The presumed matchup is set and one of the best from the Big Ten will take on one of the best from the SEC to see who can advance to the Sweet Sixteen. The Minnesota Golden Gophers got past #13 seed Green Bay in the First Round with a fourth quarter domination—winning the ten minute period 30-9 to propel them to a 75-58 victory. But Minnesota will not be able to play that poorly for the first three periods on Sunday. Ole Miss dominated the opening three quarters against #12 seeded Gonzaga taking
a 31 point lead into the fourth quarter. Then the Zags made a furious run going on a 20-2 run at one point to cut the Rebels lead to just ten, but Ole Miss would finish off a 81-66 victory. If you ask anyone associated with the Ole Miss program from the coaching staff to the players to even the band which was chanting ‘SEE! SEC!“ during their win over the Zags, they think that the SEC is superior to everyone else. In her press conference yesterday, Ole Miss coach Yolette McPhee-McCuin stated that the SEC is a different world. ‘Well, the SEC is the baby WNBA and in the WNBA you’re playing with grown women, and so there is a component that if you’re not physical enough you won’t be able to succeed. Most times, in most things, right, unless you’re doing ice skating or something like that. Maybe you need to be a little lighter. But physicality usually reigns supreme in the sports world.” It’s now up to the Gophers to prove her wrong.
#4 Minnesota Golden Gophers Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 23-8 (13-5)
#5 Ole Miss Rebels
Record: 24-11 (8-8)
KEYS TO A GOPHER WIN:
PROTECT THE BALL:
This is the absolute number one key, and frankly none of the other ones will matter if this one isn’t achieved. Ole Miss thrives off of turnovers and transition baskets. They are physical in both the front court and the back court and if the Gophers can not make smart passes and play with the same intensity this one could get ugly quick. While the Gophers are one of the best teams in the nation at not turning the ball over averaging just over 11 per game. We have seen them struggle at times with intense full court pressure. The Rebels will bring that from the opening tip. There can be no excuse for not being ready for it. Ole Miss turns teams over more than 18 times per game and averages more than 20 points per game off of turnovers. If at the end of the game the final Gopher turnover number is a lot closer to that 18 than the 11, things probably will not have gone Minnesota’s way.
Return the Physicality:
One thing that I think took the Gophers by surprise in the early moments of the Green Bay game was the level oh physicality that was being allowed. The referees were not calling a ton of physical fouls early in the game and Minnesota appeared to be put off by that. Ole Miss on the other hand is that physical. They will push, shove, bang, and attack until the referees decide to call them on it. Center Christeen Iwuala who is 6’3 is a physical beast and will make Sophie Hart and Finau Tonga work hard all game long. She is the Rebels second leading scorer at 12.6 points per game and is an absolute beast on the boards grabbing 8.4 rebounds a game and 3.5 of those are offensive rebounds. But the Ole Miss guards are even more physical. Sira Thienou returned to the lineup after missing several games with an injury and dominated the guard play with her physicality scoring 12 points and leading the team in rebounds, blocks and steals with eight, four and three. She will be a very touch matchup for either Tori McKinney or Amaya Battle. That not even taking into consideration former Ohio State star and now Ole Miss star Cotie McMahon. The former Buckeye is familiar with the Gophers going 4-0 against them while at OSU. She leads the Rebels with 19.7 points per game. Minnesota will not have the size and length advantage from their guards and wings that they sometimes do. All Ole Miss’s main players are at least 6’1 and athletic. The Rebels rebound exceptionally well averaging seven more boards per game than their opponents and This will not be an easy challenge for the Gophers.
Win The Three-Point Battle
The one thing that Ole Miss is not good at is three-point shooting. The Rebels average just over 29% from beyond the arc as a team. This is where the Gophers must have an advantage. Their three point shooting was atrocious in the first half of the Green Bay game going 1-9. If that happens again Minnesota will have a high hill to climb in the second half as they likely will be down by nearly double digits. With an extra day of practice with the overinflated NCAA Tournament balls, hopefully players like Grace Grocholski and McKinney can dial in their shots. Grocholski did not score in the game against Green Bay and was 0-5 from the field. McKinney was 0-2 from three. In the second half both Battle and Mara Braun locked in and the Gophers were a combined 5-6 from three. That’s what we might need to see again if Minnesota wants to advance to Sacramento next weekend.
Prediction:
The Williams Arena crowd will be loud and ready to go. The Gophers will need to feed off of that energy and get over their nerves quickly. This Ole Miss team is a veteran group who have all mostly been to multiple NCAA Tournaments. They will not be scared of the environment. Minnesota will need to match the Rebels physicality, protect the ball, rebound well and hit shots. The Gophers likely will not be able to keep up if this turns into a game of two point shots. The Rebels have a size and speed advantage and will be able to get decent looks. If Minnesota is going to win they are going to need to hit outside shots. They have done it—but can they do it again. This one will be close to the final horn. IF the Gophers can hit their outside shots, I think they pull out a win. But if the first half Gopher offensive team from Friday shows up, there is not going to be much they can do. We go for the reverse jinx in this situation. Ole Miss 79, Minnesota 73.
Next Up:
The winner advances to Sacramento for the Sweet Sixteen next Friday at either 6:30 or 9 PM against the winner of #1 seed UCLA and #8 seed Oklahoma State.
