As the opening half of Carolina’s 84-78 loss to California unfolded, my primary thought was: here we go again. Another game where the opposing team absolutely blitzes the Heels with a barrage of three-pointers, many of them uncontested. Cal shot a whooping 63% from long range in the first half, canning 10 three-pointers enroute to a 17-point halftime lead. Usually, when a team puts on this kind of a show in a half you just shrug and move on; that kind of shooting is almost always unsustainable. Yet
it’s quickly becoming commonplace to see UNC’s opponents lighting it up from behind the arc since we moved into 2026.
The Heels are 1-3 since the start of the calendar year. By far, the biggest difference has been on the defensive side of the ball. The Heels were a borderline top 20 defense in the country according to KenPom; after Saturday’s loss, they’ve fallen to 52nd. That’s a shocking drop in just four games. UNC hadn’t allowed anyone to score more than 74 points in their first 14 games; they’ve allowed an average of 90 points a game over their last four. The Heels three-point defense has particularly been abysmal. UNC’s last four opponents (SMU, Wake Forest, Stanford and Cal) have collectively shot 50% from three. And they’ve shot 50% on a very high volume of threes, collectively nailing 58 triples. While four games is certainly a small sample size compared to a whole season, it’s worth noting that the worst team in the country at defending the three (Southern Utah, if you were wondering) only allows a make on 42.2% of their opponents three-point attempts.
Opposing guards are primarily responsible for the damage done to UNC’s defense. SMU’s Boopie Miller scored 27 points and dished out 12 assists in the Mustang’s win against the Heels. Wake Forest’s guard combo of Juke Harris and Nate Calmese combined for 56 points of 20 of 34 shooting in the Deac’s narrow loss to Carolina. Stanford’s Ebuka Okorie exploded for 36 points and nine assists in the Cardinals win. And finally, Cal’s guard combo of Justin Pippen and Dai Dai Ames combined for 38 points in the Golden Bears upset win. While guard play has given the Heels fits previously this season (Michigan State’s Jermey Fears, Jr. in particular come to mind), UNC seems incapable of slowing down opposing guards in their last four games.
Surprisingly, UNC’s poor defensive stretch coincides somewhat with Seth Trimbles return from his early season injury. I wrote a few weeks back that his return could potentially provide a boost to an already good UNC defense. Instead, UNC’s four worst games of the season defensively have come since his return. I’m by no means laying all the Heels struggles on Trimble — Kyan Evans has looked completely lost on both sides of the ball — but these are the situations your senior leader needs to step up. So far, Trimble hasn’t risen to the occasion.
It’s hard to say where the Heels go from here. Some of the defensive issues appear to simply be a lack of attention and effort. Those can be remedied pretty quickly, as evidenced by the Heels playing solid defense in the second half of the Cal game as they mounted a comeback. Hubert Davis has his work cut out for him. He swapped out the struggling Evans for freshman Derek Dixon as the starting point guard against the Golden Bears. While Dixon overall had a solid debut as a starter, the Heels were still bulldozed in the opening 20 minutes. It wouldn’t shock me to see more Jaydon Young; Davis game him 14 minutes against Cal, mostly in the second half. Simply shoring up the focus and effort combined with at least a little regression on UNC’s opponents shooting could be enough to stabilize the Heels defense. Whether Davis can get Carolina there will be the open question for this season, and potentially for his future as UNC’s head coach.
