It was always going to be a long shot.
Harry Kane is currently having the best individual scoring season of any player not named Leo Messi. Fans and pundits named him as one of their favorites for the Ballon d’Or this year. Then, on a warm Wednesday evening in Atlanta, the dream came crashing down.
A recap of England’s loss to Argentina is not needed. The simple fact is, Harry Kane will not play his first ever World Cup final on Sunday. That means the Ballon d’Or is out of reach. It can’t happen.
But why?
In
a World Cup year, you have to perform in the World Cup to nab a Ballon d’Or. The fact that Harry Kane was eliminated from the tournament in the semi-finals, without scoring a goal in his last two games, is devastating for the narrative around his Ballon d’Or candidacy.
Extenuating factors could have kept the dream alive. If Bayern Munich had won the UEFA Champions League this year, Kane would still be a major favorite for the award — depending on the outcome of the final. If Spain were to become the eventual winners, then lacking any obvious candidates for the Ballon d’Or, Kane naturally becomes the next best option.
There is precedent for this. In 2018, Luka Modrić won the Champions League with Real Madrid but came up short in the World Cup final against France. Despite this, with France lacking any obvious players with Ballon d’Or potential, the Croatian won the award in the end.
If England had made the final, then Kane would still be in with a shout. No longer the favorite, but still in the running. Even if Spain won it eventually, their main player Lamine Yamal lacked a strong World Cup scoring campaign. That could have worked against him, handing Kane the award.
As it stands, though, none of these scenarios will come to pass. The Ballon d’Or will either go to a player from Spain, Argentina, or Paris Saint-Germain. Even Leo Messi should not be ruled out, given how he has played for his country in this World Cup. Harry Kane will have to hunker down and focus on his club career for the moment. If he wins the Champions League with Bayern Munich, then maybe the Ballon d’Or might become his.
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