Since this is, technically, a day-late game recap, the New York Liberty did not play that poorly against the Golden State Valkyries on Sunday night. Is it fair to be concerned about the state of the 12-8 team right now, on the eve of their Commissioner’s Cup Final against the Las Vegas Aces? Sure, but if Sabrina Ionescu never finds mid-season form and Satou Sabally can’t stay on the court, the team’s ceiling is lower than many hoped.
That’s not new information, though. Long story short, I thought
NYL handled Golden State’s ball-pressure and defensive activity much better in the rematch, as compared to the 17-point loss in May. They just didn’t have it — that extra verve that you need against a good, well-rested team like the Valks at on the final day of a winding road trip. The Libs turned it over a dozen times (15 in the first meeting) but turnovers didn’t really kill them until the game was out of hand.
The offensive game-plan early was pretty strong; set plays were run through the post as a workaround to GSV’s defensive pressure. In the flow, Jonquel Jones was often stationed at the top of the key, meaning she was a frequent pick-and-roll ball-handler early…
New York just couldn’t make a shot in the first quarter. That’s basketball, Suzyn. Golden State really tightened up their switching as the game went on (great defensive team!), but I feel like the Libs could have kept spamming Jonquel as pick-and-roll handler…
This is asking a great deal of your 6’6″ big, but on defense, NYL tried to lighten JJ’s load by keeping ball-screens out of the middle and funneling drivers to her in drop. They had some really strong possessions and I thought Sabrina Ionescu cleared a low bar of defensive improvement on Sunday night. Here, Sabrina. denies Williams the middle. With JJ parked in the lane, Williams takes a decently tough three NYL lives with…
Here’s another encouraging stat other than the turnovers: By my count, the New York Liberty had nine late-clock possessions in the half-court in the first matchup (as in, the shot-clock dipped below 6.0 nine times.) On Sunday, on a similar number of possessions, the Liberty played late into the clock just three times.
The Liberty couldn’t make shots from anywhere really, and when the game started slipping away, players took a few unnecessary home-run swings (like that Leonie Fiebich one-handed turnover in transition), but the Valks didn’t grind them to a halt, in my eyes.
Of course, individual players have to be better, including Ionescu…
That said, we saw glimpses of potential for the Astier-Ionescu backcourt. Sabrina got a couple good catch-and-shoot looks off of Astier drives, and just as importantly, Astier was able to apply rim pressure off-the-catch. She has some wild quick twitch-ability (particularly compared to her teammates) that could get her to the rim even if defenders sag off her during a Ionescu-run pick-and-roll. I think the Liberty will close big games with Ionescu + two wings + two bigs, and Marine Johannès will have a bigger role in games where she’s clearly feeling it from deep … but again, Astier/Ionescu is a real exciting partnership in my eyes.
I also think Chris DeMarco & Co. breaking through with Jonquel Jones. She’s handling far more in the pick-and-roll, is bombing away from deep, but is also using her size to drive mismatches. Jones will still post-up and seal switches, but it feels different from seasons past, where the only way to get her near the basket is a stale attempt to post her up. Given how lopsided the officiating is for drivers vs. post-up players, she’s now facing a bit less resistance on her way to the bucket (it helps that she’s a ridiculous outside shooter).
Scoring 29 points in the first half of a nationally televised game invites slander. So does a 12-8 record, if you’re the overwhelming betting favorite to win the title. But I can’t find too many reasons to panic about the New York Liberty. It’s natural to run out of gas on the last leg of a road trip, and frankly, I don’t have high hopes for their stamina level against the Aces on Tuesday night. (Let’s just emphasize again: The Valkyries were awesome defensively. The Liberty mostly met the challenge, but the well-rested home team was the first to hit shots, an unrecoverable blow for New York. Even Stewie, for goodness sakes, was lapsing on defense.)
If there is one long-term worry outside of Sabally’s health and Ionescu’s hopeful progression to her mean, it’s the backup wing/forward spots. Raquel Carrera is clearly talented, but she’s still on the steep end of the learning curve. Asking her to provide positive playoff minutes this season is a big ask. Han Xu, meanwhile, has earned a higher spot in the rotation, and not just because she’s hitting jumpers. This looks like a simple play, but containing a driver in drop and switching back off constitutes real progress for Han, and at 6’11”, that’s enough.
Do you trust Han as the third big in a playoff setting? That’s not a rhetorical question, to be clear, but one the Liberty will have to figure out before the trade deadline.
As for the wings, Rebekah Gardner is a fine 8th or 9th rotation player. Flawed? Yes. But she is constantly generating extra possessions for the Liberty with her hustle, whether grabbing offensive boards or generating opponent turnovers. Not to harp on it too much, but Betnijah Laney-Hamilton is the wildcard right now. I am not reporting any strife, but merely wondering aloud if she’s going to settle into playing a dozen minutes a night after averaging 30 over her first four seasons with the Liberty. We’ve got about three weeks until the All-Star break, and I think it’s something of a “prove-it” stretch for the franchise legend, never an easy situation.
Anyway, some news…
Next Up
Commissioner’s Cup Final. 7:00 p.m. ET. ESPN. A familiar foe.
