If you had asked me in August if by Week 16 the Chiefs would be 6-8, in third place in the AFC West while the Broncos were dominating the entire AFC at 12-2, I would have said, “Yes, that is exactly how I see this playing out!”
Just kidding! No way would I have said that. In fact, I’m still in disbelief that the Broncos — who always seem to win in the most impossible and heart attack-inducing ways — are the tops in the entire league. But I am not complaining. And neither is Topher Doll, former MHR
writer and best stats guy on the planet, who is our veteran UFGer this week! Like me, he isn’t sure if he can trust the Broncos’ offense (because they cause a heart attack nearly every game), but he’s excited to watch it try. Especially this week in a battle against a defense that lives and dies by turnovers.
Sunday’s matchup against the Jaguars could be a defensive dogfight or an offensive shoot-out, depending on which team shows up for both squads. Whatever it is, here’s to the Broncos coming out on top.
We better hear you, Broncos Country!
Week 16: Broncos vs. Jaguars
MHR – A great win over the Packers. What were you thinking after the first quarter versus after the third?
TopherDoll: I don’t think I’ve been this frustrated with a team that keeps winning in a while, haha. The Packers are a good team with a strong defense so I wasn’t too surprised by such a poor 1st quarter but the 2nd and 3rd quarter explosion of offense, by both teams, made for a really exciting middle of the game. The 4th quarter once again showed the hot-and-cold nature of the Broncos offense, but it was certainly exciting.
MHR – The Jaguars are good. But are they good enough to beat the Broncos? Are these teams pretty even in their ability to win this or is one a clear dominant opponent?
TopherDoll: The Broncos are living on a razor’s edge with their games against quality opponents (they have yet to beat a team with a winning record by more than 8), so I think the Jags are good enough to beat the Broncos as their record in one-score games is so fickle (just as Chief fans didn’t want to admit last year and I’m sure Broncos fans won’t want to admit this offseason). I do think the Jags are a flawed but exciting team, which is almost the most scary. They can hang 30+ on the best team out there with tons of explosive plays on offense or defense but then score under 15 if they don’t hit those big plays or if they have turnovers. I am still wary of Coen and while Lawrence has obviously improved under him, the offense is still maddeningly inconsistent. And that defense seems to live or die on turnovers, which isn’t an easy way to win in the NFL. But with the close games the Broncos play, one turnover or huge throw from Lawrence could turn the tide for the Jags.
MHR – Bo Nix had the best game of his career last week, but Trevor Lawrence has been on a three-game run as well. Which QB do you think has a better command of his offense?
TopherDoll: I will say Lawrence because he’s been asked to run a more complex offense and carry a bigger share of the offense with his decision-making. I do think Nix is having a nice season, not the All-Pro or MVP some predicted, but nice as he’s settled into that top tier game manager role that Payton envisioned when he was drafted. He’s not being asked to do a lot of adjustments at the line, just let the play come to him – and if not, then don’t make a mistake. Lawrence, as expected from a QB in his fifth season and his third offensive scheme (though he’s only a year older than Nix), is being tasked with more in an offense meant to task the QB to read the defense and maneuver the pocket.
Not a knock on Nix, he is both only in his 2nd season and has a different role in the offense but I think what Lawrence is doing is the more impressive achievement, especially considering the turmoil (some self inflicted) around him during his career.
MHR – Nix threw to four different wide receivers last week. Is spreading the ball around like that a good tactic to keep the defense guessing? The Jags secondary has been averaging three turnovers a game with a 10+ turnover ratio that Sean Payton said meant Nix would need to be “on point.” Despite Nix’s success, he still often has some scary throws…is that going to be a problem for our QB and this offense?
TopherDoll: Nix has gotten lucky this season with turnover-worthy plays going his way – like dropped interceptions, fumbles and tipped balls – and the scary thing is that is exactly where the Jags thrive. The Jags defense reminds me a bit of the old Lovie Smith defenses (though, his was consistent for a decade, and this is just one season) where they thrive on being well coached and finding/creating turnovers. Back then you’d see Peanut Tillman, Brian Urlacher, Mike Brown all flying around tearing apart offenses and creating turnovers consistently. This defense reminds me a bit of that style.
