There are currently three Amen Thompsons. What, you thought there were just two? I don’t mean Amen’s doppelganger, Ausar, though genetically he’s another Amen, or Amen is another Ausar. What I mean is,
there seem to be two more versions of Amen Thompson, that have nothing to do with Ausar. One is the version we wish him to be, the second is the player the Rockets need him to become, and the third is the player he already is. The player Amen is now can be considered quite possibly the best athlete overall in the NBA. Fast. Explosive, Agile. Quick. Strong. Able to do things that the top .0001 of tall athletes in the world can only dream of doing. He’s also, right now, a top defender, at 22 going on 23, something that already brings massive value.
(A question I have about defense is, what is the delta between an average big on defense, and a top one? Is it substantially less than a top perimeter defender and an average one? I strongly suspect it is, and if so, that might make Amen more valuable in a real sense than a top defensive big. Thwarting the pick and roll action and attack could well be more useful than recovering and defending on less successful pick and roll defense. Also, good perimeter defenders seem far more scarce than good defensive bigs because height isn’t the such a large part of success. Of course if the height in question is absurd for the NBA, and the athleticism is, too, that’s a different matter.)
The player than Amen is now is quite possibly the best one on one defender in the NBA. If you believe various defensive metrics, and also your eyes, Amen would have been a defensible and worthy Defensive Player of the Year last season.
One instructive game you can play in this regard, while watching the Rockets is: how is the offense going to try to avoid Amen?
There are NBA players who are always “called up” in the pick and roll, because offenses want that favorable matchup. Prime examples of this include Dame Lillard, James Harden and Jalen Brunson. This year on the Rockets that role is likely Reed Sheppard’s as it was Jalen Green’s and Fred VanVleet (with taller players) last season, if for no other reason than he’s not gigantic like the rest of the Rockets. The NBA is largely run around the high pick and roll, and you have to call someone up, unless you like your match. Somebody has to be the the worst perimeter defender on a team, even if they’re a very good defender. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a good example of this, and part of why the Thunder are so hard to attack.
No one calls Amen up in a pick, ever. He’s also a very low foul rate defender, especially given how hard he is to play against.
The fun is watching all an offense does to avoid XLNC and how little it matters, as he seems to be able to teleport to the play from nearly anywhere. That’s a very good player, and also, the current Amen.
The other Amen, of course, is an Amen Thompson who can shoot from all ranges, has a mid range game, scoops, floaters, who can make threes around 40%. This Amen hits over the bare minimum of around 70% of his free throws. He’s a player who doesn’t do all his damage off breaks, in the dunker’s spot, and off cuts and garbage collection, but from half court, from set pieces, from breaking down the defense on his own. This dream Amen is also your primary ballhandler, the initiator of the offense. He averages around 8 assists per game, to go with all the other boxscore stuffing. This Amen is a DPOY level player who is also an All Star on offense.
You’re basically dreaming of Michael Jordan for the modern game, who is also a point guard.
That is to say, temper those expectations a bit, perhaps.
That’s what we Rockets fans want from Amen Thompson. What the team needs is for him to turn into a credible 3pt threat, which means shooting around 35% from three point range. He shot 27% last season, up from 14% on very low volume. If a defense has to guard his shot, they can’t play back on the drive. This opens his offensive options remarkably.
What Amen need is free throws at about 75-80%. He’s at around 68% right now. A 90% deadeye would be nice, but isn’t necessary. (I think he can get to 80%. My observation is, if he’s nonchalant or rushes his FTs, he often misses, like a first serve in tennis. When he concentrates and slows down, he makes them at a great rate.)
The Rockets don’t necessarily need Amen to be an offensive hub, Alperen Sengun is better at that, and probably always will be. Reed Sheppard will possibly be better in that regard in this season or the next. But the Rockets need Amen to be able to bring the ball up, and keep his handle in traffic sometimes. We need him to be a secondary creator, as most of his passes work best off the threat and chaos he creates for defenses. For that, he often needs to be moving without the ball, not trying to protect his dribble. He’s a gifted passer with extraordinary vision. That doesn’t mean he’s a point guard, but if he can use his point guard fakebook sometimes, but not always, well, the Rockets need that.
The Amen we already have is an astonishingly good defender, rebounder, passer and attacker. The Amen we need has a more complete offensive game and thereby becomes an All Star. The Amen we want is, well, quite possibly, an MVP.
This season, I hope to see Amen, just turning 23 soon, largely fulfill the “needs” part of his game. That’s enough to carry this Rockets team a very long way. Try to enjoy the Amen that is, and the one that’s coming into being, and not let the dream, the vision, of the best, most perfect, most XLNT Amen spoil what he already is, and is becoming, for you. This season has the makings of a fun ride. Enjoy it, and enjoy watching possibly the most spectacular player in the whole NBA, Amen Thompson.
