Big Ten Football Week 4 Picks, Predictions, Previews

This website is a funny thing.

It started because two law school friends wanted a place to shit-talk one another about the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry. Then they decided they wanted to shit-talk about the Big Ten in its entirety and became, by their own turn of phrase, a “smoking lounge” for the Big Ten.

And, over time, this place metastasized to be more professors than lawyers, more pivots to video than you can shake a stick at. There have been friendships and there are people I no longer talk to,

for reasons routine, good, and bad.

It’s in that vein: today I get to see my dear friend and colleague BigRedTwice. So I hope y’all have a great day, because we’re going to be gossiping about how much you suck.

(Just kidding, I hate talking about this site in real life.)

About Last Week

Thoughts:

misdreavus and last year’s champ, MNWildcat lead the way going 6-3 against the spread this week. I’m pretty sure a 2:1 ratio of wins to losses is pretty good.
BRT killed it this week picking straight up. The only “writer” to get all 9 correct.
Thanks to larry31 for bouncing me out of the cellar. You’re a scholar and a gentleman, larry.

The Picks

All times CDT, because reasons.

Friday, September 19

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights

7PM | FOX | Iowa -2.5 | O/U 45.5
Straight Up: Iowa 6-3
Against the Spread: Iowa 6-3

Thumpasaurus: -2.5?! Is this real? Iowa will cover, even if it’s not by much. I have never been a believer in 8K at QB. But then again…the last Rutgers quarterback to defeat Iowa was Art Sitkowski. I don’t know, I somehow don’t think rutger gets this one. Iowa will have under 100 assing yards.

BRT: I admit to being mildly intrigued by this. Kirk & Co. have been having themselves quite the East Coast Tour this season, but ‘Gers is finally better than UMass, so this will be a step up for the Hawkeyes. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rutgers won (and I am cheering for them), but this just feels like the kind of game that Iowa finds a way to win in a completely unsatisfying manner.

Larry31: Going with tradition on this one. Toothy Birds to cover.

Buffkomodo: Until proven otherwise, Rutgers cannot be trusted. Iowa benefits by being a sturdy, 8-4 level team. Give me Iowa.

RUReady4Brazil: This is a 50-50 toss up and I’m annoyed UCLA kicked me out of the survivor pool so I couldn’t take Iowa as my emotional hedge pick. The Rutgers defense is bad, perhaps so bad they can’t even stop Iowa. As a Scarlet Knights fan, my heart says to pick Rutgers because there’s a better chance they can hit a few big passes and put up points easier than Iowa having to run 10 play drives. If you want more of my commentary, find it on podcasts The Scarlet Faithful (Rutgers) and Play the Fight Song (Iowa). If Rutgers wins, this is their second biggest win since joining the Big Ten (2014 Brady Hoke Michigan) surpassing the Friday Night Week 4 blackout against Washington in this exact same spot a year ago. If I wasn’t a Scarlet fan, I’d be with most everybody else as in to trust Iowa more than Rutgers until proven otherwise.

RockyMtnBlue: How many times have we looked at Rutgers heading to a B10W stadium saying “they’ve got a shot!”. They never have a shot. One thing the B10W does is PREPARE! Iowa 17-10

MNW: Just for the record, back when I was the one doing all these—thank you, RMB, you are an absolute saint—you assholes would’ve all middled a spread like this. Dicks. Iowa, 18-9.

Saturday, September 20

Maryland Terrapins @ Wisconsin Badgers

11AM | NBC / Peacock | Wisconsin -6.5 | O/U 45.5
Straight Up: Wisconsin 5-4
Against the Spread: Wisconsin 5-4

Thumpasaurus: What month is it? That’s right. Septemberland reigns supreme. Wisconsin still hasn’t convinced me they won’t suck. Look, I know it’s Bama but they recently had a news story about the Powerball jackpot where locals were saying they’d buy out Kalen DeBoer if they won it. If this game took place in October I’d feel differently, but this is how you get Maryland’s hopes up.

