It is pretty annoying that the Cardinals would have a real chance at a wild card spot if they merely had a normal week last week instead of going 1-5. Even with that bad of a week, they didn’t actually lose any ground, which is mind-boggling. But 4 games out with 12 games to play and three teams in between them and the 3rd wild card spot, I think we can safely say the Cardinals are out of it. Though they do play 2 of those 3 teams over the last couple weeks, starting with the Reds.
We are very familiar
with the Reds. The Cardinals have faced them 10 times this season, and have managed to win six games. The Cardinals just won a series against them at the end of August over in Cincinnati. It was the beginning of what we call the false hope run. They won three straight series, getting themselves back to .500 and then ran into Seattle and Milwaukee. And now the Cardinals have a chance to play spoiler. And given how the Reds have fared against St. Louis so far, they may actually play spoiler.
The Reds are sort of like the Rockies – at least when the Rockies aren’t terrible – in that it probably seems like their offense is better than it is. But the Reds offense is actually quite bad. As a team, they have a 92 wRC+, which is worse than the Cardinals, although the 2nd half Cardinals have been a worse offense. Unlike the Cardinals, the Reds… do not have a great offensive player. For all the complaints about not having a star hitter, the Reds don’t have anyone who has hit as well as Ivan Herrera, Willson Contreras, or Alec Burleson.
That’s right, their leader in offense this season has been Noelvi Marte, who has been on quite the cold streak in September. He has a 114 wRC+ on the season and 45 wRC+ this month. He seems to swing at most pitches and not walk very much. They do have a decent jumble of hitters who have been above average behind Marte. TJ Friedl in CF, Austin Hays in LF, and Elly de la Cruz at SS all have between a 100 and 110 wRC+. Ke’Bryan Hayes, acquired from Pittsburgh, still has an above average hitting line with Cincy as well, with his season line being a 69 wRC+.
The Reds also have a decent number of hitters who struggle to be average offensively. Gavin Lux, after a great start, is down to a 100 wRC+. He also has played terrible defense so he’s been replacement level this season. Jake Fraley and Will Benson have wRCs+ in the 90s without great defense. Tyler Stephenson is down to a 92 wRC+ because he strikes out 34% of the time. Matt Maclain has an 80 wRC+, but a 120 wRC+ in September. They have also recently promoted Sal Stewart, their 6th ranked prospect by Fangraphs. He has a 105 wRC+, but a .383 xwOBA in his first 32 PAs. Spencer Steer doesn’t really start that much anymore because of it.
The Reds bullpen is also nothing special, although they look better by ERA and when you take into account they play half their games at Great American Ballpark. Their bullpen ranks 22nd as a team by fWAR, but the 4.13 ERA ranks 18th. Which I point out because when you factor in park factors to that ERA, it’s probably a middle of the road bullpen more than a below average one. Of course the underlying stats aren’t that good with the xFIP ranking 24th.
Emilio Pagan is their closer and he’s made a nice recovery from 2024. I always thought the deal the Reds signed him to was dumb – giving a reliever like this an opt-out is weird. But it’s worked out this year, with Pagan getting 27 saves with a 3.06 ERA. Tony Santillan is the next man up with a 2.53 ERA, although pretty mediocre advanced stats to be honest. Graham Ashcraft is a former starter and something of an elite reliever earlier in the year, has come off the IL. He’s an extreme groundball pitcher and better than his 4.12 ERA. Also relatively fresh off the IL is Chase Burns, who is now in their bullpen I guess.
And that’s pretty much their high leverage relievers. Nick Martinez throws innings in bulk, actually throwing 47 pitches on Saturday so we may not even see him. Zach Maxwell hasn’t had a good ERA, but has struck out 32% of hitters in his short MLB career. Brent Suter and Scott Barlow both pitch in lower leverage opportunities typically, which makes sense given their stats. And Connor Phillips has walked over 14% of batters but somehow has a 3.44 ERA in 15 games. So they have a decent stable of relievers they rely on, but they aren’t really elite and the middle relief and long relief portion of the bullpen isn’t great.
Monday – 6:45 PM
Zack Littell (3.78 ERA/4.96 FIP/4.35 xFIP) vs. Matthew Liberatore (4.35 ERA/4.14 FIP/4.41 xFIP)
Just need to survive for a few more starts Liberatore. I understand why they aren’t shutting him down. They want him and his arm to be able to respond to pitching a full season and actually making 30 starts will give him a better chance to do such a thing. But man he seems to be running on fumes to a certain extent at this point and I really hope this gives him a better chance to last a full season next year.
Littell was acquired from the Rays at the deadline and admittedly a bit of a weird choice to acquire a guy who had a HR problem. Unsurprisingly, he’s still had that homer problem in Cincinnati. Probably won’t be a problem playing in St. Louis though. With Cincy, he has a 4.50 ERA. He is a free agent after this season so, we will probably not see him next year in a Reds uniform.
Tuesday – 6:45 PM
Andrew Abbott (2.79 ERA/3.70 FIP/4.37 xFIP) vs. Michael McGreevy (4.44 ERA/3.84 FIP/4.22 xFIP)
Abbott is an annoying pitcher, because I still don’t really get how he manages to outpitch his advanced stats to such an extreme degree. At least this year they suggest he’s still a solid pitcher, but I’m waiting for a year where the tables tilt to the other degree. I can’t imagine this ERA-FIP is sustainable especially at GABP.
This feels like a good matchup for McGreevy, although to some extent, he does kind of feel like a pitcher where I’m not sure the opponent quality matters so much as how quickly he’s mastered his pitches in that game. Hitters have a .368 wOBA against him the 1st time through the order, and that’s not only because of the elite offenses.
Wednesday – 12:15 PM
Brady Singer (3.94 ERA/3.88 FIP/4.23 xFIP) vs. Andre Pallante (5.34 ERA/4.68 FIP/4.12 xFIP)
I’m not sure if it affects other offenses as much as it seems to affect the Cardinals, but having a Wednesday getaway game at home should be good for Andre Pallante. It usually spells doom for the Cardinals offense as all the most frustrating offensive games of the year seem to occur on Wednesday day games from my memory.
Which is also good news for Brady Singer, a perfectly respectable starting pitcher, who is right on that brink of being good enough to shut you down and bad enough for that to be immensely frustrating. I mean at least he’s not a bad pitcher shutting you down I guess.
Certainly an interesting set of games against the Reds with the only stakes being the Reds’ playoff chances and the Cardinals’ pride.
