What can we possibly tell you about the state of the Florida State Seminole football program that has a 7-17 record over the past two seasons and has gone bowl-less that you don’t already know? What can we possibly tell you about Coach Mike Norvell’s current status, whose contract with a yearly $10.5 million salary runs until December 31, 2031, that you don’t already know? Will a winning season record and bowl appearance in 2026 be enough to cool his seat, or is he a dead man walking regardless?
The Florida State Seminoles will open their 2026 football season by hosting the New Mexico State Aggies at Doak Campbell Stadium Saturday night. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. and will be televised on the CW network and streamed by ESPN. FSU and New Mexico State are meeting for only the 2nd time, with the Seminoles shutting out the Aggies 36-0 in their previous meeting during the 1964 season.
The 2026 FSU offense will feature a new yet experienced dual-threat quarterback in Ashton Daniels, coming in with 25 previous starts at Stanford (22) and Auburn (3). Daniels will be protected by a completely revamped but also experienced offensive line, under first-year offensive line coach Herb Hand, that has potentially recorded a combined 106 starts.
FSU also added running back Quintrevion Wisner, who rushed for 1,660 yards, as well as 457 yards on 66 receptions, during his last two seasons at Texas. Wisner brings added depth and is expected to be part of a three-headed Seminole rushing attack, along with Ousmane Kromah and Samuel Singleton Jr., that ranked 11th in the country with 218.7 rushing yards per game last season.
The 2025 FSU defense, after starting the season 3-0 and allowing only 10 points per game during that stretch, finished the season with a 2-7 record while giving up an average of 22 points per game for the season. The Seminole defense only allowed 10.2 points per game in their five wins while giving up 30.4 points per game in their seven losses last season.
Second-year Defensive Coordinator Tony White lost eight of his top 12 tacklers from 2025 but was able to add 7 defensive transfers expected to contribute, including 3 new defensive backs.
Possibly the biggest addition is Southern Miss transfer linebacker Chris Jones, who has been praised and has been impressive during fall camp. In 2025, Jones ranked 7th in the nation in tackles; he had a team-high 134 tackles, one interception, 3.5 sacks, and one forced fumble. Jones also had double-digit tackles in 8 games in 2025, including four of the last five. In his 22 games and 13 starts, Jones recorded 180 tackles, 12 for loss, 4.5 sacks, and two interceptions in his two seasons at Southern Miss.
Head Coach Tony Sanchez is bringing his New Mexico State Aggies, who play in the CUSA conference, to Tallahassee to earn a $1.4 million payday and what is expected to be an easy FSU win.
However, hopefully the Seminole coaches have made the players aware of the Aggies’ 2023 game at Auburn, where they came in as 26-point dogs and embarrassed the Tigers by dominating them with 414 total yards (213 rushing yards, 201 passing yards) to the War Eagles’ 213 total yards (65 rushing yards, 148 passing yards) and leaving Alabama with a 31-10 upset victory.
Some names to know for New Mexico State’s offense are: QB Trey Hedden, a Furman transfer making his first start; TK King (W/R), who led the team in receiving stats and earned preseason first-team All-Conference USA honors from Phil Steele and Athlon Sports; and running back James Jones and wide receiver Devin Ellison, both transfers.
The defense is led by DE/Jack Gabe Peterson, a fifth-year defensive leader, and linebacker Sone Aupiu, a 3-year starter at linebacker with 68 total tackles in 2025.
Florida State is trending as a 31.5-point favorite, with the over/under around 52.5 points.
SEMINOLE FLASHBACK: From the Tallahassee Democrat, October 4, 1964, page 1, by Bill McGrotha.
TALLAHASSEE, FL – Florida State stood proudly, if apprehensively, this morning as the only unbeaten, untied, unscored upon major college football team in America.
Saturday night the Seminoles cut out a 36-0 victory over New Mexico State, an aroused bunch that made things fairly interesting on a rain-soaked field.
- Read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown.
- Then look over and digest all the FREE PRE-GAME CONTENT we’ve posted leading up to this game.
- We would love to hear your thoughts about how you feel about this game and your final score prediction in the comments.
- Jordan Silversmith (season record: 0-0)
Football is back! Or should I not be excited? We can get to the doom and gloom as the season goes on, but for now, Saturday night should be a positive start for what is predicted to be a tumultuous season.