BRT: The only reason I took Wisconsin in this one is that it’s in Madison. I’m not sure how long that fanbase will continue to give Fickell the time of day, but if they decide to muster up the energy, it’s a tough place to play, and Maryland feels like the kind of team that would be vulnerable to a tough road environment.

RUReady4Brazil: This is probably the second most intriguing game outside of Rutgers-Iowa because it could go in any number of ways. Whichever coach loses better avoid a talespin real quick or they will join the ranks of Foster and Pry.

Larry31: First, to comment on RUReady from above. Locks isn’t going anywhere this year. The new AD, Jim Smith, has determined that Locks was asked to do things far and beyond the scope of normal coaching responsibilities, which most likely affected his on-field responsibilities. They are giving him this year to see how he performs under normal circumstances.

I was going to pick Maryland to win just to be the contrarian but then saw two others had already picked Maryland to win. Like the Iowas-Rutgers game, I will go with tradition. Maryland has never beaten Wisconsin in football as a member of the B1G. Show me you can do it, Maryland, then I’ll consider Picking Maryland. Until then, it’s Wisconsin to win Also, Maryland has a ton of newbies that have never played in front of a loud energized hostile crowd. Whisky covers.

Buffkomodo: Maryland because I fear the cogs of fate are moving to remove Luke Fickell from power sooner than later.

RockyMtnBlue: See my “analysis” of the Iowa/Rutgers game above. Same principle applies to Maryland. Wisconsin 27-17

MNW: Guess I’m gonna tie it all up here. Manifesting, again, because (1) I haven’t seen a Maryland game all year and don’t intend to start now, but (2) wisconsin willingly started the season with a transfer quarterback from Maryland, and if that doesn’t say “We’re desperate and shitty,” I don’t know what does. Terps, 24-21.

Oregon State Beavers @ (6) Oregon Ducks

2PM | BTN | Oregon -34.5 | O/U 55.5
Straight Up: Oregon 9-0
Against the Spread: Oregon 7-2

Thumpasaurus: Conference realignment dealt a lethal blow to Oregon State and Washington State. These programs have officially been relegated. They’re the first to lose “Power” status since the term became popular. They won’t be the last. Behold your future and tremble, UCLA.

BRT: Well, this just doesn’t seem like it’s going to work out very well for Oregon State.

RUReady4Brazil: Oregon is on a revenge tour that should get them to the conference title game. Oregon State is the next victim.

Larry31: In-state rivalry games are strange chicken. 35 points is a lot. Ducks win. Beavers cover.

Buffkomodo: Oregon because Oregon State is kinda not great.

RockyMtnBlue: Oregon scores a billion points again. Wake me up when they play someone. Oregon 42-3

MNW: Really pisses me off that Northwestern didn’t just run the ball down the Ducks’ throats—look in the mirror and feel shame, Zach Lujan.

Ducks come out angry and name their score. Oregon, 45-10.

*east of the pacific time zone

Purdue Boilermakers @ (24) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

2:30PM | NBC / Peacock | Notre Dame -27.5 | O/U 51.5
Straight Up: Notre Dame 9-0
Against the Spread: Notre Dame 5-4

Thumpasaurus: Sometimes the whole season passes and early results never end up making sense in the context of what happened over the course of the year. Nevertheless, I’m still going to search for absolute meaning. It’s hard for me to fully wrap my head around what the Ryan Walters Boilermakers were really like since they were a good football team when and only when they played Illinois, but my understanding is that Purdue seems to have a higher floor relative to their talent. I still think Notre Dame is substantially better than USC.

BRT: Purdue exceeded expectations last week, and I’m happy for them. I don’t know that they’ve got a Harbor in them this week, but it would certainly be a funny time for them to pull it off. In my rational mind though, I think Notre Dame is desperate to get off the schneid and Purdue is left a bit worse for it.

RUReady4Brazil: RU fans will be tuning in to see the looks on Chris Ash’s face and trying to see if he can hold on for another week. Hopefully they get a good scouting report on the Boilers who will be far from the cakewalk many were expecting might come in a month.

Larry31: Are the pompous self-righteous Irish really 4 TDs better than Purdue? Not convinced. ND wins. Purdue covers.

