It’s only fitting that the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks are playing for the NFC Championship this year. Both games were among the best in the NFL this year. Both teams are 1 and 2 in DVOA. Both teams have been considered by the media to be the best. The Rams are battle tested on the road; beating the Panthers and Bears in the wild card and divisional rounds respectively. The Seahawks enjoyed the comforts of their first round bye and then dismantled the San Francisco 49ers 41-6 at home. Now
it’s time to prove who is worthy of advancing to Super Bowl LX. Let’s see who has the advantages on Conference Championship weekend…
QBs: The last time Matthew Stafford played Seattle, he went off for the tune of 457 yards and 3 touchdowns. In order for Sam Darnold to produce that kind of performance, it would have to be a regular season game. This game will define a lot about Stafford as he has the opportunity to take his team to another Super Bowl further elevating his career.
Advantage: Rams (moderate)
RBs: The Seahawks were dealt a significant blow when they found Monday that Zach Charbonnet will be out for the remainder of the playoffs because of a significant knee injury. That makes Kenneth Walker the workhorse back for Seattle. He had a promising game in Week 16 because of a 55 yard touchdown run but Walker has only averaged 60.4 yards/game in the regular season.
Kyren Williams might have been the sole offensive reason the Rams advanced past the divisional round. He carried the ball 21 times for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns. For a large part of the game he was averaging 4.6 – 4.9 yards/touch. He was also a factor in the passing game, catching 4 passes for 30 yards. Last but not least, his biggest play was the fumble recovery on a Matthew Stafford passing attempt. It was a huge heads up play when the Rams were still on their side of the field.
This is basically a push for me but I’ll actually go against the graph and say that because of Seattle’s defensive front, the Seattle running backs have a very slight edge.
Advantage: Seahawks (very slight)
WRs: Puka Nacua will need to show his heroics again this Sunday as Davante Adams production in between the 30s has waned. I think the Rams really need to consider Tutu Atwell being active for this game so that Nacua and Adams can work the intermediate. Jordan Whittington does not offer that elite speed. And while Xavier Smith has been helpful at times, his connection with Stafford is spotty at best.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was held without a first half catch in Week 16 so LA is capable of containing him. Cooper Kupp will be used here and there but does not have the same cutting ability that he did in his prime.
Advantage: Rams (slight)
TEs: This needs to be a big game for the tight ends as well. With four healthy bodies, the Rams need to challenge Seattle’s linebackers in the passing game. Ernest Jones is not the strongest in coverage and could be taken advantage of by Terrance Ferguson.
AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo are safety blankets for Darnold. Barner, in particular, has been a thorn in LA’s side in the previous two matchups.
Advantage: Push
OL: The Rams returned Kevin Dotson to their starting offensive line and it paid dividends immediately in the run game. The knock on the offensive line is that they did a poor job of picking up Chicago’s blitzes, even when they had the numbers to put “a hat on a hat”.
The Seahawks starting offensive line: Cross-Zabel-Sundell-Bradford-Lucas will be called upon to protect Darnold. Cross has been in and out of the lineup with an injury so his performance in-game is worth monitoring.
DL: Poona Ford is a dawg. His performance dictates the trajectory of the defense. Kobie Turner will be an important factor in this game when it comes to collapsing the interior of the pocket.
Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams have been allowing the Seahawks defense to ball. I expect they will take away the Rams run game. Can Avila-Shelton-Dotson do a quality job in pass protection to give Stafford enough time to win this game?
Advantage: Seahawks (very slight)
EDGE: Jared Verse was actually the lowest graded defender against the Bears. I don’t expect him to be graded poorly again against the Seahawks. LA needs the talented edge rusher to make plays on each defensive series and make the correct form tackles.
Byron Young is nursing a knee injury so I believe Josiah Stewart has to play a huge role this week.
Uchenna Nwosu and Demarcus Lawrence will come off the edge for Seattle. Both are solid but unspectacular.
Advantage: Rams (slight)
ILB: Nate Landman had at least four missed tackles against the Bears. There is definitely cause for concern since his signed extension. Maybe the best way to evaluate Verse and Landman is that you would like to see them elevate their “floor”.
The Rams picked on Ernest Jones in the passing game in the last matchup, finding space behind him on intermediate routes. If Jones sits back there, LA will need to run the ball more. If he stays greedy towards the line of scrimmage, they will continue to pass.
Once again, the Rams tight ends are a matchup to watch here.
Advantage: Seahawks (very slight)
DBs: If the Rams secondary plays like they did against Chicago, LA will be in the Super Bowl. But you have to play this game. LA did make a shuffle at cornerback going into the divisional game, starting Cobie Durant, Roger McCreary, and Quentin Lake. Darious Williams rotated in. Emmanuel Forbes was originally rotating in but was injured in the first half with a shoulder injury.
The Seahawks boast one of the best and deepest secondaries in the NFL led by Devon Witherspoon, Nick Emmanwori, Josh Jobe, Tariq Woolen, and Cobie Bryant, and Julian Love. If there an area to exploit, it would be Josh Jobe and Cobie Bryant.
Advantage: Seahawks (moderate)
ST: Harrison Mevis has elevated the Rams special teams unit with his consistency at place kicker. Special teams coverage and punting issues still remain a weakness for Los Angeles. The Rams will need to account for Rashid Shaheed who made his impact felt against the 49ers and in the last meeting against LA. My best guess is that Los Angeles will not even allow for him to have an impact on special teams.
Advantage: Seahawks (moderate)
Coaching: Mike Macdonald was brought to Seattle to solve the offensive gurus like Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. This will be a big test for Sean McVay as his playoff record against defensive coaches is spotty. I expect both coaches to have an excellent game plans. Whoever can counter the other quicker will be playing in February.
Advantage: Rams (very slight)
Will the Rams continue to be road warriors? Can the 2025 Los Angeles Rams become the next wild card team to advance & win Super Bowl LX?
Add your comments below about this week’s roster advantages.
