So far the voting on the top prospect list has produced zero surprises. JJ Wetherholt, arguably the most MLB ready prospect in the Cardinals system, was the #1 prospect. It’s certainly more of a debate about who is the second most MLB ready player, but Liam Doyle combines readiness with potential unmatched by anyone else in the system at the very least. I find it difficult to disagree with the choices made thus far.
As far as who to add to the voting, I think there’s one player I have to absolutely
add to the voting given his change from last year to this year. When you have that big of a shift, I don’t know where the current opinion of the fanbase stands with that prospect. That certainly applies to Joshua Baez, who has been on a top 20 list before, but it was back in 2023 when he ranked 11th. A lot has changed since that moment, including two years where he was not voted onto the list at all. So he has to be added to the voting sooner rather than later.
There are a couple options on who to add next, but for better or worse, this is where I use a past list as a reference point. Last year, Tink Hence was voted as the #3 prospect in the system. I think it’s pretty clear he won’t be the 3rd prospect again, however I do feel an obligation to add him, especially because Fangraphs still believes him to be a top 100 prospect. So he’s a pretty easy add honestly, because he does feel like he should be among the first nine prospects added to the voting.
(I had originally planned to do Winter Warmup related posts, but my schedule has made that somewhat impractical honestly. I had interviews lined up all Saturday and then had maybe an hour break and went to my other job that night, which lasted until midnight. Back for interviews at 9 am on Sunday, I went straight from there to my parents for a Sunday night dinner. Didn’t really have any time to transcribe interviews. Not sure when I’ll return to Winter Warmup content, but for now, I’ll stick with the prospects)
Joshua Baez, OF – 23
Stats (High A): 168 PAs, .317/.404/.483, 10.7 BB%, 21.4 K%, .166 ISO, .400 BABIP, 152 wRC+
AA: 331 PAs, .271/.374/.509, 12.4 BB%, 20.2 K%, .238 ISO, .294 BABIP, 141 wRC+
Scouting: 30/35 Hit, 45/60 Game Power, 60/70 Raw Power, 50/40 Speed, 40/50 Fielding
As far as I can tell, the Fangraphs scouting report on Baez is updated as of July 1st of last year, which is to indicate that it does take into account his improvement, but they might have better reports since he continued playing well in the 2nd half. It’s a marvel that his BB%, K% and ISO all improved upon a promotion to a theoretically harder level. Obviously, the BABIP didn’t follow him, but he won’t exactly have a .400 BABIP in the majors either.
The question with Baez is obviously going to be if he can sustain his improvements from last season. If you could completely trust his numbers, he’d comfortably be considered very high on this list. But because of his past, there’s more doubt than normal. His looked way more fluky, but Moises Gomez is a good example of a one-year wonder. That’s the fear with Baez.
Leonardo Bernal, C – 22
Stats (AA): 107 G, 455 PAs, .247/.332/.394, 10.8 BB%, 16.9 K%, .146 ISO, .274 BABIP, 103 wRC+
Scouting (FG): 35/50 Hit, 35/45 Game Power, 50/50 Raw Power, 40/30 Speed, 40/55 Fielding
Bernal’s scouting reflects his appeal, which is that he’s a well-rounded catcher. He might not be elite at any one thing, but at least his potential reflects an average bat with average power and above average fielding. That doesn’t necessarily sound exciting, but would very clearly be a good starting catcher at the MLB level. There’s really only one question with his bat: why was his BABIP so low? If it was fluky, then there are no worries about his offense. If it was deserved to some extent, contact quality becomes a question mark as he rises up the system.
Brandon Clarke, 23 – LHP
Stats (Low A): 3 GS, 9.2 IP, 47.2 K%, 5.6 BB%, 68.8 GB%, .125 BABIP, 0.93 ERA/0.98 FIP/1.32 xFIP
High A: 11 GS, 28.1 IP, 31.2 K%, 18.1 BB%, 62.5 GB%, .254 BABIP, 5.08 ERA/4.17 FIP/4.74 xFIP
Scouting: 60/60 Fastball, 70/80 Slider, 40/50 Change, 30/40 Command
Clarke would not be the first pitcher nor the last to survive off two elite pitches – hell one that is potentially among the best in baseball – and spotty command, leading to an effective starting pitcher, if not an All-Star. But it’s also not hard to look at his profile and see an elite reliever rather than a starting pitcher. It’s hard to be successful at this level with below average command, not to mention just two pitches. The success of his change will make a huge difference on his future development. Luckily, he does have some time. He doesn’t need to figure it out right now.