Saying that, I do think the nature of their defense leads to inconsistency, and if they don’t hit the QB or force turnovers they can start to allow a lot of points (see the Chiefs or Rams games). I think this could be one of those games where Payton reels Nix in a bit, not asking as much of him and letting the game stay close and then putting his foot on the gas at the last minute to try and steal that 4th quarter win again. The Broncos have six games with 125 or more rushing yards, it isn’t always a recipe for success but in a game against a team that needs turnovers to win consistently I think leaning on the run game might be a good idea.
MHR – Bucky Brooks noted that the Jags front “throttles the running game” and often forces QBs to pass in long-yardage scenarios. How does that approach help or hurt Nix? How do you expect RJ Harvey and the other running backs to do against the Jags defense?
TopherDoll: As I said above, getting the run game going will make life easier for a guy like Nix who can get greedy or flustered sometimes and make bad decisions. The Jags do have an average 3rd down distance of 7.22 yards needed for their opponent to convert for a 1st down, 10th longest in the NFL so I can see where Brooks is coming from. I do think his conclusion is a bit wrong though, while the Jags do have a very good 1st and 2nd down defense, their 3rd down defense is actually pretty bad despite having so many 3rd and longs. The Jags allow 3rd down conversions 41.9% of the time, near the bottom of the league. So while their 3rd down distance is really good, teams still convert pretty regularly. So with regularly missed tackles or blown coverages I think the Broncos, like most other teams, will be fine on 3rd down despite the longer distances, as long as Nix doesn’t go too crazy.
MHR – Is this a good game for Evan Engram to show up again? Is every game? 😉
TopherDoll: Oh man, as someone who felt the Engram signing was doomed to fail, as most fans of his past teams knew when he signed here, I really wanted it to succeed because having a good tight end makes things easier. While he is 3rd on the team in receiving yards, it is another mediocre year at best for Engram as drops, poor blocking and mental mistakes have plagued him all year long. Luckily, Payton has done his best to not force things to Engram as he did early in the season, to the detriment of the offense, and shifted Engram from being the focal point he bragged about to being a supplemental piece. Just please, not 3rd down throws his way, he’s so bad on 3rd down — just four 1st down conversions on 19 targets with only 9 receptions and almost as many drops. 1st and 2nd down, sure in moderation, but no 3rd down targets, please!
MHR – Which defensive unit will be the most important on Sunday – pass rush? D-line? Secondary? Linebackers?
TopherDoll: Pass rush, as it has been all season. The Broncos linebackers continue to struggle and while the secondary has been a pleasant surprise, a lot of their success can be attributed to the Broncos ‘dominating pass rush forcing bad throws. Not a bad thing, all 32 secondaries in the NFL get better when they have a good pass rush to back them up, but to me, if the Broncos didn’t have such a great pass rush up front the defense isn’t built to hold up with the current scheme and personnel. VJ’s scheme is the same it always has been — the difference between his current success and consistent failure in his past is now he has the line that can pressure at will and make the job of the backend a lot easier.
MHR – The defense, despite its red zone coverage, has definitely given up a lot of big plays. Do those make you nervous or is that just part of the bend-don’t-break mentality? Which defensive back needs to have the best day on Sunday?
TopherDoll: Like I mentioned above, the secondary is good but is still missing some talent behind the big names, and when the pass rush doesn’t get there, the defense breaks down and the Broncos are allowing a lot of yards after the catch due to linebacker failure. The secondary has a few huge breakdowns each game, which leads to those scary moments. The Jags also thrive with those broken plays and Lawrence can attack downfield when he wants to with that huge arm.
MHR – What kind of impact – and success – do you expect the pass rush to have on Trevor Lawrence? Can Bonitto and Cooper get to him or is pressure enough?
TopherDoll: Lawrence is one of the quickest passers out there, getting the ball out fast and on time as his line hasn’t always held up. He is sacked and hit pretty often as well but between his rapid fire release, quick decision making and an offensive line just barely holding up, I don’t see this as a 4+ sack game unless the Broncos get a lead early and can pin their ears back and just throw everything at Lawrence.
MHR – Aside from Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Jr., has been a huge weapon much of the season. What do the Broncos need to do to keep him from a big day?
