Go back to the start of September when the Pittsburgh Penguins were just entering training camp, and imagine somebody telling you this week the Penguins would be playing their third consecutive meaningless game, preparing to sit everybody important for Game 82 so they can be ready for the playoffs.
Then imagine the Penguins would be spending that week likely preparing to play either the Philadelphia Flyers or Washington Capitals in the first round.
Chaos. Mayhem. You would have never believed it.
Nor
would you have believed an 18-year-old Ben Kindel would show up right from the NHL Draft and make an immediate impact. Or that Anthony Mantha would be the team’s leading goal-scorer. Or that they would find another potential star in Egor Chinakhov, one that is just entering his prime years, in a mid-season trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Or that Stuart Skinner would be their starting goalie thanks to a Tristan Jarry trade. Or that Erik Karlsson would rediscover his Norris Trophy form. Or that Parker Wotherspoon would be a reliable first-pairing defenseman partner for him.
Each of these things on their own seem a little unbelievable. All of them together would have seemed impossible. But here we are, and after playing two meaningless games (for themselves) over the weekend, the Penguins have one more game that does not matter on Tuesday night at the St. Louis Blues.
It is really not even worth trying to analyze that game because it means literally nothing.
The Penguins spot as the No. 2 seed in the Metropolitan Division is locked in. They will not move up. They will not move down. They have home-ice advantage in the first-round, no matter who they play. The Blues, meanwhile, are already mathematically eliminated from Stanley Cup Playoff contention. None of the Penguins top players are expected to play, and it is the right call.
The focus now is Saturday. That is when the Stanley Cup Playoffs begin, and the Penguins are still waiting to see who their opponent will be.
The odds are that it will be the Flyers. Philadelphia needs just one win, or two points via two overtime losses, to clinch the No. 3 seed in the Metropolitan Division.
They can do that on Monday night with a win against the Carolina Hurricanes.
If they lose that game, and especially if they lose that game in regulation, it would set up a potentially massive game between the Washington Capitals and Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday night. The winner would still be relying on yet another Flyers loss, but it would at least produce some tremendous theatre.
Regardless of which team the Penguins play, I would put them as favorites in any matchup, but the Capitals would be the one I feel the worst about from their perspective. Washington is better than its record indicates, is the best 5-on-5 team of the three potential opponents and also has the best goalie in Logan Thompson. Thompson is a legitimate Vezina candidate this season and has been one of the league’s best goalies. I would rather take my chances against Dan Vladar or Elvis Merzlikins and Jet Greaves than him.
The Flyers defend exceptionally well, allowing just 2.38 expected goals against per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play, the third-best mark in the NHL behind only the Vegas Golden Knights and Ottawa Senators. They are not an especially potent offensive team, however, and have only won 26 games in regulation going into Monday.
Assuming they get in, they will be the only Eastern Conference playoff team that will have less than 30 regulation wins. They have 26 going into Monday, and can only max out at 28. Every other team that has clinched a spot has at least 32. They also have just 32 regulation and overtime wins, also the fewest among Eastern Conference playoff teams. They have been heavily boosted by a 9-4 shootout record.
Columbus has had one of the weirdest seasons in the league, underwhelming for the first half of the season, looking unbeatable after the coaching change from Dean Evason to Rick Bowness, and then completely going in the tank when it played itself back into playoff contention, losing nine of their past 12 games going into play on Tuesday.
There would be some intrigue with this matchup given the presence of Chinakhov in Pittsburgh and the way his season (and potentially career) has turned around since the trade. This would be a different type of revenge series.
Overall the Penguins are 5-2-4 against the three teams this season, with all four overtime losses being in shootouts. There is no shootout in the playoffs. The only two regulation defeats were against the Capitals this past weekend, games where the Penguins had nothing to play for, rested a bunch of people, and games the Capitals absolutely had to have.
They should matchup well with any of these teams. They can beat any of these teams. Now they have to actually show they can do it.
