The Duke Blue Devils (7-2) head south from Durham to Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Hurricanes (8-1) on Saturday, November 14th at noon on ABC.
Per ESPN, Miami has an 88% win expectancy and the ‘Canes are around two TD favorites over the Devils.
The Doppler
Per SP+, The ’Canes are the 3rd best team in the country while Duke is 32nd. Miami has the no.1 offense, 25th defense and 27th kicking game. Duke has the 35th offense, 26th defense and 78th kicking game.
Miami is now 3rd in the country in PPG scored
with 41 PPG. Duke is 44th at 29.4 PPG scored.
UM is 2nd in 3rd down conversion offense at 54% and 75th on 4th down while converting 50% of the time.
Duke is 64th in FBS on 3rd downs converting 40% of the time and 34th on 4th down while converting 63% of the time.
The Devils are 4th in FBS in points per game allowed, they’re only giving up 13.8 PPG. Miami is 29th in FBS now having surrendered 20.8 PPG.
On 3rd down Duke’s defense is allowing teams to convert 27% of the time, that’s INSANELY GOOD from Manny Diaz’s defense. Miami’s defense is allowing teams to convert 41% of the time which is 81st in FBS.
Miami is 21st in turnover margin per game at +0.6 while Duke is 23rd at +0.5.
The ‘Canes are 91st in penalty yards per game as they’re flagged for 61.9 pre contest. Duke is 118th in PYPG while being flagged for 69.4 yards per contest.
The Duke kickers are 9-of-10 and 4-of-5 on FG’s so not a lot of issues there with missing three point tries.
The Film
The film we’re going to use is the UNC win over Duke from October 17th. The Tar Heels beat the Devils 24-20 in Durham. UNC finished 6-of-15 on money downs while Duke went 10-of-21.
UNC turned the ball over twice compared to Duke’s one turnover. The Tar Heels were flagged for 65 yards in penalties while Duke was hit with 67 yards in yellows.
Duke scored on defense with a scoop and score off a fumble recovery, and still lost! The Blue Devils finished 2-of-2 on FG’s while UNC finished 1-of-1. UNC blocked a Duke punt to give themselves a short field.
THE DUKE OFFENSE
QB Walker Eget averaged 6.6 yards per pass attempt with one TD and one INT. Eget connected with seven different Devils but only two hit double-digit yards per catch marks. Nate Sheppard led the way with 89 yards receiving and one TD.
On the ground, Sheppard led the Devils in rushing with 77 yards on 20 carries. CJ Campbell rushed for 6.8 yards per carry.
The Duke OL allowed one sack and two TFL’s while the UNC defense picked up six PBU’s.
Above- Duke is going to attack Miami with crossing routes like mesh and y-cross. With how bad the S’s eyes are at UM expect it the rest of the season.
Above- Sheppard is a missed tackles machine. Miami did a solid job vs. Nolan James (3.3 yards per carry) most of the game, but he did score twice. Sheppard is an elite back and should be on Miami’s radar in ‘27.
Above- This should be the right time for some Moten bully ball. We saw it start to brew up vs. ND but Blount was lined up offsides. Moten can take over a game and it’s time to let him. Stop making him stem and let him get his hands on a G’s shoulder and pull and rip.
Above- The LB’s will have to shine both in the box and pursuing outside on wide runs. Chase Smith and Mo Toure have had ups and downs. Miami needs run game ups vs. Duke.
Above- Miami is going to get ran on when it’s 4th and 3 and shorter. I would expect more glance and pop pass RPO’s from opponents with Dunnigan, Smith and Toure all being overly aggressive to the inside run game. I was SHOCKED ND didn’t try that insert seam to the TE that UNC scored on vs. Miami.
Above- Will Mesh with a post and slide route kill Miami once again? Sheppard is their do-it-all guy like Toney is for Miami. He took this slide that led him upfield into a DB, juked him and scored.
Above- To end the game the Q over-throws his target and UNC seals the win with an INT. It was a crazy game all around.
THE DUKE DEFENSE
QB Billy Edwards Jr. averaged 7.6 yards per attempt with one TD and zero INT’s. He found only five receivers but four averaged double-digit yards per catch marks.
