ESPN’s FPI Rankings continue to puzzle us.
Despite storming into Lincoln and defeating the Nebraska Cornhuskers, 30-27, the Michigan Wolverines have fallen two spots in the index. Michigan now has an FPI score of 18.0 and is within half a point of Penn State. The FPI has Michigan as the No. 12 team in the nation with a projected win-loss record of 8.9-3.3, a touch higher than last week’s diagnosis.
Sure, Ohio State (22.4), a surging Indiana (21.4) — which leapt 10 spots to No. 6 overall after a thorough
beating of Illinois over the weekend — and a much-improved USC (20.8) are still ahead of the Wolverines as far as Big Ten teams are concerned, but this conference is far from impossible to conquer. Michigan is also a program that tends to play its best ball later in the season, when the midwestern air tightens the game and unrelenting trench play wears opponents down.
Perhaps the most encouraging tidbit from this iteration of the FPI is the Wolverines’ playoff odds, which are now at 31.1 percent after the marquee victory. Though Nebraska is not the toughest of foes, exiting that raucous environment unscathed, with a true freshman quarterback and an interim head coach, is no easy task.
Michigan enters its first bye week of the season on a high and will have more than enough time to prepare for a middling Wisconsin squad on Oct. 4 at the Big House. And after hopefully dismantling the Badgers, the Wolverines head west for a showdown at USC. A lot can change between then and now, but expect a high-profile, high-pressure Big Ten contest similar to this most recent one at the Cornhuskers.