NMSU is not very good and does not return much. Florida State’s main concern will be the FSU OL vs. NMSU DL. The Aggies use a JACK, just like Tony White, and will try to use their athleticism to disrupt the Noles up front. But the Seminole talent will be too much, probably the only time I can write that sentence this year, and at least head coach Mike Norvell will have eight days of goodwill heading into FSU’s Labor Day matchup against SMU. Take the over and Florida State to cover.
FSU 45, NMSU 10
- Tony Morris (season record: 0-0)
I don’t think this one’s close, honestly.
FSU opens as a 30+ point favorite, and I’ve watched Norvell squads handle overmatched non-conference teams before — 77-3 over East Texas A&M, 66-10 over Kent State, just last year alone.
I like what I’ve heard about Ashton Daniels through camp, and this defense should answer any doubts about them, so I expect this to feel more like a statement game than a real test.
FSU 45, New Mexico 10
- Curt Weiler (season record 0-0)
This is one of those games that I won’t read into too positively if FSU takes care of business and routs New Mexico State, but will definitely read into if it’s a good bit closer than it should be in a game where FSU is favored by ~ 30 points.
New Mexico State, which plays in arguably the worst FBS conference, has won seven total games in Tony Sanchez’s first two seasons leading them. We all have some questions about this FSU roster but they shouldn’t show up as incredibly concerning YET.
After Ashton Daniels’ start, let’s see if this game gets in control enough to see Malachi Marshall’s debut. That could be what makes this the most interesting thing to monitor in this game.
FSU 45, New Mexico State 13
- Jessi Wynn (season record: 0-0)
Coming off two straight losing seasons, Mike Norvell and Florida State have a lot to prove in 2026, starting with Saturday’s season opener against New Mexico State. After an offseason centered around changing the standard and doing the little things right, this will be FSU’s first opportunity to show that progress on the field.
Offensively, FSU has plenty of weapons around Ashton Daniels. Duce Robinson, Micahi Danzy and Landen Thomas give Daniels multiple options, and I expect the Seminoles to establish their offense early. Defensively, players like Ashlynd Barker and Kevin Wynn should have opportunities to make an immediate impact.
There are still plenty of questions surrounding FSU entering Week 0, but this is a game the Seminoles should control at home. I expect some early-season mistakes, but ultimately FSU’s talent takes over and the Seminoles open the 2026 season with a convincing win.
FSU 52, New Mexico State 17
- LastNoleOfKrypton (season record: 0-0)
The Aggies feature four new starters on the offensive line and an experienced back seven that was top-20 in the FBS last season in takeaways. They hope the new offensive line will be enough to turn around one of the worst rushing attacks in football last year averaging a dismal 2.6 rushing yards per attempt. What FSU struggled to defend last year they struggled to execute so why a high-scoring affair?
Because week zero usually features things that can lead to short fields and opportunities to score. I also fully expect the speed from FSU’s skill positions to make the difference; guys like Singleton, Lopez, and Danzy can really run and it only takes one missed tackle to turn a first down into a touchdown vs. the Aggies. New Mexico State plays a bend don’t break style of defense; there should be plenty of opportunities for Singleton, Kromah, and Wisner to break off explosive runs.
FSU rolls at home to start 2026 in a positive fashion.
FSU 40, New Mexico State 10
- NoleThruandThru (season record: 0-0)
Here’s my prediction (might be a year-long thing):
I’m just here so I don’t get fined.
FSU 41, NMSU 10
- Tim Scribble (season record: 0-0)
FSU should win this game easily, and if it doesn’t, that’s a season-long concern. Saying that, don’t base your season expectations on this game if FSU wins big, which they should. I’ll take the Seminoles by 30+.
FSU 45, NMSU 10
- Jon Marchant (season record: 0-0)
The hopes are not high for Mike Norvell’s squad this season but they should still bring more than New Mexico St can handle in what could be a sloppy opener.
FSU 36, NMSU 13
- Matt Minnick (season record: 0-0)
This is the second least enthusiastic I’ve been about a college football season since I became aware of what college football was as a thigh high. Only the 2020 season—when we didn’t even know if there would be a game played week to week—eclipses my current level of apathy. Yay.
From what I’ve read, New Mexico State has a pretty solid back 7 that was able to create 24 takeaways last year. And their QB who transferred in from Furman might be the best passer in the stadium. But what they lack is any resemblance of talented beef on the DL. Hopefully Mike Norvell has learned something from his Jacksonville State nightmare a few years ago and runs the ball 45 times. And hopefully he’s learned from about half the games last season that we don’t need to get too cute in the red zone. You’d have to think that’s the case, right? Right?