Jordan Shipp caught one TD but also lost a fumble while averaging 10.7 yards per catch.
RB Jaylen McGill averaged 6.3 yards per rush with one TD and Demon June averaged 3.8 yards per carry with one TD of his own.
The Duke defense logged two sacks, five TFL’s but did not register a PBU. DE Kevin O’Connor picked up one sack and TFL vs. UNC. DT Preston Watson logged one sack and 2.5 TFL’s vs. the Heels.
Above- So what’s open? The middle of Duke’s defense. Wingo should be a prime target for Y-Cross and the Dig routes off Shallow Cross.
Above- Edwards considers a deep shot and rethinks it for a scramble. Mensah has been really good about being careful with the ball. He should continue that and just scramble and slide if he’s this open vs. taking a risk. Don’t give Duke short fields to work with.
Above- Everyone runs mesh. You can see the deeper drag (sometimes a spot or post) route come open for UNC in all the traffic. Dawson needs to keep dialing up traditional Air Raid concepts like Mesh.
Above- UNC ran toss which Miami had been running to Mallory as a tendency breaker. Duke’s DE spilled it to the CB who bottled it up. Might be less effective vs. Duke than previous squads.
Above- UNC leaned on Duke at times and bullied them for tough yards, including broken tackles. Fletcher and Mallory should be the 1-2 punch once again and beat up on Duke while Barkate, Lofton, Wingo and Upshaw are the over the top and crosser threats.
Above- Miami can not afford to be lose with the football. UNC is stretching for a first down, bobbles it, and in Diaz defense fashion it’s a scoop and score. One thing Manny is good at is teaching high risk / high reward defense.
Above- That Diaz defense- tackles for loss vs. massive plays. This is a TFL and they’ll be going for them vs. Congdon for sure. He’ll put pressure on the young buck so it’s time to step up for Big Ben.
Above- Duke’s DL is good and we know Manny will send LB’s and DB’s after Mensah if he thinks he can create havoc plays.
Above- Edwards misfires on his ball placement but the MOF is open all game. Here you see a 1-high look and LB’s not deep enough SHEESH what kind of DC would run that look?!
Above- Where toss failed wide sweep found success. Wide sweep is like the old buck sweep wing-t play, except it’s a d-gap not a c-gap play. The G’s are pulling (SJ Alofaituli, Congdon). The firs guard reads MDM and either kicks or logs him. The 2nd guard finds the next MDM and kicks or logs him. RB reads the blocks (the G’s butts) and cuts off them.
THE DUKE SPECIAL TEAMS
Above- UNC blocks a Duke punt to get a short field and go up 10-0 in the 1st quarter. Miami desperately needs to upgrade their punt, punt block and return, kickoff and kick return teams. If Miami can block a punt (instead of letting Indiana block theirs) they can have that dominance from 2001 again.
The Forecast
The Canyonero Keys to Victory main theme from the summer was to avoid self-implosion. I stand by that. Duke is a middle P4 team per SP+ while Miami is top-5. The individual keys are:
1- Protect Mensah. As you can see above two of Duke’s best players vs. UNC were DL. If Miami gets eaten up by Diaz’s aggressive ‘havoc’ style and Mensah has to run for his life again this could stay much closer than it should. 21 pressures should be a fireable offense for Alex Mirabal moving forward.
2- Contain Sheppard. Sheppard is clearly Duke’s best offensive weapon both on the ground and at times in the passing game, too. Miami has to focus on him, he can’t get loose on a rail route on Mesh like they allowed ND to. All eyes on Sheppard like he’s their Malachi Toney- because he is!
3- Cover the middle. Miami has been picked on over the middle both deep and short. Digs, RB check-downs and now RPO glance routes are eating up the defense. Duke will run RPO’s to take advantage of this and TE Jeremiah Hasley can’t have a career day vs. Miami.
Score Prediction: Miami by 10. All that being said Miami is 30 spots in SP+ better than Duke. The ‘Canes should cover the 13.5 or so spread especially because stopping the run is Miami’s strength on defense. If Duke’s strength was in the passing game I’d be more concerned.
