1/3 Big Ten Preview: UCLA at Iowa

SB Nation

Conference play reopened on Friday and fans got treated to some great matchups. Fortunately, that’s set to continue on Saturday with four quality games on the docket. The biggest appear to be in Iowa City

and Madison.

Let’s take a look at the schedule.

Game of the Day:

-UCLA Bruins at No. 25 Iowa Hawkeyes

Time/TV: 6:00 PM ET (Peacock)
KenPom Spread: Iowa by 6

Few teams have gotten off to a more encouraging start than the Hawkeyes. After a few down years with Fran McCaffery, the program made a change, bringing in Drake’s Ben McCollum and he’s off to a roaring start, pushing Iowa to 11-2 entering the new year. The team has looked every bit the part of a top 25 unit and has earned quality wins against multiple teams like Ole Miss and Xavier.

However, entering Saturday, Iowa has yet to beat a top 25 team or even one in that discussion. That makes the evening’s meeting with UCLA particularly important. The Hawks need to start adding the next tier of wins to their resume, i.e., the wins against higher end opportunities. This is a fantastic opportunity to do just that.

UCLA also arrives with momentum. While the Bruins are only 10-3 overall, the team has won three straight and five of its last six games. UCLA is unblemished since before Thanksgiving outside of a relatively competitive game against Gonzaga in mid-December. The group is getting great play from Donovan Dent and Skyy Clark in the backcourt and Tyler Bilodeau upfront. A road win in Iowa City would almost certainly bump UCLA into the top 25, or at least on the verge in the receiving votes category.

In many ways, this feels like a meeting of the moment. Both sides feel relatively similarly positioned. As such, it’s likely going to come down to a few key moments and the hustle plays. For Iowa, it’s going to be interesting to see how the team shoots against a respectable UCLA defense and how it rebounds. Michigan State bullied Iowa on the boards last month, resulting in a lopsided affair. The Bruins aren’t a statistically great rebounding team, but could Bilodeau and Xavier Booker step up to get the job done? UCLA likely needs to use that route and force some turnovers to slow down a fantastic Iowa offense. All told, expect a tight one.

Pick: Iowa

The Rest:

-Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats

Time/TV: 5:00 PM ET (BTN)
KenPom Spread: Northwestern by 7

This is a quietly important game in Evanston, as Minnesota and Northwestern compete to stay in the postseason picture. The Wildcats certainly enter as favorites, having played better this season and with homecourt in their back pockets. However, Minnesota did surprise Indiana already this season, so it’s far from a lock for Northwestern. It’s expected to be a slug fest, as both sides rely extensively on their defense.

This game will likely hinge on Cade Tyson. Northwestern’s defense and Nick Martinelli are enough to pen a route toward victory in this one. The question is whether Tyson can do enough to keep the Gophers in the game and make things interesting. Minnesota will also have to get some great games from Bobby Durkin and Jaylen Crocker-Johnson on the boards if the team is going to pull off an upset. All told, Northwestern is the pick here.

Pick: Northwestern

-No. 20 Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions

Time/TV: 7:00 PM ET (BTN)
KenPom Spread: Illinois by 16

On paper, there’s little about this game that looks intriguing. Illinois is playing at a top 25 level and enters this one with plenty of momentum, having won four of its last five games. Conversely, Penn State has lost three of its last four and has still yet to beat a top 150 KenPom opponent, which is becoming a major deficit, considering we’re now in January. Simply put, there’s a reason the spread is so large heading into tip.

Given these circumstances, the only question is whether Penn State can play well enough to keep things competitive. And there are a few encouraging signs there. To start, the Nittany Lions performed well against Michigan State last month. The Spartans are on Illinois’ level and that was a close one. The game also comes in the Palestra, which should make for a fantastic environment. If Kayden Mingo and Ivan Juric can play well and feed off that environment, Penn State could make things interesting. Otherwise, expect an Illinois win.

Pick: Illinois

-No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers at Wisconsin Badgers

Time/TV: 8:00 PM ET (FOX)
KenPom Spread: Purdue by 8

For the better part of a decade (or maybe more), this has been one of the premier matchups in the league, pitting two Big Ten title contenders and NCAA mainstays against each other. We’ve gotten some great battles over the years with real consequences.

Unfortunately, this one doesn’t project that way this time around. While Purdue has done its part, entering Saturday with a top five ranking and a 12-1 record, Wisconsin looks like a diminished foe, sitting at just 9-4 overall and entering this matchup without a top 50 KenPom win. As such, this has more the feel of a “David vs Goliath” meeting than a battle between two heavyweights.

The good news for the Badgers is the team will get this one at home and the group has had plenty of time to prepare for this opportunity, having avoided any serious games since December 19th. Nick Boyd and John Blackwell have also been playing solidly in the backcourt. If Wisconsin is going to pull off the upset, they’re going to have to be excellent to hang with Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. Rebounding and converting on easy opportunities will also be paramount. Wisconsin has struggled on the offensive boards, so Purdue will likely clean up there if the Badgers miss.

Generally speaking, there aren’t a ton of reasons to pick Wisconsin here — the Boilers are clearly a superior team and have played like it so far this season. Still, Purdue will have to put in some work if it’s going to escape with a win. It’s going to be a fantastic environment in Madison.