Today we take a look ahead. All off-season, we’ve talked about the Mountain West needing to be more successful. What exactly will that look like in 2025? We will dive into that. Last year was a major success for the conference, as outlined in our review article from January. Anyway, here is what we think will make for a successful MW season. We used pretty much the same categories as last year, but switched up the standards in each.
Wins Against Power 5 Teams
This year, the Mountain West has 16 games in their non-conference
slate against teams from Power 4 conferences, which is four less than last year. Some of these games are just a bit one-sided on paper, but never say never in the college football world. Other games look winnable or competitive. However, the conference desperately needs to reverse recent trends and win more than only a couple of these games.
After a disappointing showing against Power teams the past three years, it’s hard to see that much improvement in 2025. However, if they can manage three wins out of sixteen games, or 18.75%, it will allow them to slowly regain the momentum they once had and potentially get some national attention for their success. It’s not much, but it’s a start.
Some games that could result in wins against P5 teams:
Colorado State vs Washington
Fresno State vs Kansas
Hawaii vs Stanford
Hawaii vs Arizona
San Diego State vs Cal
San Jose State vs Stanford
UNLV vs UCLA
Making a Statement in OOC Games
Overall, it is important that the Mountain West showcase its talent against other teams in non-conference play. Obviously, the P5 games are a significant part of this, but practically, every game is taken into account. A conference having a strong first month playing other conferences (or independents) shapes people’s perception about a conference, good or bad, accurate or not. While the Mountain West has sometimes demonstrated the ability to beat teams in power conferences, it has also lost some games against lesser G5 or FCS teams. This makes it hard to place the conference in terms of prestige.
Looking at the out-of-conference schedule for the twelve Mountain West teams, it is unrealistic to expect them to win every game. However, to be successful, they should win roughly 58% of their non-conference games. The breakdown should generally look like this:
- Against P5 teams: 3-13 (18.75%)
- Against the PAC2: 2-1 (66.67%)
- Against other G5 teams: 10-5 (66.67%)
- Against FCS teams: 13-1 (92.86%)
- Total: 28-20 (58.33%)
Ranked Teams
Last year, the Mountain West was a top-heavy conference, with Boise State ranked most of the season and UNLV in and out of the rankings all season as well. The conference needs to do so again in 2025 with at least one team, and hopefully multiple teams. For the Mountain West, having a ranked team or two helps their prestige and means a team is having a successful season, which means the conference is successful. Boise State is starting the season ranked and it will be important for them to continue that throughout the season.
Bowl Eligible Teams
Last season, the Mountain West produced five bowl teams, which was a step back from the previous season’s seven teams.In this day and age, making a bowl basically means you were an above-average team over the course of the year, and the MW should strive to have as many above-average or better teams at the end of the year as possible. In order to be successful, the conference will need to get back to at least six bowl-eligible teams at the end of the regular season once again. Having half of the conference make a bowl game would mean the top teams took care of business and a few teams surprised or over-achieved to raise the conference clout.
Bowl Wins
Of course, getting to a bowl game isn’t enough on its own. It’s nice, but most people remember who won and who lost. The Mountain West isn’t too many years removed from having a strong showing during bowl season. However, that wasn’t the case the last three seasons, going under .500 in all of them and only notching one lone win in 2024. For the conference to be considered successful in bowl season, they must be above .500 once again. That means reaching the four-win mark during bowl season (going 4-2), with at least one of those wins coming against a power-four team.
National Storylines
It is important for the conference to produce topics and storylines that garner national attention in order to remain relevant. Last year, it was Ashton Jeanty putting up historic numbers, resulting in a second-place finish in the Heisman voting while winning the Maxwell and Doak Walker awards. It would be great for the conference to continue getting national attention. Here are some potential storylines that could (not saying will, but could) be played up this season:
- One of the teams (potentially Boise State, San Jose State, or possibly UNLV) being ranked, or earning the G5 bid in the College Football Playoff,
- A player being a finalist for a national award. There aren’t as many options in the preseason as last year, but it’s probably worth keeping an eye on guys like Matt Lauter or Pofele Ashlock, or perhaps someone who is currently under the radar.
- An unheralded team like Nevada or New Mexico pulling off a big upset at some point during the season.
Playing in the College Football Playoff
Conferences are often judged based on the top teams. The SEC is a good example of this some seasons. Fair or not, that’s usually how it goes.
The Mountain West was in the same boat last year, with Boise State and UNLV leading the way as both were ranked for much of the 2024 season. The Broncos, of course, ended up going to the College Football Playoff.
Can they or another team make it two years in a row for the Mountain West? Boise State is the likely front-runner in college football once again. Additionally, San Jose State has the talent and a favorable schedule to make a run, and UNLV is a dark horse candidate if everything falls into place for them.
Personal Predictions:
I figured this would be as good of a spot as any to go on record with some predictions. Note that all of these are just personal opinions and not hating or favoring any one team. I’d be happy to be wrong about some of these. This is merely what I think will happen. In January, when we revisit this entire post, I’ll own up to everything I got right or wrong.
- After a lot of coaching turnover the past two seasons, this year should be quieter. I expect no more than two coaching openings, with only one of those due to a firing.
- New Mexico will finish last in the conference, while Nevada wins more than three games.
- Six teams will make a bowl game this year. I think five of them will be Air Force, Boise State, Fresno State, San Jose State, and UNLV. Colorado State and Hawaii will battle it out for the last spot, while the other falls just short.
- I expect two 10-win teams this season. I think Boise State has the best shot, and San Jose State will be the other team.
- There will be one undefeated team in conference play this season.
- The Mountain West championship game will feature Boise State and San Jose State.
- Air Force will not win the Commander in Chief Trophy this season, but will win one of those games after losing both in 2024.
- The Falcons will bounce back and lead the conference in team rushing yards per game. The Spartans will do the same for passing yards per game.
- No MW player will be a national award finalist this season.
- None of the players who won the preseason awards will get those awards at the end of the season.
These are some of the factors that could make or break the 2025 Mountain West football season in terms of success. What are some other factors that weren’t listed here? What needs to happen for you to consider the season a successful one for the Mountain West Conference?
