The National League side of the bracket has had little fanfare compared to the American League side over the last week or so, thanks in large part to most of the field being fairly locked in already. The Brewers and Phillies ended up running away with their divisions and the byes into the NLDS, the Dodgers held off the Padres for their 12th division title in 13 years while San Diego easily slid into a Wild Card spot alongside the Cubs, and the Mets… wait a minute. The third and final Wild Card was
in New York’s hands for most of the season, thanks to their 45-24 start that at one point led the league, but a second half collapse that felt a lot more like a long, gradual descent opened the door for the fringes of the NL field to overtake them. In the end, only one team was up for the challenge.
2025 record: 83-79
Manager: Terry Francona
Top hitter by fWAR: Elly De La Cruz (4.3)
Top pitcher by fWAR: Andrew Abbott (3.9)
The Reds did just enough to overtake the Mets down the stretch, completing a 14-11 September that continued a seesaw trend of going just above or just below .500 every month. They were the definition of average, with no particular strength to point to other than that they didn’t rock the boat under the veteran Francona’s steady leadership. To that point, the Reds are going to enter October as the only team in MLB history without featuring any regular starter with a .270 batting average or 25 or more homers, or a pitcher with 15 or more wins or 200 strikeouts. Some of these are antiquated stats, to be sure, but to not reach any of those marks and still have a shot speaks to an impressive collective effort.
That’s not to say that they don’t have their stars, namely Elly De La Cruz. The 23-year-old shortstop took a step back in 2025, dropping from a 119 wRC+ to a 108 mark, but his defense declined more harshly from a 14 0AA to -3 and his DRS dropping from -2 to -5. He also wasn’t nearly as aggressive on the basepaths, swiping 37 bags compared to 67 last year, though he did get caught only eight times as opposed to the 16 times he was thrown out in 2024.
So, if their rising star didn’t take a step forward to lead the charge into the postseason, how did the Reds end up here? TJ Friedl rebounding to an above-average starter helped, as he collected a career-high 82 runs scored and walked at a career-high 11.8 percent rate. Their reinforcements at the deadline were the big push though, even if they were mostly bargain bin deals. Ke’Bryan Hayes was the main get from the Pirates, and he turned his infamously terrible bat around to modestly bad territory, going from a 57 wRC+ in Pittsburgh to an 82 mark in Cincinnati. The more surprising find was Miguel Andujar, the former Yankee third baseman who had been playing a bit part with the Athletics until getting traded over to the Reds. Andujar only played in 34 games with Cincinnati down the stretch, but he lit it up with a .359/.400/.544 triple slash earning him a top-10 spot on the Reds’ position player fWAR leaderboard despite how little he got on the field.
On the pitching side, Hunter Greene will be their Game 1 starter and their most promising young starter. He missed a decent chunk of time this year with a right groin strain, sitting out all of June and July before returning in the middle of August, but he still compiled 2.9 fWAR in 107.2 innings of work posting a 2.76 ERA. Andrew Abbott stepped up in his absence, pitching a career-high 166.1 innings and earning a 2.87 ERA in the process, likely earning the start in Game 2 behind Greene. Brady Singer has had a decent season in his first year outside of Kansas City, logging a 4.03 ERA and 2.9 fWAR, while Nick Lodolo has collected 2.8 fWAR and a 3.33 ERA — both pitched on Sunday, with Singer starting before Lodolo relieved him, so either could start a potential Game 3. Emilio Pagan heads their bullpen this year, picking up 32 saves in 38 tries with a 2.88 ERA in 68.2 innings, and Tony Santillan follows him with a 2.44 ERA IN 73.2 innings as the main setup man.
All together, the Reds have a decent pitching staff with a so-so offense supporting it, but they face the biggest challenge of their year going head-to-head with the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will earn Cy Young votes for his excellent 2025, and he’s the Game 2 starter behind Blake Snell. Take a game off of one of them, and they’ll have to face Shohei Ohtani in a do-or-die Game 3. The Reds aren’t expected to make it past them, but to be fair, they weren’t expected to be here at all. Cincinnati is playing with house money, and it’ll be interesting to see if they can do anything with it.
