Just when it looked like hope in the season was about to start getting drained out following a 2-4 start and a meeting against the undefeated San Francisco 49ers on tap, the Falcons had an unexpected victory in dominating fashion to give this roller coaster ride another swing upwards, as has been their MO for years.
Of course, Falcons fashion would be losing the next game after an exhilarating victory to let the fanbase down and send this ride going the right back down the other way. If they want
to be taken seriously, it’s imperative that they buck the trend this weekend against the Buccaneers.
Atlanta makes the trip down to Florida for its first game against the Bucs of the season and it may well be the most important one of the campaign up to this point.
Here is the scenario the Falcons face if they beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 8, as well as if they lose.
If the Falcons win
They would climb back up to .500 at about the halfway mark of the season which, given the schedule and the 0-2 start behind Cooper Rush, would feel like a minor miracle. Back to back victories against the 49ers and Buccaneers would have much of the fanbase buying back in. They would also have weathered the eight game storm without the suspended James Pearce Jr., who is eligible to return next week.
With Carolina’s defeat against the Packers on Thursday Night Football (I guess beating Green Bay on TNF isn’t for everybody), the Falcons would move into sole possession of first place in the NFC South, and would drop Tampa Bay and New Orleans to two games behind them in the win column, solidifying this as a two horse race for the time being.
The algorithm at playoffstatus.com currently gives the Falcons a 17% chance of winning the division and a 37% chance of making the playoffs as of today. Those numbers would increase to 23% and 46%, respectfully, which I know don’t seem like much, but that’s huge movement when dictated by just one game in the middle of the season.
The Birds would continue a recent period of success against the Bucs, winning their sixth meeting in the last eight against Tampa Bay, dating back to 2024.
If the Falcons lose
Then it will be another case of “typical Falcons,” with another big let down following a euphoric victory. No matter the head coach or front office over the last decade, this will continue being the groundhog day type plague that continues tripping this franchise up.
To make matters worse, this would also be Atlanta’s second divisional loss in three games. You don’t have to look further than last season to realize how detrimental these divisional losses can be as the Falcons wound up tied for first in the NFC South but were mathematically eliminated a month before the end of the season because of their inferiority when it came to the tiebreakers.
The Falcons would remain a half game behind the Panthers and would actually fall to third in the division due to the head to head tiebreaker Tampa would possess while sitting at an identical 3-5 record. Carolina, remember, also owns the tiebreaker over the Birds as of this moment.
Atlanta’s odds at the division would fall from 17% to 15% and their overall playoff odds would fall from 37% to 28%, as any hope of even potentially fighting for a wildcard spot would take a major blow. Their next two games are against the Bengals and Chiefs, which could take things from bad to worse in a hurry.
