While few analysts would have told you that either the Orioles or Royals came into the season as true World Series contenders, there was a consensus that they would at least be competitive squads that factored into the playoff race. With the unofficial halfway point of the season nearly here, predictions like those only get sillier by the day.
The Royals’ 38-56 record is the second-worst mark in the AL and the third-worst in all of MLB. That isn’t the result of bad luck either. They have a -75 run
differential, which is second-worst in MLB, better than only the Rockies (-86). To be fair, they have been better recently. Since the start of June, the Royals are just three games under .500 with a -16 run differential.
Bobby Witt Jr. is the heart and soul of the team. He leads them in most statistics, including batting average (.288), on-base percentage (.359), slugging (.464), and stolen bases (30). Jac Caglianone is the other key pillar in their offense. He leads the squad with 14 home runs. Carter Jensen drives in the runs, 49 on the year.
Injuries have impacted the lineup. Vinnie Pasquantino, who has underwhelmed when healthy, has already missed a month with a broken hamate bone. Kyle Isbel is out with plantar fasciitis. And Maikel Garcia won’t play this weekend due to a muscle strain in his hand.
The Achilles heel of these Royals may be their brutal bullpen. The unit is at or near the bottom of the league in almost everything. They rank 29th in ERA (5.22), 28th in xERA (4.98), 30th in FIP (5.15), and 28th in xFIP (4.84). Daniel Lynch IV has decent top line numbers (2.41 ERA), but some worrying underlying stats (4.14 xFIP, .214 BABIP, 7.71 K/9). Many of the other high-user relievers are pretty brutal.
A few other familiar names you won’t see this weekend due to injury are infielder Jonathan India (elbow), starters Kris Bubic (shoulder) and Cole Ragans (elbow surgery), righty Connor Seabold (lat strain), and righty Carlos Estévez (rotator cuff strain).
Game 1: Friday, July 10th, 7:05 p.m., MASN
RHP Brandon Young (7-2, 3.38 ERA) vs. RHP Luinder Avila (4-3, 5.05 ERA)
Young has been as good as the Orioles could have hoped. But he did struggle a bit in his start on the Fourth of July, allowing four runs over five innings. Some struggles might be a good things for the sophomore hurler. Bouncing back in the follow up would show some important growth.
Avila only began starting games for the Royals on June 1. Across those outings he has a 5.04 ERA, but that is skewed by one game in which he allowed eight runs and recorded just two outs. In five of his starts he has given up only one run and tossed at least five innings. Who knows what version we get in the opener.
Game 2: Saturday, July 11th, 7:05 p.m., MASN
RHP Kyle Bradish (5-9, 3.75 ERA) vs. LHP Noah Cameron (5-6, 4.77 ERA)
It hasn’t been the most linear upward trend for Bradish this year, but overall he has looked like the frontline starter that we expected him to be. Two of his last three starts have lasted at least 7.2 innings. For him, it’s all about control. If he avoids walks, he’s probably going to go deep into a game and give the O’s a chance to win. If not, the pitch count grows and it ends up as a heavy workload for the bullpen.
Prior to his last start, Cameron was in the midst of a four-game run in which he had a 9.00 ERA. His last appearance saw him give up just one run over five frames while striking out seven. The lefty’s peripherals are rather solid, and the Orioles’ struggles against southpaws are well known. So, this could be a tough matchup.
Game 3: Sunday, July 12th, 1:35 p.m., MASN
RHP Shane Baz (4-9, 4.21 ERA) vs. RHP Seth Lugo (3-6, 4.56 ERA)
We are all still waiting on Baz to become the type of pitcher that the Orioles expect him to be. He hasn’t been bad in his debut season in Baltimore. But he has been more of an innings eater than a true difference maker. His 7.57 strikeouts per nine is the worst mark of his career, as is his 3.53 walks per nine. That’s a bad combo. But he has survived due to his depressed home run rate.
Lugo is no longer the Cy Young contender he was a few seasons ago. But he is still a dependable veteran arm in a Kansas City rotation that is navigating an injury crisis. His last start, however, was rough. Over 4.1 innings he gave up nine runs (six earned) on nine hits, two walks, four strikeouts, and two home runs. His K rate and velocity are the worst of his career. The 36-year-old, however, still knows how to pitch, and could take care of an Orioles lineup that is just looking to get to the all-star break.
How many games do you think the Orioles will win in this series? Let us know in the comments.