Florida State 37, NMSU 17
- Frank DaNole (season record: 0-0)
FSU will run the ball repeatedly against NMSU’s less talented defense, while at the same time trying to keep Daniels’ tape at a minimum for next weeks game vs. SMU. With FSU’s stable of running backs, I’m hoping not to see any designated running plays for Daniels this week.
I expect the game to be in garbage time mid-way through the 3rd quarter and the coaches should be able to give the backups significant snaps against the overmatched Aggies.
FSU Seminoles 51, New Mexico 16
- Perry Kostidakis (season record: 0-0)
Somehow, this offseason has felt longer than most any other I can rememeber. It’s not due to apathy, either; otherwise it would’ve felt way too short. My rudimentary psychoanalysis of the feeling is the frustation of 2025 — 2024 was a wash, but it was one that instantly presented itself that way. Last season, though, the stats told the tale of a way better team than what was actually shown on the field. I know, I know, if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, I’d be able to enjoy snacks at the movies much more often, but change a few plays and Florida State is at least an eight-win team last year. Instead, all the little ugly things that have haunted the Norvell tenure came together in those moments and sunk a season that would have gotten things back on track.
In my opinion, this team, on paper, presents itself better than 2025. The offensive line and secondary are still my question marks, but there are a lot of pieces to like on both sides of the ball. I’m excited to see what the defensive line looks like, how the receiver room has shaken out and what kind of energy Ousmane Kromah is coming out with to start the year. I won’t be staking my season-long opinion on the outcome of this game (well, unless things really go wrong), but it’ll be fantastic to get an actual first data point in what this team is, rather than going off interviews and two glimpses into practice.
FSU 37, New Mexico State 6
Florida State Seminoles vs. New Mexico State Aggies
Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation
- Line of Scrimmage: Previewing FSU’s matchup with New Mexico State
- FSU announces field sponsorship partnership with Progressive
- Column: As pressure builds, Mike Norvell keeps retreating further into his shell of reduced access
- Media: “We want to start with our absolute best foot forward:” Norvell, Duce Robinson speak ahead of FSU football’s season opener
- Depth Chart: FSU not planning to release depth charts this season, Norvell says
- Column: No more redshirts: 5-for-5 rule opens the door for FSU football’s newcomers
- Column:If you’re too big to do the little things, you’re too little to do the big things:” Duce Robinson looking to help lead FSU past last season
- FSU running back Quintrevion “Tre” Wisner named to Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award watch list
- TN Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs New Mexico State Aggies
- How To Watch: FSU vs. New Mexico State: How to watch, stream
- Media Monday: Head coach Mike Norvell previews season opener: “Our first opportunity to put on display the 2026 Florida State football team”
- Column: 2026 will be a referendum on Florida State’s spending strategy
- Positions: 2026 FSU football position previews
- Florida State football roundtable: Seven big questions heading into the 2026 season
- Schedule: 2026 FSU football schedule previews
- Betting: 2026 ACC Championship odds, dark horse, and projections
- Mike Norvell’s FSU salary, buyout info
Florida State Seminoles vs. New Mexico State Aggies: How to watch, stream, odds
Date
- Saturday, August 29th
Time
- 7:00 p.m. ET
Watch/Stream
- Channel: The CW
- Stream: WatchESPN/ESPN App
Listen
- Seminoles Radio Network
- FSU Broadcast: : Ch. 117 or 194/SXM App
Spread
- ~ -31.5, Florida State
Over/Under
- ~ 52.5 points
Weekly Tomahawk Nation Member Guest Picker
This week’s TN member guest picker is Yapo.SD (FSU Alumni, Spring ‘93) and long-time TN member who joined May 30, 2012:
The dog days of summer are finally coming to an end, and our young Seminole football team is clamoring to hit someone, anyone other than their own teammates. FSU’s offense will highlight the weapons they have, and we score on most possessions with the O-line having a ‘showing off party” to every Nole fan’s delight. TD’s made by Duce, Danzy, Ous, Sam, and Austin.
The first series for our defense is over in less than 8 plays, and that continues all game long. Sacks by Rylan, Jalen, Desir Twins, Jones, and an INT by Jabril. The halftime score will be 35-0, and by the end of the game, every Seminole across the globe is convinced this is the team to “Bring the Natty back to Tally.”
Final score: 56-0… Getcha some NOLE NATION!!!
