Finally, time for a full scrub and some changes from Thursday’s projection. Yesterday was just as impactful for the bubble, as expected:
- The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks remain in—among the Last Four Byes—despite falling to UMass 87-83. While Miami’s metrics remain all over the place, Miami only dropped from a 7 to a 10 seed in wins above bubble (WAB), which finally seems to be getting real traction among the Selection Committee.
- Auburn’s loss to Tennessee dropped them to 17-16. The Tigers would still be a 10 seed based on averaging all their metrics, but they’re the last team in according to WAB. I really don’t think the Committee is going to take a team that’s just one game over .500 despite the “WON’T SOMEBODY THINK OF AUBURN’S SCHEDULE?!” protests I heard on one game broadcast last night. It’s probably moot anyway, as three of the Tigers closest rivals still have games to play.
- One of those is Oklahoma (19-14, 7-11 SEC), who is the last team in right now. The Sooners have won eight of 10 after dropping NINE in a row. With two SEC Tournament wins, they’re now 9-11 against conference opposition, with a game against Arkansas tonight. (Auburn finished at 8-12.)
- Oklahoma replaces SMU in the field.
Friday’s TV preview and a look at what’s at stake follows today’s full bracket and rundown. Remember to check the Blogging the Bracket feed for my insights and observations over the next three days.
NOTES:
- Changes since Thursday’s bracket are noted with (★) for new entrants, (▲) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (▼) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.
- Teams that have clinched auto bids are in ALL CAPS BOLD.
- The highest-remaining seed in an active conference tournament holds its auto bid.
(1) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Duke (ACC)
(16) Florida A&M (SWAC)/LEHIGH (Patriot)
(8) Saint Louis (A 10)
(9) Iowa
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Texas Tech
(12) HIGH POINT (Big South)
(4) Vanderbilt (13) Sam Houston (CUSA)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
▼(6) North Carolina
▼/— (11) UCF/Texas
▼(3) Michigan State
(14) WRIGHT STATE (Horizon)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Saint Mary’s
▼(10) Texas A&M
▲(2) Iowa State
(15) TENNESSEE STATE (OVC)
(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Florida (SEC)
(16) LIU (NEC)/Howard (MEAC)
▼(8) Villanova
(9) TCU
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(5) Tennessee
★(12) Akron (MAC)
(4) Virginia
(13) HOFSTRA (CAA)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(6) Louisville
—/★(11) VCU/Oklahoma
(3) Purdue
(14) TROY (Sun Belt)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
▼(7) BYU
(10) Santa Clara
(2) Houston
(15) SIENA (MAAC)
(2) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan (Big Ten)
(16) UMBC (AE)
(8) Clemson
▲(9) Ohio State
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Arkansas
(12) Yale (Ivy)
(4) Kansas
(13) Utah Valley (WAC)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(6) Miami (Fla.)
(11) Missouri
(3) Nebraska
(14) NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Utah State (MW)
▲(10) Miami (Ohio)
(2) UConn
(15) FURMAN (SoCon)
(3) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Arizona (Big 12)
(16) QUEENS (ASUN)
(8) Georgia
(9) UCLA
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(5) St. John’s (Big East)
(12) MCNEESE (Southland)
(4) Alabama
(13) NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) Wisconsin
▲(11) South Florida (American)
(3) GONZAGA (WCC)
(14) UC Irvine (Big West)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
▲(7) Kentucky
(10) NC State
(2) Illinois
(15) IDAHO (Big Sky)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: NC State, Miami (Ohio), Texas A&M, Missouri
Last Four IN: UCF, Texas, VCU, Oklahoma
First Four OUT: Indiana, SMU, New Mexico, San Diego State
Next Four Out: Auburn, Seton Hall, Florida State, Virginia Tech
On Deck: Cincinnati, Stanford, California, West Virginia
ARRIVALS (2): Akron (MAC), Oklahoma
DEPARTURES: New Mexico, SMU
Conference Breakdown
SEC (11): Florida (auto bid), Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas (First Four), Oklahoma (First Four)
Big Ten (9): Michigan (auto bid), Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA, Iowa, Ohio State
Big 12 (8): Arizona (auto bid), Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, TCU, UCF (First Four)
ACC (7): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Miami (Fla.), Clemson, NC State
Big East (3): UConn, St. John’s (auto bid), Villanova
WCC (3): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara
Atlantic 10 (2): Saint Louis (auto bid), VCU (First Four)
MAC (2): Miami (Ohio), Akron (auto bid)
23 one-bid conferences
Friday’s Viewing Guide
- All times are p.m. Eastern.
- Tip times for games marked with an asterisk (*) are approximate.
- See Conference Tournament Central for more details and a chronological schedule
No one officially entered the field yesterday—or will today—but Championship Saturday is almost here.