Jimmy Crooks, C – 24
Stats (AAA): 98 G, 430 PAs, .274/.337/.441, 8.4 BB%, 26.5 K%, .167 ISO, .352 BABIP, 105 wRC+
MLB: 15 G, 46 PAs, .133/.152/.244, 0 BB%, 37 K%, .111 ISO, .185 BABIP, 5 wRC+
Scouting: 35/40 Hit, 40/45 Game Power, 50/50 Raw Power, 20/20 Speed, 60/70 Fielding
It feels weird to say in a season where Crooks got to make his MLB debut, get his first MLB hit, and hit his first homer, but one could argue his 2025 was something of a disappointment. Not for him professionally of course. One might argue the increased strikeouts has tampered the enthusiasm for Crooks’ bat when he previously had not really displayed contact issues.
On the other hand, he is going to be 24 next season. He had an above average hitting line in AAA. Yeah there’s not a lot of positives to be gleamed from his MLB experience, but it was still experience. I would even argue he may have been pushed too aggressively – with a 105 wRC+ and a .352 BABIP, it’s not a surprise he struggled at the MLB level. And most importantly, his greatest appeal is not his offense at all, but his defense.
Tink Hence, 23 – RHP
Stats (Three levels): 8 G, 21.1 IP, 27.9 K%, 15.1 BB%, 45.8 GB%, .255 BABIP, 2.95 ERA/3.80 FIP/4.18 xFIP
Scouting: 45/45 Fast, 50/55 Slider, 60/70 Change, 45/55 Command
There’s no getting around it. Hence had a lost season last year. I debated whether or not to even list his stats, because they were all effectively rehab appearances. He pitched in Low A, High A, and AA, with 3 ‘starts” and 10.2 IP in AA being the most he pitched at any level. The biggest mystery is how the Cardinals will treat Hence if he indeed is healthy. They’ve slow played him to date, trying to preserve his health, which has not necessarily translated into the health they wanted.
More importantly though, if last year was just 21 innings, what exactly does slow playing Hence look like for next season? Surely, they won’t have him only pitch 50 innings? But what is the limit? I do think people can overlook how good Hence was at AA in 2024 though, he struck out 34% of hitters in almost 80 innings. He’s probably ready for AAA. Innings is the main concern though.
Quinn Mathews, 25 – LHP
Stats (AAA): 24 GS, 99 IP, 26.1 K%, 16.8 BB%, 41.8 GB%, .302 BABIP, 3.73 ERA/4.30 FIP/4.78 xFIP
Scouting: 50/55 Fastball, 50/55 Slider, 45/45 Curve, 60/60 Change, 45/60 Command
It might be beneficial in the long run that Mathews had the 2025 that he did, even though most – myself included – largely expected him to not only debut last season, but to make as many as 20 starts. That didn’t happen. Part of it was his fault, part of it was that nobody really got injured, and part of it was that he didn’t need to be added to the 40 man. As a consequence, we are a year later and he’s kind of in the same situation as he was a year ago – we think he’ll make a good many starts, but he’s behind some guys more likely to make the roster. In this year’s case, the guys ahead of him can be sent down, for the most part, so it’s more possible.
And when I say it might be more beneficial, he had some growing pains maybe better experienced in the minors, but also his service time clock has yet to start. Unless he makes the majors earlier than expected, the Cardinals are looking at 7 years of team control. Well, depending on the CBA of course.
Raniel Rodriguez, 19 – C
Stats (CPX): 20 G, 80 PAs, .373/.513/.831, 20 BB%, 18.8 K%, .458 ISO, .385 BABIP, 238 wRC+
Low A: 60 G, 271 PAs, .249/.373/.498, 14 BB%, 17.7 K%, .249 ISO, .261 BABIP, 145 wRC+
Scouting: 25/50 Hit, 20/55 Game Power, 50/55 Raw Power, 45/40 Speed, 40/60 Fielding
You know there’s a funny thing about scouting. I get where the potential comes in – most sites roughly agree with a prospect’s potential. It’s easy enough to wrap my head around when I see a 55 potential for power or 50 potential for a hit tool. Where I notice some weird elements is in the current element of the scouting. As in I do not believe Rodriguez has 20 game power right now. I don’t know where he came up with that number. However else he would do in the major leagues, I don’t think his power would be comparable to David Eckstein. I think he would hit some homers, maybe nothing close to what he’s doing in the minors, but a 20? That suggests absolutely no power whatsoever.
Anyway, I’ll probably be commenting on weird scouting grades all voting, because it’s an easy thing for me to rant about. This is but one of many.
As with last time, I have simply given you a link to the actual poll. It doesn’t let me embed the poll onto this site, but the link should work fine. This was well-received last time, so I’m just going to keep using this method until it fails me.
