Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Preview: A silver linings playbook

Coming off an extended break due to the NBA Cup quarterfinals, the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics are back in action tonight at Fiserv Forum. Trending in opposite directions—the Bucks are 2-8 over their last ten games while the Celtics are 8-2—tonight’s grapple of the greens will be a difficult one for the Bucks, but offers the chance of righting the ship (or at least grabbing the compass).

Where We’re At

In literature, pathetic fallacy refers to the attribution of human emotions to naturally occurring things—such

as the weather—and is often symbolic, representing the internal states of characters. It’s fitting then that the National Weather Service issued a winter weather advisory for Wisconsin for the days prior to tonight’s game, indicating conditions that were expected to cause inconveniences. After all, nearly everything about this season has been an inconvenience for the Bucks (and their fans). An Opening Night injury to Kevin Porter Jr. Taurean Prince being ruled out indefinitely. Giannis succumbing to injury on two occasions. Key players performing worse than expectations (see Trent Jr., Gary). Losing streaks. Trade rumours. In fact, it’s surprising that a winter weather warning wasn’t issued instead. Of course, this means that things could get worse. So, as the Bucks meander in a darkened present, they absolutely must heed its lessons; find the silver linings. So far, there’s been at least two. Amidst the storm, Porter has returned like greased lightning and looks to be one half of a foundational backcourt alongside Ryan Rollins, who’s oozed comfort and star potential in a bigger role. Will there be others? Who knows—that’s why they play the games. But what better way to start finding out than a battle against old foes in green?

Winners of five straight, the Boston Celtics sit third in the Eastern Conference after many pegged them as a play-in team following Jayson Tatum’s Achilles tear and the team’s subsequent offseason moves. Boston currently has the fourth best point differential (+6.7) in the entire league and has shown similar ability to win on the road (7-5) as it has at home (8-4). Unsurprisingly, Jaylen Brown has led the way, averaging 29.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 4.9 APG, and has recently been awarded Eastern Conference Player of the Week for his efforts. But perhaps the biggest factor in the Celtics’ run has been the play of Derrick White, who is surging after an early season funk adjusting to an enhanced role. Outside of Brown and White—and Payton Pritchard, who has also stepped up, averaging career-highs in the three major counting stats—the Celtics have thrived by shooting the long ball (a league-leading 16.0 makes per game) and protecting the rock (just 11.8 turnovers per game, best in the league). Consequently, the Celtics rank second in the league in offensive rating (122.0). Needless to say, this bodes ominously for a Bucks team that has struggled on the defensive end of the court.

Injury Report

For the Bucks, Taurean Prince (neck) and Giannis (calf) remain out. AJ Green (shoulder) is questionable after missing Saturday’s game against the Detroit Pistons.

For the Celtics, Jayson Tatum remains out, rehabilitating from his Achilles tear last season.

Player Position To Watch

If you were told that a Bucks’ offseason signee was leading the (non-Giannis) frontcourt in minutes per game at this point of the season, you probably wouldn’t be surprised. After all, they’d just waived and stretched Damian Lillard to acquire Myles Turner in free agency. They’d also just re-signed Bobby Portis to a three-year deal, so it wouldn’t be that surprising if it was him. But no one would’ve thought it would be Jericho Sims. Yet, here we are. Over the last five games, Sims has led the Bucks’ bigs in minutes, averaging 26.4 MPG to Turner’s 23.2 MPG and Portis’ 22.4 MPG. To his credit, Sims has played quite well—he’s easily the best rebounder of the three, the best on-ball defender, and nearly never misses from the field. He even hit a game-winning go-ahead and-one against the Detroit Pistons.

But Sims playing “quite well” is more about him exceeding expectations than it is about him actually contributing to the Bucks’ success. And why Doc Rivers is favouring Sims recently after the team invested so much in Turner is baffling. At 27 years of age, it’s not as if he’s a blue-chip, up-and-coming talent that screams foundational piece moving forward if he’s just given the opportunity. There’s really nothing in the advanced numbers that point to Sims being better now either. So, is this a ploy to find another silver lining and showcase Sims in the hope of a future trade? Is it a knee-jerk reaction to the team’s struggles on the boards and, more generally, the defensive end? Or is it about sending a message to Turner to improve his play? We all want that and, granted, Turner has been underwhelming, but it’s not as if Rivers is putting Turner in positions to excel either—he’s largely been relegated to standing on the three-point line on offence and poorly utilised on defence too (bring back the drop!). Tonight then, pay close attention to which of Milwaukee’s bigs gets the most of the minutes and, just as importantly, if there are any signs that Rivers looks to better utilise his $109m man in the middle.