Multi-Bid Conference Tournament Games
ACC Semifinals
Potential bid thieves: None
(3) Miami (Fla.) (25-7, 13-5) vs. (2) Virginia (28-4, 15-3), 7 (ESPN2)
(5) Clemson (24-9, 12-6) vs. (1) Duke (30-2, 17-1), 9:30* (ESPN2)
With no Duke-UNC semifinal, these games got kicked to ESPN2. Everyone here is playing for seeding, with the Blue Devils trying to stay No. 1 overall, the Cavaliers looking to move up to a 3 seed, and Hurricanes and Tigers trying to get or stay out of an 8/9 game.
Big 12 Semifinals
Potential bid thieves: None
(5) Iowa State (27-6, 12-6) vs. (1) Arizona (30-2, 16-2), 7 (ESPN)
(3) Kansas (23-9, 12-6) vs. (2) Houston (27-5, 14-4), 9:30* (ESPN)
And I think you can see why these games were slotted on ESPN. The Wildcats still have a shot at the No. 1 overall seed, but they’ll need help in the form of Duke and Michigan losses. The Cyclones will look to stick on the 2 line with a win over a team they lost to in Tucson to wrap up the final Big Monday of the regular season.
The Cougars are very much alive for the No. 1 seed in the South, and the potential of two games at the Toyota Center downtown. They can’t lose to a Jayhawk team that’s trying to hang on to a 4 seed.
Big East Semifinals
Potential bid thieves: Georgetown, Seton Hall
(4) Seton Hall (21-11, 10-10) vs. (1) St. John’s (26-6, 18-2), 5:30 (Fox)
(11) Georgetown (16-17, 6-14) vs. (2) UConn (28-4, 17-3), 8* (FS1)
Fans of bubble teams will be pulling hard for the Red Storm and Huskies. Even though the Pirates are near the Cut Line, they really need the auto bid, and of course, the Hoyas aren’t getting in without it. St. John’s can get closer to the 4 line with a win, while the Huskies are aiming to stay in the hunt for the final No. 1 seed.
Note that the second game was moved from “Bart Simpson Fox” (h/t Rob Stone) to FS1 because “Bob’s Burgers Fox” will have the U.S.-Canada World Baseball Classic quarterfinal.
Mountain West Semifinals
Potential bid thieves: Everyone but Utah State
(5) Nevada (22-11, 12-8) vs. (1) Utah State (26-6, 15-5), 9:30 (CBSSN)
(3) New Mexico (23-9, 13-7) vs. (2) San Diego State (21-10, 14-6), 12 a.m.* (CBSSN)
The Wolf Pack meet the Aggies and will guarantee a two-bid Mountain West with a win. The winner of the second semifinal, a rubber match between the Lobos and Aztecs, would be the favorite to take that from Nevada.
Atlantic 10 Quarterfinals
Potential bid thieves: Everyone but Saint Louis.
(9) George Washington (18-14, 8-10) vs. (1) Saint Louis (27-4, 15-3), 11:30 (USA)
(13) St. Bonaventure (17-16, 4-14) vs. (4) Dayton (21-10, 12-6), 2* (USA)
(7) Duquesne (18-14, 9-9) vs. (2) VCU (24-7, 15-3), 5 (USA)
(6) Davidson (20-12, 10-8) vs. (3) Saint Joseph’s (21-10, 13-5), 7:30* (USA)
In the opener, the Billikens really need to not give the Committee reason to leave them out, as they’re heading into the postseason having gone 3-3 in their last six games. The Rams (the only ones left in Pittsburgh) also need to take care of business against the hometown Dukes to not find themselves on the wrong side of the Cut Line.
Big Ten Quarterfinals
Potential bid thieves: None
(8) Ohio State (21-11, 12-8) vs. (1) Michigan (29-2, 19-1), 12 (BTN)
(5) Wisconsin (23-9, 14-6) vs. (4) Illinois (24-7, 15-5), 2:30* (BTN)
(7) Purdue (24-8, 13-7) vs. (2) Nebraska (26-5, 15-5), 6:30 (BTN)
(6) UCLA (22-10, 13-7) vs. (3) Michigan State (25-6, 15-5), 9* (BTN)
All four higher seeds advanced yesterday, so there will be no bid thief in the Big Ten. In fact, the Buckeyes shored up their position by knocking out Iowa. No fewer than five of these teams rank among the top 12 in the bracket, though the Spartans dropped from a 2 to a 3 after Iowa State’s two Big 12 Tournament wins.
Keep an eye on the Badgers, who could make a late charge for the 5 or even 4 lines if they continue to win.
