Both Washington and Illinois have a chance to go over .500 in B1G conference play with a win this Saturday. Let’s look at the offense that the Fighting Illini will bring to Seattle:
The Numbers
Points per game: 34
QB sacked percentage: 10.26% (#126)
Percentage of yards from runs: 27.74% (#124)
Rushing play percentage: 50.88%
Points per play: .469 (#32)
Red zone attempts per game: 4.2 (#34)
Passing yards per game:
270 (#25)Key Players
Illinois is quarterbacked by fifth year senior and three year starter Luke Altmyer. He transferred
from Ole Miss between the 2022 and 2023 seasons, and has improved each year as a starter. He’s 6-2 and just 205 pounds, with a decent arm. What makes him an effective quarterback is he’s able to maximize every ounce of his ability, and play with smarts and toughness. He’s also developed a reputation as a late game clutch player, having lead numerous game winning fourth quarter/OT scoring drives. He’s a really gutsy player who won’t be intimidated by the noise and environment at Husky Stadium. He doesn’t turn it over, stays in the pocket, and (usually) gets the ball out quickly. His numbers so far this year: 1,821 yards (9.5 YPA), 13 touchdowns, 1 interception, completing 72%. For as good as he’s been this season, he’s been sacked a whopping 23 times. His pocket awareness could improve, and at just 205 pounds he doesn’t absorb contact and stay upright like some other quarterbacks. That, and offensive line issues, gets you one of the worst sack rates per drop back in CFB.
At running back, the Illini have the absolutely mammoth Kaden Feagin, who is 6-3 and weighs in at 250 pounds. As you might expect, he’s a physical runner who will wear down defenses between the tackles. While he doesn’t have the lateral explosion of someone like Jonah Coleman, he has a quicker first step than you would expect for someone his size, and enough top end speed to be a legit big play threat when he reaches the second level. Like the Illinois run game in general this season, he’s been solid with 85 carries, 338 yards (4.0 YPC) and 5 touchdowns. He can also catch passes out of the backfield and took a swing pass 64 yards to the house already this season.
The main receiver for Altmyer is the 5-11 senior Hank Beatty, who far and away leads the team in catches (39) and yards (617). He mostly lines up in the slot and catches a ton of quick slants. He’s got some wiggle to his game with nine forced missed tackles this season (top 10 in conference) and 328 yards after the catch, which is second among B1G receivers with at least 25 targets. WR2 Collin Dixon is the relative deep threat (ADOT 13.5 yards compared to Beatty’s 8.4), but has about half the overall receptions (22) and yards (357) as Beatty.
Scheme & Tendencies
They run a lot of RPOs, despite Altmyer not running too much, so the threat is that he will pull the ball out and pass. That said, he did score a 12-yard rushing touchdown against USC on an RPO read, so it is something Washington can’t completely ignore. Throwing it, he loves to exploit the middle of the field and the pass game is certainly the strength of this offense. They aren’t about generating big chunk plays (though I’m sure they’d like to more), but about moving the chains, avoiding turnovers, and being efficient.
Head coach Brett Bielema wants to run a tough, no-nonsense power rushing attack like he had at Wisconsin (not so much at Arkansas, a really challenging SEC job). But, 67th in power success rate and 23rd in stuff rate doesn’t paint a pretty picture for this offensive line in terms of rushing, which averages just over 100 yards per game.
Final Thoughts
Washington simply has to create some level of havoc on defense to keep Illinois from getting into a rhythm. They are one of the best teams in the country at avoiding third downs, but they only convert 36% of them. While this Illinois offense doesn’t make a ton of mistakes, the sack numbers should have Washington DC Ryan Walters (who coordinated some of the best defenses in the country at Illinois) feeling like he can generate some pressure on defense, despite that being a challenge this season. This Husky defense has not allowed more than 24 points in a game this season and for that to continue, Washington needs to force Illinois into tough 3rd and long situations where they aren’t comfortable.