Buffkomodo: Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois last year at home. However, ND is probably pretty pissed off and realizes to make the CFP they need to eject Purdue into the sun in this one. Notre Dame rolls with a well timed get right game.

RockyMtnBlue: If there was a benevolent God, we would be in for the rare Purdue Harbor that all 18 fan bases can get behind. (Yes, Indiana fans, you can. Suck it up.) But then if there was a benevolent God, lots of things would look different right now. Still, Purdue is showing signs of life so I like them to cover. But sadly not by much. Notre Dame 31-14.

MNW: God how GREAT would it be if Notre Dame started 0-3 with a traveling Harbor?

Unfortunately, it’ll be Irish, 31-14.

(21) Michigan Wolverines @ Nebraska Cornhuskers

2:30PM | CBS / Paramount+ | Michigan -2 | O/U 44.5
Straight Up: Nebraska 5-4
Against the Spread: Nebraska 5-4

Thumpasaurus: With Sherrone still suspended, Michigan can do enough to take this one.

BRT: Well, I’m more interested in this one than I have been since we’ve joined the conference, which is progress, I think. Nebraska could win this one, but I’m not betting on them in games like this until they actually prove to me that they can. Trust is earned, and no one has harmed fans’ trust more than the Huskers of the 2020s. And 2010s. It’s been a while.

RUReady4Brazil: This is a marketing dream for whatever network we need to tune into to watch it. Two programs that still have a chance to make noise in an early season tilt? If Michigan gets good QB play, they run away with this. If not, things could get interesting.

Larry31: Best game of the week. If this game was at Michigan, I’d go with the Cheetahs. But, it’s at Nebraska. Michigan’s $20 million QB still has not impressed me, so I am going with the Huskers to win. However, equally likely, Nebraska loses this game on the last possession, whoever has the ball, in the most painfully gut-punching Nebraska way imaginable. I don’t even know what that would be, but we may find out!.

Buffkomodo: Nebraska because I love chaos and Matt Rhule.

RockyMtnBlue: Michigan has played the SP+ #116, #7, and #132 teams. We know they can’t play with the big boys, and we know they’re better than the doormats. So we know nothing. On the other side, I’m on team Rhule and I think Nebby is a solid team, maybe top 25. Oh yeah, and their building is one of those places that’s kinda unfun to visit. I will say this: bet the over. Nebraska 31-21.

MNW: Y’know what? Rhule’s all right in my book. And I haven’t heard much kvetching about that Raiola cat. Does that mean he’s doing OK? Or dead? Is it dead? oh no Huskers, 21-17.

(9) Illinois Fighting Illini @ (19) Indiana Hoosiers

6:30PM | NBC | Indiana -4.5 | O/U 55.5
Straight Up: Indiana 5-4
Against the Spread: Illinois 5-4

Thumpasaurus: Every first half I’ve watched this year of Illinois football has made me scream about the offensive line. I don’t quite know why, but they are not doing a very good job to start each game. They weren’t getting great push against Western Illinois, and they struggled to hold the pocket against Western Michigan. Duke blitzed a lot and Illinois wasn’t ready for it. If they come out sluggish again, they could face a 14-0 deficit early and that’s not a game script Illinois really has an offense for. The front 7 for the Illini has looked good in a lot of spots but I was very concerned by certain things I saw out of the defense against Duke. Although Illinois has won all three games by 4+ scores, there are things on tape that are exploitable and I think Indiana has the tools to exploit them. The Illini absolutely can win this game, but they won’t unless they play their best game of the season.

BRT: Time was, not too long ago, that this would be the Sicko Matchup of the Week. I know we’ve beat the horse bloody over how crazy it is that this is a Top 20 matchup, but for those of us who have spent years coming up with superlatives for how terrible these two teams are week in and week out for the past decade, it really is unbelievable. I’m taking Indiana, but I really have no idea. I don’t think I’ll be able to watch this one, and I’m peeved. I hope the Dreams Do Come True! Bowl lives up to the hype.

RUReady4Brazil: This is a huge game in that two ranked teams meet up for that inside track to the dark horse playoff spot Indiana claimed a year ago. As BRT mentions, I can’t really believe this is real life.