SEC Quarterfinals
Potential bid thieves: Oklahoma, Ole Miss
(9) Kentucky (21-12, 10-8) vs. (1) Florida (25-6, 16-2), 12:30 (ESPN)
(5) Tennessee (22-10, 11-7) vs. (4) Vanderbilt (24-7, 11-7), 3* (ESPN)
(15) Ole Miss (14-19, 4-14) vs. (2) Alabama (23-8, 13-5), 7 (SECN)
(11) Oklahoma (19-14, 7-11) vs. (3) Arkansas (23-8, 13-5), 9:30* (SECN)
Thursday’s results in Nashville were a mixed bag for bubble teams. Auburn lost, but Oklahoma won. Ole Miss continued a surprising run by holding off Georgia’s late push, meaning the Rebels lurk as a potential bid thief. The Sooners really need to beat the Razorbacks to feel safer—but the job wouldn’t necessarily be done.
The top five seeds are all fighting for positioning in or near the top four seed lines. The Gators cannot lose to the Wildcats if they want to remain a No. 1 seed, particularly with UConn and Houston also in action. Vandy is trying to hang on to the final spot on the 4 line—Bama is the top 4 seed, but a loss to the Rebels would change that. The Hogs and Vols will also try to make a late push to jump from 5s to 4s.
Single-Bid Conference Tournament Action
Ivy Madness will be the final tournament to start, tomorrow.
American Quarterfinals
(5) Charlotte (16-16, 9-9) vs. (4) UAB (20-11, 11-7), 1 (ESPN2)
(6) North Texas (19-13, 9-9) vs. (3) Tulsa (25-6, 13-5), 3:30* (ESPN2)
It’s been chalk so far in Birmingham, with the top two seeds—South Florida and Wichita State—awaiting today’s winners in tomorrow’s semifinals.
Big West Semifinals
(4) CSUN (20-12, 12-8) vs. (1) UC Irvine (22-10, 15-5), 9 (ESPN+ ($))
(3) Cal State Fullerton (18-15, 12-8) vs. (2) Hawai’i (22-8, 14-6), 11:30* (ESPN2)
The Matadors knocked out last year’s champ, UC San Diego, last night. Their reward? A game against last season’s runner-up in the Anteaters. In the nightcap, the Rainbow Warriors will look to get one step closer to claiming one last Big West title on their way to the Mountain West.
Conference USA Semifinals
(9) Missouri State (16-17, 8-12) vs. (4) Louisiana Tech (19-13, 11-9), 12:30 (CBSSN)
(6) Kennesaw State (19-13, 10-10) vs. (2) Sam Houston (22-10, 13-7), 3* (CBSSN)
This has been one of the most entertaining tournaments this week, with some significant upsets and hard fought contests. However, TV means both of last night’s winners—the Bulldogs and Owls—didn’t get much rest heading into this afternoon’s games.
MAC Semifinals
(8) UMass (17-15, 7-11) vs. (4) Toledo (18-14, 11-7), 5 (CBSSN)
(3) Kent State (24-8, 14-4) vs. (2) Akron (27-5, 11-1), 7:30* (CBSSN)
The Zips are the favorites now, but they’ll need to defeat their neighbors to advance. In the earlier game, the Rockets will look to get one win closer to breaking their long NCAA drought (1980), while the Minutemen want to show that yesterday’s win over Miami was no fluke.
MEAC Semifinals
(5) South Carolina State (10-21, 7-7) vs. (1) Howard (21-10, 11-3), 6 (ESPN+ ($))
(7) Delaware State (8-22, 2-12) vs. (3) North Carolina Central (13-17, 8-6), 8:30* (ESPN+ ($))
The three games so far have been decided by a total 18 points with two overtimes. If you want entertaining basketball, take a look at what’s going on at the Norfolk Scope.
SWAC Semifinals
(8) Prairie View A&M (16-17, 9-9) vs. (5) Alabama A&M (18-14, 10-8), 2 (ESPN+ ($))
(3) Southern (16-16, 11-7) vs. (2) Florida A&M (15-15, 11-7), 8:30 (ESPN+ ($))
The two HBCU conferences have been giving us absolute bangers that few people are paying attention to. While the first round in Atlanta featured a couple of blowouts, the only game decided by double digits since was FAMU’s win over Jackson State on Wednesday. Yesterday’s quarterfinal doubleheader saw the Bulldogs beat Texas Southern by 11—after OT—and the Jaguars top Arkansas-Pine Bluff by just three.
WAC Semifinals
(4) UT Arlington (18-13, 9-9) vs. (1) Utah Valley (24-7, 14-4), 9 (ESPN+ ($))
(3) Utah Tech (19-14, 11-7) vs. (2) California Baptist (23-8, 13-5), 11:30* (ESPN+ ($))
Both of Thursday night’s quarterfinals were decided by six points. Of the four teams remaining, only the fourth-seeded Mavericks have ever made the NCAA Tournament at the D1 level.
