Let’s get the hard part out of the way: Kerkering made a terrible error in game four of the NLDS that ended the Phillies’ 2025 season. It was an atrocious way to go out, and still stings to think about. It’s been discussed more times than necessary, so we don’t need to go over it again here.
And let’s be honest… even with a perfect play in that situation, there’s no guarantee that the Phillies win the game. Even if they won that game, they were still down in the series against a juggernaut of an opponent.
Mistakes happen in baseball all the time, that’s why there’s an entire stat category dedicated to them. Kerkering’s most egregious mistake of his career just happened to come at the worst possible time. Moving on from that play is not only best for Kerkering, but also for Phillies fans in general.
2025 stats:
69 games, 60 IP, 8-4, 3.30 ERA, 134 ERA+, 65 K, 27 BB, 0.7 fWAR
What went right:
From May 1 through July 5, he allowed just two runs in 23.1 innings, an ERA of 0.77. At the time, other members of the bullpen were struggling so his positive performance was extra important.
For what it’s worth, according to Statcast the average exit velocity of batted balls against him was down to 85.9 MPH, a career-low and in the top 2% of MLB.
His 24.4 K% puts him in the top-75 of relief pitchers, and 51st among right-handed relievers. His 10.2 BB% has him in the top-75 of right-handed relievers. While not great, he could have been far worse. Silver linings, right? He also recorded his first career save on June 16 against the Marlins.
What went wrong:
The main season-long struggle with Orion Kerkering, which isn’t new, is that his bad outings tend to clump together and feed off each other. One rough appearance turns into two, turns into, turns into three… the next thing you know, he’s given up 7 earned runs in 13 innings over the course of one month. It’s hard to know which version of him we’re going to see, and it’s difficult to see the light at the end of the tunnel when he’s struggling.
The future with the Phillies:
The good news is that the Phillies have shown a tremendous amount of support for Kerkering since his game four error. He’s got all the resources available to help him move past it, and has the backing of his GM, manager, and teammates. That kind of support goes a long way towards recovering from a situation like this.
With that being said, it’s unclear how he’ll respond come next season. Is his mental fortitude, which was already a problem, shot or will he come back stronger? Will the Phillies ever be able to trust him in a high-leverage situation like that again? If not, is he worth keeping on the roster going forward?
With three options still remaining and another season before he’s arbitration-eligible, it’s likely the Phillies will stick with him for now. He’ll get the coaching he needs, both physically and mentally, and they’ll give him the best chance possible to succeed with the Phillies. But if another team expresses interest in him, it wouldn’t be a major loss to see him shipped elsewhere. Maybe a change of scenery would do him good.
