The Colts built a high-powered offense last season by avoiding reliance on one player to carry the load. Instead, they leaned on a deep group of skill players that kept defenses guessing about where the ball was going on every play.
As they got deeper into the season, they realized that Alec Pierce, Tyler Warren, and Jonathan Taylor were the true focal points of the offense. When there was a big play to be dialed up, the ball was normally going to go there way.
While I’ve been critical of Michael Pittman
Jr. over the years, his role in the offense is still important. He seldomly created big plays after the catch, he didn’t lift the coverage of a defense with speed, and he didn’t separate like some of the best in the league did. But what he did have was reliability. He could run rudimentary routes and you could trust that he would catch it. Over time, he became a lot tougher in the run game and could be relied on to execute difficult blocking assignments. If he was covered he could still make a play on the ball with his size.
It was not worth the contract or a potential extension, but it did offer the Colts some much needed reliability as a Z WR.
Now that spot becomes awfully bare heading into to OTA’s and training camp. The company line seems to be “We love Josh Downs and think he needs the ball more.”
I don’t deny that the Colts love Josh Downs— and maybe with the resurgence of the tiny WR, they believe they can use him similar to how Klint Kubiak and the Seahawks have used Jaxon Smith Njigba.
I have my doubts. But more on that later.
THE SCHEMATIC ADVANTAGE OF HAVING A DEEP WR CORE
If you don’t have one of the elite WR’s in the game on your roster, then you better have a LOT of good WRs. If you can keep defenses guessing on where the ball is going to go, it forces them to defend every blade of grass. As we saw earlier in the year, sometimes that can be just as effective as having the dominant player.
This is a good example of when that does NOT happen.
The Colts are running a Sail concept. A sail concept is a vertical stretch concept where you’re attempting to create a hi/lo on a defender. Daniel Jones is expecting that nickel defender to match Michael Pittman vertical and create space for Tyler Warren on the Sail route (modified corner route). I wont speculate here but Michael Pittman is either not running this route at full speed, or is not capable of running this route at a speed fast enough to apply pressure on that nickel defender. Either way, it is bad.
What worries me about the Colts heading into next season is what happens when teams can do things like that. Ashton Dulin can play that specific role, but will teams really respect his ability to be a viable option in a progression? Do the Colts think he can do that after sitting on the bottom of the depth chart for numerous years now? Can Nick Westbrook-Ikhine be that guy? Can 7th round pick Deion Burks be that guy? What if there’s an injury at WR?
The Colts need to improve the depth there but it’s not too late either.
WHO MIGHT FIT THE COLTS
There’s been a lot of Deebo Samuel smoke. I do not believe the Colts will look in that direction, personally. Deebo, at this stage in his career, is a gadget piece to an offense. You want to get the ball in his hands, but he’s not a guy who will fit this system in particular.
Two names that are really interesting.
First, Keenan Allen. Keenan has spent time with Shane Steichen in his past and put up a quiet 81 catch sub 800 yard season with the Chargers. Do I think he can replicate that in Indy? No. But could he be a piece that the Colts explore in training camp and see if he can add some depth to the room? Perhaps.
The second is Noah Brown. He’s 30 years old but had some really underrated season with the Cowboys a couple years ago. He’s battled some injuries last year, so that’s a bit of an unknown, but he has some traits I think the Colts like.
This is from 2022, but a sequence I could see Shane Steichen wanting to draw up for Michael Pittman Jr.
I don’t think Noah Brown is a game changer, but he’s one hell of a run blocker and has some redeemable qualities as a depth player.
BOTTOM LINE
The Colts have to find another WR at some point before week one. At the moment, there is far too much pressure on Alec Pierce and Josh Downs to play a full season.
Additionally, I just find it hard to imagine the Colts replicate their level of offensive success without more depth. There’s just not enough around their existing pieces to keep defenses guessing on where the ball might go.
