It’s not an exaggeration to say that Saturday night’s game between Ohio State (19-11, 11-8) and Indiana (18-12, 9-10) is the biggest game of the Jake Diebler era. Seeking out their 20th win of the year and 12th Big Ten win, the Buckeyes could all but lock up their first NCAA Tournament bid since 2022 with a win. Ohio State is currently projected as a high 11-seed according to Bracket Matrix, so another win should give them enough wiggle room to make the NCAA Tournament field even if there are several
bid stealers next week.
Indiana, on the other hand, is playing for its tournament life. The Hoosiers are currently considered the last team in the NCAA Tournament. A win would increase their odds of making the big dance for the first time since 2023. A loss, and the Hoosiers would likely miss the NCAA Tournament.
There’s also a lot of off-the-court stuff going on Saturday. Christoph Tilly, Brandon Noel, and Bruce Thornton will all be honored before the game for senior day. Thornton is chasing Ohio State’s all-time scoring record, and needs 12 points on Saturday to pass Dennis Hopson — who will be in attendance — to become the program’s all-time leading scorer. To top it off, it’s also Bruce Thornton bobblehead day.
Without predicting an exact score, here’s four other predictions for Saturday’s game:
Bruce Thornton becomes Ohio State’s all-time leading scorer
We’ll start with the low-hanging fruit.
Thornton is 12 points away from becoming Ohio State’s all-time leading scorer. In a must-win game that could essentially lock up his first ever NCAA Tournament appearance, Thornton is going to at least score enough to set the record. Thornton scored 18 points on 7-for-15 shooting and grabbed six rebounds last season against Indiana at Assembly Hall.
Christoph Tilly has his most productive game as a Buckeye
Tilly, who will also be celebrated before the game for Senior Day, is the clear fourth option for Ohio State on offense. Between Thornton’s pursuit of the all-time scoring record and John Mobley Jr. knocking down eight three-pointers in Ohio State’s most recent game, I think the Hoosiers will be laser-focused on slowing down the Buckeye backcourt.
Because of that — plus Indiana’s general lack of size — I think the Hoosiers will let defenders guard Tilly one-on-one most of the afternoon. Tilly’s only 20-point game came in Ohio State’s season-opening win over IU Indy, when he had 29 points and nine rebounds. I’m not sure he’ll top the 29 points, but I think Tilly shows out, hits at least one three-pointer, and has his most impactful game as a Buckeye at the time when his team needs it the most.
One Hoosier star goes for 25+, the other is held to single-digits
Indiana is led by its star duo of Lamar Wilkerson (21.1 PPG) and Tucker DeVries (13.8). Each individually is capable of playing like an All-American who can single-handedly take over a game. When both are playing at the top of their game, Indiana is very difficult to slow down.
Both Wilkerson and DeVries are high-volume three-point shooters — 57.3% of Wilkerson’s shots are three-pointers, while 68.8% of DeVries’ shots are. However, Wilkerson has been better shooting the long ball this season at 38.4%, compared to DeVries’ 34.2%.
Ohio State can probably survive one of Indiana’s two stars having a big day, but not both. If the Buckeyes can key in on one of those two and prevent it from being a two-headed dragon, they’ll have a better chance to win.
It’s a one-possession game with six minutes remaining
Ohio State has lost each of its last five games against Indiana. Each of the last four losses have been by single-digits, and two of those were one-possession games. Last season, Ohio State had a lead in the final two minutes of both games against the Hoosiers and lost both. Indiana has had its way with Ohio State lately, but man, it’s been close pretty much every time.
I do not expect the Hoosiers to roll over on Saturday night with their entire season on the line. They’ve put up a few stinkers on the road this season, but have also won on the road at UCLA — another NCAA Tournament team.
Ohio State clobbering Penn State the way they did certainly earned Indiana’s respect and attention, so I don’t anticipate another runaway win on Saturday. The Hoosiers will have had a few days to try to scheme up ways to eliminate open looks for Mobley, stop Thornton from getting to the basket, and preventing Devin Royal from receiving those entry passes so deep in the paint.
