Last year, the Yankees lost Gerrit Cole, in what was probably the last true year of his prime. A loss like that would reverberate throughout a team’s entire season, usually. Instead, the Yankees more or less recreated Cole in the form of Cam Schlittler, now the favorite for the AL Cy Young and starting Game 1 of the Wild Card Series this week.
Garrett Crochet is Boston’s version of Cole: the ace, the guy you work day and night to land, and then pay him handsomely to start the big games. He has not
thrown a pitch in anger since April 25th, and yet the Sox boast the third-best pitching staff in baseball, with only the Dodgers and Phillies notching more fWAR as a total unit. We start at the top, where Payton Tolle, Ranger Suarez, and Sonny Gray will likely take the ball in the three Wild Card games against the Yankees (in a yet-to-be-announced order).
Wild Card Series Game 1: Tuesday, September 29, 8pm EST
Wild Card Series Game 2: Wednesday, September 30, 8pm EST
Wild Card Series Game 3: Thursday, October 1, 8pm EST (if necessary)
Tolle has built a solid case for AL Rookie of the Year, and while he probably won’t take the award home, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him as one of the finalists. The lefty features six pitches but like Schlittler, will offer a fastball of some variety about two-thirds of the time. He has faced the Yankees twice, allowing just a single run across 13 innings in those two outings. This will be his first postseason start, though he did retire the only batter he faced in a relief appearance last October in the Bronx (Trent Grisham with the bases loaded).
Suarez has been everything the Sox could hope for when they inked him to that five-year, $130 million contract last winter. A four-win season as the No. 2 man in the rotation, I could probably copy and paste what I said above about Tolle here, just with more postseason experience on Suarez’s time from his Phillies days. The same six pitches, the same fastball-heavy approach. The first two games of this series will see the Yankees facing a bunch of heaters in the zone — they’ll need to be ready to swing. During his October tenure in Philly, Suarez had a superb 1.48 ERA across eight starts and three relief outings from 2022-25.
Former Yankees righty Sonny Gray rounds out the trio, continuing to defy the aging curve with another 3.5 win season at 36 years old. He offers a different look than the two southpaws and will be making his first playoff appearance since 2023 with the Twins.
The rotation is formidable, but what really worries me is the strength of the bullpen, as well as a couple injections the unit is getting. We’ve seen the Yankees win a lot of games this year by being iced out by the starter and breaking out late against relievers, but that’ll be a tough out with the Red Sox, whose relief corps has the best ERA and FIP in the sport. Aroldis Chapman, for all his personal faults, is putting the finishing touches on what is a Hall of Fame resume, with 35 saves and a 33-percent strikeout rate holding down the ninth inning.
But before you even get to the ninth, there’s a series of very hard-throwing hurdles to clear. Garrett Whitlock elevated his game this season with a cripplingly low walk rate, deciding to just not throw balls anymore. Brayan Bello is only a reliever in name, following an opener much of the year; he’ll also be an option should the Red Sox need a guy that can deliver more than three outs. (Tyron Guerrero also came out of baseball irrelevance to re-establish himself as one of Chad Tracy’s favorite weapons, though a lat strain will sideline him for this sseries.)
Jake Bennett made the most of his May 1st call-up from Pawtucket, putting up 2.5 wins in 113.1 innings, but like Carlos Rodón, he’ll be shifted to a reliever role as well, at least for this series. The man chiefly tasked with replacing Crochet has faced the Yankees twice this year, facing 44 batters and allowing just eight of them to reach base. And then, of course…
I’m writing this at 1pm Pacific time on Sunday, and I gotta admit. I feel more confident that Crochet will be on the Red Sox Wild Card roster than Aaron Judge will be on the Yankees’. I don’t imagine the club will push their ace very far in a bullpen role, surely one inning at a time only, but we’ve seen what the southpaw’s stuff looks like, and if it plays up in relief like many guys find, that’s as devastating a one-two southpaw punch between him and Chapman as you’ll ever see.
This is not going to be an easy series. The Yankees have a lot to contend with when it comes to the octopus of Red Sox pitching, and the lineup doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Maybe they’ll surprise us all, but the pressure has to be on New York’s own collection of arms to hold serve given what Boston has at its disposal.