TopherDoll: I’m always of a split mind when it comes to run defense. All the research shows that it is fine to allow a ton of rushing yards as long as you bottle the passing offense up (famously burned into my brain by Bill Belichick and the Pats back in 2013 when he allowed Knowshon Moreno to run roughshod against them but frustrated Peyton and forced him into mistakes). But as someone who hates to watch a defense get run over, I really want to shut down the run game. Luckily while Etienne is a very solid and reliable back, the Jags under Coen are not the best run team (not that his scheme requires it), and while they rank 4th in rushing attempts they only rank 17th in rushing yards. I may regret saying this, but I’m not too worried about it.
MHR- I know it’s not a Chiefs week, and it’s not good to look ahead, but is this Denver’s division yet…or is there still way too much to prove?
TopherDoll: I don’t think there is much left to prove. While I don’t trust the Broncos to win in the playoffs with this style of close wins, as we saw with the Chiefs (and history in general), close wins always catch up to you. But luckily the Chiefs have been hurt all season and collapsed under that weight. And while the Chargers are good. they are two games back. Now if the Broncos lose this one while the Chargers take down the Cowboys, I might get a bit worried but right now this is the Broncos’ division.
MHR – The Broncos have clinched a playoff spot but are still working to get that No. 1 seed. How important is it for the playoffs to go through Denver?
TopherDoll: I don’t think home field is as important as playing one less game. While Denver has been better at home than away this year I think the close win nature of the Broncos success makes failure against the best teams (you know, the playoffs) much more likely, and playing one less game against a good team is much more valuable with the current construction of the team. Having said that, playing every game at home in the playoffs is still a nice feather in the cap.
Predictions
Stats for BO NIX? 275 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Stats for each Broncos RB? With how much of a rotation we’ve seen and no true bell cow back, I’ll say 50 for each and give Nix 25.
Number of yards receiving/TDs for the receivers? Got to keep feeding Sutton and Franklin so 100 for Sutton and 75 for Franklin with a touchdown apiece
Longest FG for Lutz? 47
Number of sacks to Trevor Lawrence? Let us give the defense 3
Broncos player with the most tackles? Singleton
Who gets the first sack of the game for the Broncos? Allen
How many INTs/FF/FR for the Jaguars D? 1/2/1
How many INTs/FF/FR for the Broncos’ D? 1/1/1
How many penalties for the Broncos? These are the top two penalized teams so likely a flag fest
Final Score? Broncos 30, Jags 25
The Favorites
Favorite John Elway win outside of the Super Bowls? Beating Cleveland in the 1989 conference championship
Favorite Broncos win ever? That 1997 Super Bowl
Favorite Peyton Manning win? Beating the Ravens in the revenge game to start the 2013 season
Team you love to beat the most in the AFC West? Raiders
Coach you laugh at the most in the NFL? Kevin Stefanski, can’t think of any other coach who’d still have a job with his track record
Coach you most want to throat punch? Ehh, I don’t hate any coach on that level
Team you hate to lose to the most in the rest of the AFC? Steelers or Pats
NFC team you could cheer for in the Super Bowl? There are a few fun teams over there like the Bucs, Lions and Seahawks
NFC team you want to face more than any other in the Super Bowl? Seahawks, time for revenge!
Favorite game so far this season? Beating the Giants, I know they aren’t a good team but it was an exciting game
Toughest opponent to play in the playoffs? Bills, such a complete team and while the Pats would also be scary I think the lack of playoff experience for that roster makes them a tad weaker there
Favorite Broncos player on the current roster? Courtland Sutton
Favorite Broncos player of all time not named John Elway (unless it really is John Elway)? Champ Bailey
Favorite new guy/rookie on the team? Troy Franklin
Favorite odd stat for NFL teams? Not really an odd stat but I think this season has given me more heart trouble than almost any season since Tebow. Winning is good, winning close is hard on my soul, haha!
Food/Snack you have to eat on game day? Anything salty
Favorite game analyst/commentator? Buck and Aikman
Which players are on your Broncos Mount Rushmore?
Always changing but right now it is Elway, Von, Champ and TD. I know that is a lot of recent guys so not a knock on guys like Meck, Jackson, Grad or Little. Tomorrow that could be my list.
How did you become a Broncos fan?
Long story, forgot most of it. But does anyone remember their birth, those early memories, lost to the sands of time. But mostly it was the late 2000s, so I guess me forgetting is more about my foggy memory than anything else.
