the unit. They’ll look to produce second level stops and prevent Robert Henry Jr. breakaway runs while also generating backfield pressure. Wesloski has a team-best 6.0 tackles for loss and aims to add to that total Saturday in Denton.
Prediction
The loser contributed at least 27 points in each of the last four meetings between these programs. History suggests this one will land on the higher-scoring side, and both offenses fully support that. UTSA is moving the ball exceptionally in the run game with Robert Henry Jr. and Owen McCown is capable of firing for impressive numbers through the air. The Roadrunners already experienced one classic shootout this year against Texas State, and this one has the makings of another high-flying thriller.
North Texas is also skill position sound, with quarterback Drew Mestemaker and his bevy of backs and receivers capable of hitting explosives. While the status of several Mean Green receivers is unknown, Mestemaker can make any players stars with his ball placement, as long as they create the thinnest of windows. As long as North Texas doesn’t fall into a turnover trap again, the Mean Green will emerge Saturday over UTSA.
Prediction: North Texas 38, UTSA 31