Larry31: Remember that Seinfeld episode in which Elaine’s friend-worlds collide? In Bizarro world her friends are Kevin [Opposite Jerry], Gene [Opposite George], and Feldman [Opposite Kramer] Her Bizarro World friends are reliable and considerate. This is the Bizarro World Bowl in which two former suck-ass teams play for contention in the CFP. Illinois to win and cover. Bizarro Larry31 thinks Illinois is underrated. When are Rutgers and Maryland going to play in the Bizarro World Bowl?

Buffkomodo: What I can’t believe is real life is that Indiana is 1 of 2 ranked opponents on Illinois schedule. That explains the whole “they don’t care about us like we care about them” that’s been going on this week. Whats even funnier is that if Illinois wins, Indiana may drop out of the top 25, meaning they’d have 1 team on their schedule in the top 25. Anyway….

While this game is bigger for Illinois, Cignetti has a way about making every game important. I think that the Hoosiers come out and play well, get a lead, and fend off an Illinois rally to hold on by 7.

RockyMtnBlue: Remember when Illinutgers was the Sickos highlight game of the year, and Indiana was Team Chaos? Those were the days. Now this is a top 20 matchup with fucking playoff implications. The world is going to hell. They say home field is worth about 3 points in college football. So give me that. Indiana 31-28

MNW: I too have middled this game. Can’t wait for Illinois to lose this, Indiana to lose to something like Purdue, and neither one to make the playoff. Hoosiers, 27-24.

Washington Huskies @ Washington State Cougars

6:30PM | CBS | Washington -20.5 | O/U 52.5
Straight Up: Washington 9-0
Against the Spread: Washington 6-3

Thumpasaurus: See my comments on the Oregon – Oregon State game, which I hesitate to even call the Civil War because the playing field was tilted heavily in Oregon’s favor by political intrigue. I always liked both Wazzu and Oregon State because I have some family ties to Oregon State and occasionally romanticize the Middle Of Nowhere (i.e. Pullman, WA) and it’s genuinely sad to see what’s happened to these teams that were successful in the last five years.

RUReady4Brazil: Washington State won this matchup last year, but other than hoping the Huskies forgot how to play football during their early bye, probably a different result this time around.

BRT: Well, this just doesn’t seem like it’s going to work out very well for Washington State.

Larry31: I just don’t trust in-state rivalries with a 3 TD spread, especially when the underdog is at home. U-Dub to win. Cougars to cover.

Buffkomodo: Going from a top 25 matchup to this is…depressing…Washington.

RockyMtnBlue: Larry31’s analysis has the smell of wisdom on it. But I don’t like Washington, and I do kinda like the Cougars so the Wazzu is fucked.. Washington 38-14

MNW: It’s 2:15am as I’m doing this, and hallucinated seeing the phrase “got that stink on em” above. I think it’s time to go to bed. Huskies, 35-14.

Michigan State Spartans @ (25) Southern Cal Trojans

10PM | FOX | USC -15,5 | O/U 55.5
Straight Up: USC 9-0
Against the Spread: USC 6-3

Thumpasaurus: I still don’t believe USC is all that good, but between the West Coast trip, late start time and abysmal showing for MSU’s defense through three games I can’t halp but believe USC drops bombs on their moms.

RUReady4Brazil: As Thump mentions, the red carpet stays out for USC in this one. The Spartans should be better later in the season but like a few other defenses on this list, any competent offense will shred them right now.

BRT: MSU has been mildly interesting to watch this year, but given how Minnesota turned into a pumpkin once it got too late on the West Coast last week, I have fears that the Spartans will be similarly squashed. (Fall puns, behold.)

Larry31: I think the 3 time zone factor is more of a thing than September Maryland. Unlike Greek mythology, the Trojans kick the Spartans asses. USC to win and cover.

Buffkomodo: Speaking of depressing…USC.

RockyMtnBlue: West coast night games and “USC is good” and all that, but I think MSU is becoming disturbingly non-shitty. This is an even worse development than the whole Indiana/Illinois thing. USC 38-28

MNW: zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz 38-25, trojans zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz