With the playoffs quickly approaching, there remains plenty of ambiguity as to how the Yankees’ pitching staff will shake out past the top two rotation spots. Max Fried and Carlos Rodón will start the first
and second games of a Wild Card or Division Series, but the concrete hasn’t settled on what comes after that. A big reason for that uncertainty lies in Will Warren and Cam Schlittler, two rookie pitchers who have occupied the starting rotation together throughout the second half of the season. Both young righties will take the mound one last time in this weekend series against the Orioles before the conclusion of the regular schedule, but in all likelihood, only one will get an opportunity to start a playoff game.
First, let’s address the elephant in the room: the AL East race which the Yankees officially re-tied on Thursday night. The calculus for Aaron Boone depends massively on whether the Yankees finish in first or second place in the division. If they finish first, they earn that coveted first-round bye—and get to start Fried and Rodón to kick off the ALDS. If they finish second, naturally, they’ll have to burn their top starters in order to get there. If that Wild Card Series goes to three games, we could potentially see one of Warren or Schlittler start a winner-take-all game. If they advance in two games, they will likely have to start one of them alongside 2024 playoff starter Luis Gil in one of the first two games of the Division Series on the road.
With that out of the way, let’s examine each rookie’s case in greater detail. Plenty of Yankees fans likely have preconceived notions, but it’s still an exercise worth spelling out. Warren has been a rotation mainstay in 2025 and will take the ball tonight, so let’s begin with him. It’s been a jagged year for the Mississippian, with a handful of absolute gems to go along with some high-profile clunkers; most notably a nightmarish outing at a packed Dodger Stadium which carried an October-esque atmosphere. We’ve seen such a wide range of outcomes with Warren at the hill that it’s particularly difficult to know what to expect from him in a playoff series.
As a result of that volatility, I believe Warren is less likely than Schlittler to make a postseason start, and that certainly seems to be the sentiment among the media. But let’s talk a bit more as to where that volatility comes from. Principally, Warren’s biggest issue lies in his struggles to establish a secondary offering behind his fastball. Now, it is true that the four-seamer is an outstanding pitch which has carried him at points this year. He throws either that pitch or the sinker over 60 percent of the time.
The cavities show when he has to change speeds. His sweeper misses bats at a decent clip but gets lit up when hitters make contact. The changeup and curveball are pitches he rarely if ever deploys against right-handed hitters. This lack of refinement manifests in a low chase rate and a high hard-hit rate allowed. Without an elite breaking ball or offspeed offering, hitters aren’t expanding the zone much against him—and without that threat in the back of their heads, they can start to time up his pitches within it.
In the postseason, where the margin for error shrinks considerably, pitchers will be incentivized to rely on their best options and lay off the pitches in which they don’t feel fully confident. This may cause Warren to become overly reliant on that one pitch to have any success. That can work with a reliever, as we saw with Tommy Kahnle last season, but it’s inadvisable for a starter.
Furthermore, in preparation for a playoff confrontation, opposing batters will be scouting Warren far more intensely than they have in the past. Warren’s fastball may be good enough to get him through a few innings in a postseason game, and as such I think he could be a good option to shore up what has been a shaky bullpen. But with teams getting extra time to study up on a pitcher’s tendencies, I would be nervous to see him get a starting assignment in October.
Schlittler, scheduled to toe the slab on Saturday, is just 13 starts into his MLB career. That fact is frankly the main factor working against the tall righty, who has been flat-out impressive in his first taste of the show. There have been speed bumps, like a rough outing against the Blue Jays which sent him to the showers before the end of the second inning. But he put his name squarely on the map when he kept a perfect game running into the seventh against the Rays last month.
Like Warren, Cam boasts an excellent fastball which forms the bedrock of his repertoire. This heater also comes with elite velocity, which may even enjoy a bit of a postseason bump. But more to the point, Schlittler’s secondaries have shown more promise than Warren’s thus far. The cutter, which essentially performs the role of a changeup, provides a steady middle lane between that four-seamer and his emerging curveball. That curveball is a pitch he has gained more confidence in as he’s built up reps in the Majors, and while it hasn’t wowed on its own in terms of the numbers, it’s definitely a pitch you have to keep in mind when you face him.
Also like Warren, Schlittler occasionally struggles with his command. His 10.8-percent walk rate means he could get himself into some jams in a postseason start. If Schlittler looks overwhelmed by the moment out there and begins misfiring, the hook will come very early. Such risk is inherent in every youngster who gets the call in a postseason assignment, but especially a guy with such high-octane stuff (think 2017 Luis Severino). That said, his upside is so tantalizing as to be literally unhittable at the top of his game; ask the Rays about that.
Returning to the hypothetical we discussed earlier, Schlittler would be on four days’ rest entering the third game of a Wild Card series—Warren would be on five. With Gil scheduled to start the regular season finale on Sunday, the two rookies are the main candidates to start a Wild Card elimination game, should it come to that, and honestly the bullpen would factor heavily into a win-or-go-home regardless. The high-leverage arms will be first to enter in a close game, but Warren could have a role to play in the postseason ‘pen as well.
Overall, there’s more to like in Schlittler’s profile than Warren’s, but above all this discussion serves to highlight just how much the Yankees stand to gain from finding a way to steal the AL East crown from Toronto. The Bombers would do well to avoid having to consider placing their entire season on the shoulders of a rookie starting pitcher, no matter how talented.
